NEWS
FORTUNE NAMES CARDANO A TOP CRYPTO PROJECT😱😱😱
Cardano $ADA has been recognized by @FortuneMagazine as one of 30 projects pushing the digital asset ecosystem forward.
Cardano was featured in the "Blockchains & Protocols" category, earning recognition from the publisher behind the iconic Fortune 500 list.
Probably a surge in price for #SPCX on launch (no pun intended)
Then a big pullback after the initial hype wears off, that likely finds a low near EOY aligning with the typical correction stocks get near the end of midterm years.
Long term bullish on SpaceX regardless of short term price action.
A lot of people have lost a lot of money betting against Elon Musk.
I think supporting companies that are changing the world for the better is a good thing.
🚨TETHER IS TURNING ROBOTS INTO CRYPTO USERS
The USDT issuer is building wallet tech into Neura’s robots, allowing them to receive crypto after completing tasks.
They can also use the wallets to pay other machines without human intervention.
Neura is targeting 5M robots by 2030, with $1.2B in orders already lined up.
SpaceX prices Friday at a $1.75 trillion valuation. The biggest IPO in history. After actually digging into the filing, my call is avoid or short, and here is why it is built as a trap for retail.
Start with what you are actually buying. SpaceX is three companies in one. The rocket business, which is fine. Starlink, the orbital internet arm, which is genuinely the gem and the one part doing something special. And xAI, the Grok and Twitter AI lab, which is lagging badly and burning money. On any normal measure, EBITDA, revenue, the thing is very overvalued. The revenue does not justify $1.75 trillion. Most of the move from here is hype, because it is Elon, the biggest retail-followed name on earth not named Trump.
Then the part that made up my mind. Two red flags:
1. 30% of the float is going to retail. Normal is 5 to 10%. This is three to six times the usual retail allocation. They want as many regular investors holding this as possible, way more than a normal deal.
2. Nasdaq changed its own rules right before the listing so SpaceX fast-tracks into the Nasdaq 100 just 15 trading days after it starts trading. SpaceX is the first company to ever qualify, and it lands around July 7th. Nasdaq rewrote the rulebook specifically so every passive fund tracking the index has to buy SpaceX automatically, regardless of price. That is manufactured exit liquidity, and the tell is that the S&P 500 is declining to auto-include it.
Here is the timing, because this is where most people get it wrong. The bubble is not over yet. It does not end until all three mega-IPOs are public, SpaceX, then Anthropic, then OpenAI, and that is five to six months out, into year-end. SpaceX itself might even hold or pump in the first month, the way a crypto TGE does, right up until the index inclusion forces the passive bid. The danger is not this week. It is later this year, once the last IPO lists and the exit liquidity is spent. That is the top. And by then the Nasdaq, stuffed with SpaceX and every other AI mega-cap, is the index that gets hurt the most. When I de-risk later this cycle, I am not holding the Nasdaq.
Me personally, I will put a tiny amount into the tokenized pre-IPO and a Hyperliquid position, purely to learn how those instruments convert into real shares once it lists. Not a money trade. There is no edge chasing a deal engineered to hand retail the bag at the top.
Bitcoin is sitting right on the 200-week moving average, around $61,300. I want to be precise about why that matters, because most people quote the wrong line.
The 200-week simple moving average, not the exponential one, has marked the cycle bottom in 2015, in 2018 and in 2022. Every major bear in bitcoin's history has bottomed at or just below this line and then turned. It is the closest thing the asset has to a structural floor, because it represents roughly four years of average price, which is one full cycle. We are testing it right now, and bitcoin has already lost the 50-week moving average on weekly closes, which is the line that historically separates a bull market from a bear market. So the structure is bearish, and we are in the part of the cycle where you find out who actually had a plan.
The thing I keep repeating, because it is the thing people get wrong, is that this crash is macro, not crypto. There is no FTX here, no Luna, no single blowup to point at. What happened is the Fed pivoted to hiking, the hottest CPI in three years landed, December hike odds sit near 70%, and nobody serious, not Nomura, not Morgan Stanley, not JPMorgan, is pricing cuts for 2026. A hiking cycle does not change bitcoin's bear structure. The 200-week bottom and the roughly twelve-month bear clock still apply. What the regime changes is the depth. Hawkish macro means the drawdown can go deeper than a clean cycle would suggest before it finds the floor.
So here are the two lanes I'm watching. The bull lane: bitcoin holds $61K, reclaims $69K which was prior-cycle resistance, then $76K as the measured move, then $87K which is the 200-day average. The bear lane: it loses $61K on a weekly close, and the next real floor is $53,600, which is the realized price, the on-chain average cost basis for the entire network. Below that, mid-$40s, which would be roughly 30% under the 200-week line, the same kind of overshoot 2022 produced.
I'm not trying to call the exact bottom, because precision is a trap. But there is a convergence I trust as a signal, and it has marked the last four bottoms: price at the realized cost basis around $53,600, the MVRV-Z score collapsing toward zero, and bitcoin trading about 16% below the 200-week line. When those three line up, that is the zone, historically. On-chain, supply in loss just passed supply in profit for the first time this cycle, with around 8 million coins underwater. That is pain, and pain is what the setup is made of.
None of those triggers are sentiment. They're levels. That's the whole point. In a bear market the edge isn't having a smarter opinion about where price goes. It's deciding your levels in advance and being willing to do nothing until price comes to them.
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