Dex

No representations warranted, personal opinion only. Just having fun. 😁

[Dex @DexAust]

@CircumjovialLLC @AZ_Intel_ Seem to be lots of plane crashes lately🤔

[Dex @DexAust]

@DrunkDividends Is this real😂

[Dex @DexAust]

@TheRealMalgyver @Saffron_Sniper1 Agree. I'm uncomfortable with it too.

[Hated Moats Investor @HatedMoats]

SpaceX insiders: “Time to unload on retail.”

Retail: adds 50% to their net worth in 3 days

$SPCX insiders:

[Dex @DexAust]

@TheNkuckleHead @alphafox Exactly 👍

[Dex @DexAust]

@Mtobwh Exchange liquidity risk

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🚨 Yesterday, I published an article arguing that the drop in oil prices may be premature and tricky.

Today, Jeff Currie said the same thing on Bloomberg TV.

Currie is Carlyle's head of energy pathways.

Before that, 25 years running Goldman Sachs' global commodities research.
When he talks, the market listens.

His call: oil flows through Hormuz will not normalize until the end of 2026.

Not next week, not next month... End of year at the earliest.

Why?
De mining, Insurance, Tanker availability, Patrols, Inventory rebuilding.... It all takes months.

The strait was effectively closed after the February conflict knocked over 10 million barrels per day offline.

You don't reverse that with a signed memorandum.

Trump is optimistic about rapid resumption.

Currie is not.

The financial market is pricing the headline.

The physical market is pricing the reality.

I wrote yesterday that the inventory hole is too deep. That the recovery timeline is months, not days.

Currie just confirmed it on Bloomberg.

Read my full analysis.
Link in the comments 👇

[Kpler @Kpler]

No uptick in activity yet

The Strait of Hormuz continues to operate below normal commercial levels, despite signals of diplomatic progress. As of 15 June, only five confirmed crossings were recorded, largely consisting of low risk movements, moderate shadow fleet activity and three commercial voyages laden with DPP and steel cargo. While public reports indicate the US and Iran have reached an initial agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen the waterway, key operational questions remain unresolved, including transit security, navigation fees and safe passage arrangements. With no new vessel attacks reported since 10 June, risk conditions appear more stabilised, but low transit activity suggests market participants are still waiting for clear evidence of safety for a sustained operational normalisation.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/exPdxwhOMm

[MarineTraffic @MarineTraffic]

Strait of Hormuz activity remains below normal despite diplomatic progress

Vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains subdued, despite signs of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. #MarineTraffic data shows that only five confirmed crossings were recorded on 15 June. Traffic consisted primarily of low-risk transits, moderate shadow-fleet activity, and three commercial voyages carrying DPP and steel cargoes, according to Kpler.

▶️ Monitor vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz live on MarineTraffic.

[Dex @DexAust]

@profstonge Why are they the largest buyers?

[Dex @DexAust]

@Barchart Only going to continue under this Administration

[Dex @DexAust]

@zerohedge This could drag up futures too

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

SPCX options start trading tomorrow: it could gamma squeeze to 400, surpassing NVDA

[FinleyFinn @FionnualaFini]

This $50 wooden box is saving California vineyards $200K+ harvests ⚡
Barn owls inside = 3,000+ rodents gone per year. No more chemicals. Just smart nature.

[türkhafiza @turkhafiza2]

Fiber Optik kablolu Dronelar için kesin çözüm. Kaydedin lazım olur.

[Dex @DexAust]

@SamanthaLaDuc Still rising after hours

[Washingtons ghost @washghost1]

I think I learned something new today

[Dex @DexAust]

@EdConwaySky We are too dependent on oil 🤔

[Ed Conway @EdConwaySky]

📽️ What is Donald Trump's "Southern Highway"?
Here's the story of the secret trade route funnelling oil out of the Strait of Hormuz. Might it help explain why oil prices never went as stratospheric as some feared?
My latest primer on war in the Persian Gulf👇

[Dex @DexAust]

@CoffeeandaMike I think it has to be over this time. World reserves outside the US are low.