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Saylor faces a three-body problem imo - he can't indefinitely support all of equity, BTC and the preferred/debt stack. The only real "fix" was a multi-year cash buffer but he seems incapable of sitting on that.
My guess is he protects BTC the most - for philosophical reasons and also its the most connected to the other two - but that takes a lot of capital from equity and/or pref if he can raise it.
At his size financial engineering miracles can happen...but its a material overhang for forseeable future.
Like a lot of operators with his character type, eventually they fly too close to the sun - but it's the same trait that got them that high in the first place.
Good, toughtful piece but think it's missing two things that push fair DeFi rates lower imo:
- Open global access of DeFi creates structurally captured demand. A LOT of stablecoins sit in non-KYC wallets that can't or won't onboard to TradFi yield - DeFi is their only option. That's largely price-insensitive supply compressing rates. IMO a bigger negative bar than any of the positive ones on Tom's chart
- DeFi has empirically been safer than centralised crypto credit in the same ecosystem (Genesis, Celsius, BlockFi). Instant liquidity, constantly verifiable collateral and non-negotiable, open-source liquidations have real value, proven "in production" across multiple cycles. Another negative bar against TradFi yields.
At 12%+ DeFi demand would be off the charts imo - my gut says 7-8% is fair "clearing price".
One question: isn't PD x LGD double-counting the oracle/gov/composability lines? Those are the loss events.
When DACM launched our venture fund in mid-2018 it was near the bottom of the bear and a first-time crypto VC was a hard sell. So we built an evergreen structure -taking investors in over time as our track record spoke for itself.
We closed to new LPs in mid-2021 to cap the size, but the evergreen structure means we always have dry powder for the right opportunities.
We're still deploying - focused on early-stage, crypto-native projects. We particularly like to invest in what we use: onchain trading, lending, stablecoins, DEXes etc
We're still very much open for business!
Apart from the growth and all of the points below...the other strength, from a pure portfolio perspective, is $SHFL is starting to trade like a casino stock does on the stock market - i.e. its one of the only "defensive" tokens that exists providing somewhat uncorrelated performance (privacy coins starting to behave a little like this too but thats another topic). This is unfortunately very rare in crypto.
Not sure whether this is 1) market being sensible as SHFL and similar projects are "defensive" and, like casino stocks, it makes sense to trades like this 2) fact it is not on any centralised exchanges so escapes the headline-algos...probably a bit of both.
Seeing a lot of takes on Iran...so here’s mine
Saying the US doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz assumes ignorance of two things. First, oil is priced in a global market so clearly disruption in the ME transmits everywhere. Second, it’s the flow of barrels through that Strait and the pricing of those barrels in USD that is a key pillar of the petrodollar system.
US control of global shipping routes, its ability to provide protection in a modern warfare environment and its status as a stable partner have all moved lower through this conflict imo - mostly just because long-held perceptions have been tested (ie the asymmetry of drone swarms vs. missile defences in attacks on critical infrastructure).
Trying to cut through all the fog and noise its hard to see how the above doesn’t weigh on marginal demand for USD and treasuries over time.
Ultimately bullish alternative stores of value...but probably not world stability.
Some years back I thought protocols like $MKR could evolve into a new type of low-friction “warehouse facility” for tradfi.
The key constraints were: stablecoin scale, credible RWA tokenisation systemns/pipelines and likely compliance roadblocks in tradfi.
Think all of these have advanced materially.
From our discussions/pipeline, corporates and VCs are actively exploring and some already building defi markets as the yield layers on cash floats or end markets for asset leverage.
$MORPHO and probably $AAVE seem well placed but these addressable markets are vast.
Its very early/uncertain but even marginal market share capture from traditional funding channels would drive a step-function growth in defi tvl.
I compared them all 2 years ago: Delta Neutrals as of 2023:
@FasanaraDigital had the best stats and tail risk
@DigiAssetFund had an almost identical performance but got unlucky with something around FTX. If you removed that event they had almost identical performance and tail exposure.
@Re7Capital was also extremely good as of 2023.
Side note:
@LanternVentures Pharos Fund had the best tail risk hedge of them all. It's a delta neutral with a small yolo side-pocket that lets them do directional special situations.
Three things in crypto generate $10bn+ cashflow:
- Binance;
- Tether; and
- Derivatives basis.
Only one was available to capture - was great to talk to @gdog97_ and here him explain how $ENA does it
👇
1 min short:
https://t.co/YA1NF94vsB
DACM is excited to back @ostium in their Series A. The global CFD market is huge - over $10T a month - yet still runs on outdated, opaque infrastructure that too often trades against its users.
We invested because Ostium is rebuilding this stack from the ground up - delivering a fairer, more transparent, and better trading experience. Ostium's oracle-driven, RFQ-based perps pull pricing and liquidity directly from the underlying markets, avoiding the fragmented on-chain exchange layer and enabling the tightest execution at size, anywhere onchain.
We have huge confidence in @kaledora and the team. Excited to watch them continue to scale Ostium into the category leader.
Dapps are 60%+ of crypto’s revenue yet only 7% of its market value. This is the same ratio as when dapps earned nothing.
Majority of sector revenue, all the growth...repricing feels inevitable.
Always great to talk to Raoul - this is one of the hardest crypto markets to get your head around but tried to cover a lot of it here.
Also talk through the protocol->app rerating opportunity which we think is the most compelling thematic in crypto on a 3+ year view.
CIG’s 4Q25 Digital Asset Fund Outlook Magazine is officially live!
This quarter, leading fund managers and allocators provided long-form views on the industry's most pressing buyside topics.
Access the full report here: https://t.co/xpHVfcLsWe
SOL Strategies filed to raise $1bn yesterday - so another potential $1bn treasury vehicle buyer of $SOL. If both this raise and the DFDV raise I mentioned below complete, thats $2bn of aggregate SOL buying. To help put in perspective how material this could be, it's the equivalent of Saylor buying $46bn of BTC...
https://t.co/Hl0OnohM37
Wow - $GRASS has effectively confirmed it’s selling data, at scale, to major LLM players citing “mid 8-figure revenue.”
Based on it's latest daily scrape volume (entirely demand-driven) and pricing - assuming 90% cheaper than the lowest-cost residential proxies at scale - we estimate “mid 8 figures” likely means $50m+ in revenue.
h/t to @Delphi_Digital with a quality alpha drop to members here
Great to sit down with @RaoulGMI again at such an interesting time in crypto.
We spoke a lot about DACM's focus on the (undervalued) crypto app layer and a whole bunch of other stuff including the acceleration (and inevitability) of the crypto/ai overlap, the effectiveness of depin to build physical networks at incredible speeds and some new trends we are seeing in the VC fund raising market.
Enjoy!