Jake

Amateur Economist | Nodler | Software @alphaarcade @lofty_ai

[Jake @DevJake20]

The issue here is not the number of validators, but the staked dollar amount.

The security (and decentralization) of a chain is determined by how much capital it would take to own 90% of the staked token (enough to change/control protocol code)

By these metrics, it would take ~160mil to buy and control the network (w assumption that price is constant when buying, which is obviously not true)

Why would institutions and sovereign nations put billions and trillions of dollars of value on a network that is secured by ~160m dollars?

They won’t, and is why Silvio is building a chain that doesn’t require token price as a security input

$ALGO price is directly linked to network security, further we go down the less secure the network is

[Chainspect @chainspect_app]

🛡️ @AlgoFoundation is now the #4 most decentralized blockchain by validator count

With 1,542 validators, Algorand now ranks fourth among all blockchains tracked by Chainspect

📊 https://t.co/zTwQ0RQrN4

[Jake @DevJake20]

@frugalbc You think they’d spend billions of dollars to build it just to subsidize it for everyone forever??

They’re getting people addicted then jacking up the price. Tale old as time in business..

[Jake @DevJake20]

@matthew_sigel How does this compare to all commodity prices though??

With CPI at 3.7% YoY and PPI at 6.3% YoY, wouldn't we expect to see this kind of action with all commodities? Especially ones primarily sold to other businesses?

[Jake @DevJake20]

Here's the current odds for who is going to control the house and senate after the midterms. Do you think anything is mispriced??

Learn more: https://t.co/wXNnlx0dfZ

[Jake @DevJake20]

New Midterms section in @alphaarcade to help you express your views AND be more informed on the current leaders in each race

[Jake @DevJake20]

Ooof.. PPI of 1.3% MoM and 6.3% YoY is crazy work

Say goodbye to growth stock valuations and the middle class

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

🔥 🔥 🔥

[Jake @DevJake20]

It’s almost like widespread tariffs, uncontrollable government spending (BBB), and a foreign war that creates a supply shock of oil causes inflation…

Who would’ve guessed

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 September CPI inflation rises to 3.7%, above expectations of 3.6%.

Core CPI inflation rises to 2.6%, also above expectations of 2.5%.

This marks the third highest US inflation reading since September 2023.

Headline CPI increased 0.6% month-over-month, up from 0.4% in August, while core CPI rose 0.3%, matching the prior month.

Gasoline prices surged 9.1% and accounted for over half of the monthly all-items increase.

The energy index jumped 5.2% on the month and is up 20.4% year-over-year.

Shelter rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.2% over the past year.

Food was unchanged on the month and up 2.5% year-over-year.

US inflation remains elevated.

[Jake @DevJake20]

Hey @TheStalwart !!

Heard you talking about how you might try to make an agentic trading bot on Kalshi. You should try it on @alphaarcade. It's all on chain and much much easier than doing it on Kalshi. Here is the sdk: https://t.co/naGBB5BfkQ

Hmu if you got questions :D

[Jake @DevJake20]

@pyteal_nerd Super Bowl MVP too

[Jake @DevJake20]

Drake Maye for MVP

[Jake @DevJake20]

This is a problem..

And will only get worse as the frontier models are increasingly closed off to the public due to "safety" reasons.

Maybe the safest option long term is for everyone to have these _dangerous_ frontier models. Similarly to how the idea of mutual destruction limits the use of nuclear weapons when multiple countries have them.

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

Expired: AI will take your job.

Tired: A human working with AI will take your job.

Wired: A human working with an unreleased model at an AI company will take your job.

[Jake @DevJake20]

How are flacon lattice sigs holding up in this new mathematical superintelligence age??

Any chance we see new theorems/algorithms that could “break” lattice cryptography in flacon sigs and change initial security assumptions?

@ChrisPeikert

[Jake @DevJake20]

“Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results.”

“My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies.”

"IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster)."

Ummmmmmmm….. concerning??

[Justin Drake @drakefjustin]

Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash.

Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase).

Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets.

IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster).

Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot.

Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time?

Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.)

Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once.

Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case.

I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026).

Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS.

Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security.

The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.

[Jake @DevJake20]

@outsider_algo @alphaarcade @PeraAlgoWallet Bug is all fixed. Please refresh and continue normal operations 😊

[Jake @DevJake20]

@outsider_algo @alphaarcade @PeraAlgoWallet While i implement the fix, you should be able to connect your pera wallet still if you go into the pera app, discover section, and go into alpha arcade from there. The signing that way is much easier too. Will be fixing this issue tho

[alpha arcade @alphaarcade]

We are SO exited to announce:

Sign in with Google, Apple, or Face ID.

Trade without wallets, seed phrases, or extensions.

We now abstract away the blockchain completely so the account stays yours, and the experience stays simple.

[Jake @DevJake20]

Sign in with Google, Apple, or Face ID.

Trade without wallets, seed phrases, or extensions.

@alphaarcade now abstracts away the blockchain so the account stays yours, and the experience stays simple.

[Jake @DevJake20]

@Urthoo Sick!!

[Jake @DevJake20]

Smart contracts enable conditional capital