DICKSON MAGECHA

Financial Markets Enthusiast/ Afro-optimist/ Husband/Father. All views are my own & RTs are not endorsements

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

A world is supported by four things “… the learning of the wise, the justice of the great, the prayers of the righteous and the valor of the brave.." -Frank Herbert

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

@MetamateDaz @nyabinghidread There are 20 vacant homes for every homeless persons. Boomer will also add millions of houses as they start to exit the stage amid ahead of a near term population decline. Affordability and homelessnes are a function of many social factors - many of which billionaires can't fix.

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

This proposed provision in Kenya’s Finance Bill 2026—imposing a 30% final tax on gross rental income (residential and commercial) for non-resident/diaspora landlords, with zero deductions for repairs, maintenance, insurance, agent fees, mortgage interest, or other expenses—is highly counterproductive. It risks undermining a vital sector rather than supporting it.

Here’s why, drawing from official and credible sources

1. Massive Housing Deficit + Low Local Incomes = Reliance on External Capital
Kenya faces a housing deficit of over 2 million units, with annual demand of 200,000–250,000 units but supply of only ~50,000. Urbanization (4.4% annually) and population growth exacerbate this, with ~61% of urban households in slums.
Local real incomes are too low for most Kenyans to drive large-scale development or absorption, especially in the formal private sector. Diaspora and foreign investment have been essential to bridge the gap through construction, ownership, and rental supply. Taxing this capital punitively at source (gross, no deductions) directly attacks the funding needed for new supply.

2. Already Low Rental Yields + High Effective Tax Burden
Rental yields in Kenya are modest and under pressure. Gross yields often range from 4–8% in Nairobi (higher in satellite areas or student housing, lower in prime spots), with net yields frequently 2–6% after costs. Recent data shows averages around 5.5–7.4%, with some segments as low as 2.2% for studios.
A 30% gross tax (effective rate on actual profit often >50% after unavoidable expenses) would wipe out or reverse profitability for many leveraged investors. This comes on top of existing costs and capital gains tax on eventual sale. Investors facing negative or razor-thin returns will simply walk away.

3. Real Estate’s Multiplier Effects: Jobs, Taxes, and Construction Activity
Property investment has strong upstream and downstream impacts—jobs in construction, materials, professional services (architects, lawyers), and ongoing management/maintenance. It generates auxiliary tax revenue during building and operation far beyond direct rental tax.
Discouraging investors reduces this multiplier. Kenya already struggles with slack uptake of both government affordable housing units and private developments. Punitive taxation will worsen oversupply risks in some segments while deterring new builds.

4. Critical Role in Diaspora Remittances and Current Account Stability
Diaspora remittances are a major forex earner (often $4+ billion annually recently) and key supporter of Kenya’s current account deficit. Much of this money flows into real estate as a trusted, tangible asset.

Taxing property income so harshly signals “don’t invest here,” likely reducing inflows. Remittances help cover import gaps and stabilize reserves; disrupting real estate channels undermines this without easy substitutes.

5. Uncompetitive vs. Alternative Markets
Other jurisdictions actively court real estate investment with better incentives, clearer rules, and competitive after-tax yields. Kenya’s combination of moderate gross yields + high gross taxation + illiquidity (real estate is a “stickier” asset than financial markets) makes it far less attractive. Investors have choices—why pick a high-risk, high-tax jurisdiction with ad-hoc policy shifts?

6. Behavioral Impacts: Reduced Investment, Market Distortions, and Capital Flight Risk
Non-residents have lower ties and higher mobility—they can easily redirect capital elsewhere or divest.
Targeting one investor class (diaspora/non-residents) with punitive rules makes their properties uncompetitive on rents. They may raise prices (hurting tenants) or exit, reducing overall supply.
Frequent ad-hoc tax changes on high-ticket, long-horizon assets like property signal high sovereign risk. This chills not just real estate but broader foreign direct investment (FDI). Investors seek predictability; repeated surprises erode confidence.

[CPA Wachira Joseph @WashiraX]

Diaspora landlords are about to be cooked proper.

Under the proposed finance bill 2026,

- Residential and commercial rent earned by landlords living outside Kenya shall be taxed at 30% of gross rent collected every month.

No deduction for:

- Repairs & maintenance
- Insurance
- Agent commissions
- Loan / Mortgage interest
- Or other property expenses

Meaning: 30% Tax is charged before expenses.

Implications:

- Effective tax on actual profit could exceed 50%
- Foreign investors will avoid Kenya
- Rent prices could rise sharply
- Highly leveraged property investors could sink into losses

#financebill2026

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

@MarioNawfal @coldtusker What's the cost per MW? This shouldn't be a long term solution...

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

@kiruti The two largest shareholders prefer dividends. This can only be a pipedream for retail investors

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

@WaruhiuFranklin @DMVahid https://t.co/S55tYDEjKT.

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

@WaruhiuFranklin @DMVahid Tafadhali. I shall leave the following articles for your consideration
https://t.co/kJsPpVSC0w.

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

Ndugu, resorting to ad hominem attacks like “you’re not special” and “I get first-hand info from decision makers” only shows you have no facts beyond “ni mimi nakushow.” The real problem is you’re just dropping clickbait posts with zero basis for your wild conclusions — conclusions that directly contradict a clear, multi-year strategy that SCB has publicly announced and is actually executing. If you cared to read the bank’s official statements and investor updates, you’d see it. I wish the CMA had some say on such charlatans freely speculating and spreading rumours about listed companies. It misleads retail investors and damages market confidence. Save this thread. In 5 years we’ll revisit it and I’ll happily accept your apology. Until then, stick to facts, not vibes.

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

@WaruhiuFranklin @DMVahid X can show us things. You can spew all this talk with not an ounce of information- but dare call folks ignorant? You ought to be ashamed of yourself. Save this post & we shall review it in 5 years and I'll be happy to get your apology then

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

@BoardLotSultan @robert_muriithi https://t.co/cUGI8ppjQw

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

@BoardLotSultan @robert_muriithi Did you also track the expansion into Egypt & Morocco ?

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

What happens if this drags for months on end & the energy shortage becomes a national security issue for Asia-Pacific economies who actually depend on Chinese exports? The blockade only works if Iran folds quickly - at some point other folks will have to put their energy interests first

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

The population growth in Africa is also drastically falling. Only the very poorest of countries with inadequate healthcare sectors are still having large number of kids - and even there you can already see a huge drop from a decade ago. In one generation, I suspect the whole world will be below the replacement rate.

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

@WaruhiuFranklin @DMVahid Stop spreading terrible rumours. They also just expanded into Egypt and Morocco. Read the public statements issued by the bank

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

Mandatory Backdated Compounding Contributions from Day One of SHA: The Foundation for Sustainable Universal Health Coverage

SHA is a universal health scheme that can only succeed if all eligible people contribute consistently. Insurance works because healthy individuals pay in steadily to build the pool for when support is needed.
From the moment the SHA scheme launched, obligations should have been mandatory for all future claimants of working age. Anyone wanting to access benefits must make mandatory backdated contributions from Day One of the scheme. These contributions should compound at the average national debt interest cost to reflect the opportunity cost and financing burden the scheme has carried on their behalf.
Instant or late registration with minimal payment defeats the entire model. It allows people to join only when ill, draining resources funded largely by formal sector deductions. This is not insurance — it is adverse selection that makes the system unsustainable.
The reset date must be Day One of SHA. Access to claims should require full compounded back-payments from launch (or from the date of eligibility/age of majority). Healthy citizens must subsidize the pool in advance, not just when they need care. Without mandatory, compounding contributions from the beginning, universal coverage becomes an unfunded promise that burdens taxpayers and risks collapse.
This is the discipline required for SHA to work as a true universal scheme.

[SANKEI🇰🇪 @SankeiSaitoti]

How is SHA collecting from the informal sector? It should introduce an NHIF-style 60-day waiting period. Instant eligibility drains the pool funded by payslip deductions. Someone can walk into a hospital, register, pay Ksh 7,800, and run up a Ksh 130,000 bill, that’s not sustainable. A waiting period would force advance contributions and improve collections.

Disclaimer: I’m a layman when it comes to insurance.

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

Paying 20+k$ more to bolster corporate profitability is wild. US is practicing socialism of the rich where value is sucked from the middle class upwards. Protectionism won't lead to better jobs, but instead will eventually lead to outdated & overpriced products that can't compete anywhere else. US giving up on global markets will also come with a steep cost of jobs losses + an even wider trade deficits that will lead to a permanent risk premium.

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

@TimAdams76 Spot on.. but even your bold predictions were handsomely beaten. What a race!

[Track & Field Gazette @TrackGazette]

THE FIRST MAN IN HISTORY TO BREAK 2 HOURS IN A MARATHON!!!🤯🤯🤯

Sabastian Sawe 🇰🇪 has just shattered the World Record at the London Marathon, running 1:59:30!!!

He makes history as the first man to officially break 2 hours in the marathon.

Yomif Kejelcha 🇪🇹 in his debut ran 1:59:41 to become 2nd fastest alltime, while Jacob Kiplimo 🇺🇬 finished in 2:00:28.

All under the previous World Record.

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

@25th06Ke @Childish_MD @SafaricomPLC Cards are not cheaper- they charge merchants up to 3%- which eventually increases the prices you pay for your goods

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

@erwothi @MwangoCapital @kmainaeric @StellarSwakei @WillisOwiti @mmnjug @DollyOgutu @nderi_j @katewaithera1 @coldtusker @NSE_PLC Eh..did you mean PAT being higher than PBT?

[DICKSON MAGECHA @Dicksonmagecha]

@edd_njuguna1 @ignyharaz2 Law says 3 seconds... its a global rule that Kenyans don't seem to know it exists. That's why folks with 20 years driving experience in kenya can take more than 5 tests to pass a simple driving test out here