One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"โwhether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasnโt sharp enough down the stretch. Iโm sure thatโs true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollsterโone of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday weโd lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (Sheโs also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcementโby focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, โI told you soโ: youโre right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Letโs take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Preaching @gravystream and making sure everybody we meet understand the rave that is coming. We are not building another App, We are building an ecosystem that revolves around your digital lifestyle. payment, food, shopping, cross-Border/ stable-coin transaction. All in one place ๐๐๐
Preaching @gravystream and making sure everybody we meet understand the rave that is coming. We are not building another App, We are building an ecosystem that revolves around your digital lifestyle. payment, food, shopping, cross-Border/ stable-coin transaction. All in one place ๐๐๐
Walahi politics is not for the faint hearted bro is describing subsidy and still insist is not subsidy ๐คฃ๐คฃ when politician say good morning just go check outside e fit be like night ๐คฃ๐คฃ
BREAKING: The Federal Government Announces a 30-Day Discount on Petrol Through NNPC stations
โWe are offering a discount on petrol dispensed by NNPC limited for the next 30 days in the first instance with priority for public transporters nationwide. So, itโs not a subsidy, government is just saying we sell to you at cost.โ
- Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele
Edo pikin is taking over Eko Hotel this Sunday! ๐ฅ
And Gravy is giving out FREE tickets to the show. ๐
If youโve been looking for a sign to step outside this weekend, this is it. ๐
Whatever you do, know your rights as a citizen of this country. And when necessary, get a competent lawyer who will ensure those rights are protected and properly exercised.