Differentiators Data

Polling, research and political Insights. Home of The Almanac. For subscription inquiries: [email protected].

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

Full newsletter linked here: https://t.co/IotK35bfjD

Check out https://t.co/uKmGrvTDTp for all #ncpol subscriber content.

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

If #NCPOL follows #VAPOL - Who’s at risk in '26?

Today's @differentdata newsletter looks at @ncgop #ncga seats the @NCDemParty could flip in '26 in a blue wave election similar to VA '25.

We see 4 danger zone seats, 1 at risk and 3 seats to watch.

Newsletter link in next post.

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

This week's edition of our newsletter details PAC contributions in 2024 and the first half of 2025, and maps Roy Cooper's first statewide election:
https://t.co/swLtukZt6Z

Sign up for the newsletter or inquire about subscriptions at https://t.co/uKmGrvTDTp #ncpol

[Jim Blaine @JimBlaine]

Got asked by @TimBoyumTV to come talk #ncsen @ChairmanWhatley and @RoyCooperNC on his podcast. Like any good journalist he snuck in some questions about my old boss @SenatorBerger and new #unc football coach @Belichick_B
#NCpol
https://t.co/DkbXiPYV7B

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

We ran the 5,700 contested votes in the #ncpol Supreme Court race through our proprietary voter model to see who would win if courts ruled they were invalid. The answer may surprise you …

https://t.co/8Htk8hnjbt

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

3/3 several people have requested the full crosstabs to the #ncpol survey. You can find them here: https://t.co/OzXyVHGepG

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

1/ In these hyperpartisan times few policy issues enjoy broad political support.

An @AFPNC commissioned poll of regulatory reform issues found two proposals, The Reins Act and requiring agency rules to be re-reviewed every decade, with 75% voter support from each #ncpol party.

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

2/ This memo outlines the major findings.

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

#NCPOL #NC13 New link for this memo: https://t.co/6JcaquOa1y

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

Over the weekend, we surveyed the #NCPOL #NC13 GOP Primary runoff. The major takeaways:

1. Only 51% of likely voters know Kelly Daughtry suspended her campaign.

2. Brad Knott has a commanding 57% lead and 84% know he's Trump endorsed.

Full memo:
https://t.co/zEdEuUOoJz

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

Over the weekend, we surveyed the #NCPOL #NC13 GOP Primary runoff. The major takeaways:

1. Only 51% of likely voters know Kelly Daughtry suspended her campaign.

2. Brad Knott has a commanding 57% lead and 84% know he's Trump endorsed.

Full memo:
https://t.co/zEdEuUOoJz

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

"Democrats were undoubtedly expecting a bad outcome... But the release today of proposed map CBP-5, even by NC’s brass knuckled redistricting standards, is a particularly savage assault on Democratic electoral prospects for the remainder of this decade." #ncga #ncpol

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

New for subscribers: Data sets, analysis and ratings for both NC Congressional district plans filed today in #ncga #ncpol
https://t.co/VPdIknbjGc

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

A couple of snapshots:

"This map creates 10 likely Republican seats, three likely Democratic seats and one competitive seat that might very slightly favor the Democrats in 2024 but is in an area of the state that is shifting quickly toward the GOP." #ncpol #ncga

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

And finally, we tested a potential #vagov #vapol primary between Lt. Gov Sears and AG Jason Miyares. Voters view both favorably, but Sears leads by a wide margin. Read more on the survey, including toplines and tabs, here: https://t.co/eFxOHUFqhf

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

We ventured north into the commonwealth and conducted a statewide survey of likely GOP primary voters on the presidential race (n=500. MoE: +/- 4.5%. Mode: 1/3 live cell, 1/3 live landline, 1/3 text-to-web) A 🧵 on what we found #vapol #vagov:

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

Importantly, DeSantis support grows with every demographic in a head-to-head race with Trump. Trump has a firm base of support but is unlikely to grow his vote share as the field narrows. DeSantis, on the other hand, stands to benefit greatly as the field shrinks #vapol #vagov

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

For full survey results, including image ratings of other notable #ncpol Republicans, you can find the toplines and crosstabs here: https://t.co/K64Vpa78gT

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

NEW POLL🧵: We're excited to officially launch our polling services today and introduce the new Director of Differentiators Data, Amanda Finelli. Amanda has extensive policy and political experience, and holds a Ph.D. focused in political philosophy. #ncpol

[Differentiators Data @DifferentData]

Just for the fun of it, we tested a hypothetical matchup for Attorney General: Forsyth County DA Jim O'Neill, who sought the AG's office in 2020 and 2016, trailed Congressman Dan Bishop 20%-13%. #ncpol