Jay

Digital Asset Research and Investing. Technical AND Fundamental Analysis. Degen. Crypto Kinfolk Moderator.
MBA. Daily Market Updates. Not Financial Advice.

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

Are we going to see this play out? Or, are things different this time?

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

July 16, 2026 🌎🌞
Good Morning Everyone!

SPY Premarket is sitting above yesterday’s high, currently. It looks like we will see a slight gap up at the open. Yesterday’s surprise PPI data was a shock to many analysts, showing the cost of production is not growing as fast as anticipated.

It looks like we will also invalidate the local downtrend as we make higher high on the daily time frame. DXY has also confirmed a break down from the uptrend it has been following since early May. It looks as if liquidity may be flowing back toward assets and away from money markets.
We’ll see if there is any sustained volume behind this move, or if it was just a single day of upward pressure followed by a continuation to the downside…
Today there is a bunch of stuff on the economic calendar, but none of it should have any drastic effect on economic or market conditions. We have Business Inventory data from May (lagging), Pending Home Sales and Retail Sales data for June, as well as the Home Builder Confidence Index and the Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey for July. There is a ton of data to sift through, but none of it holds and real control over market conditions. There is one outlier, the Philly Survey came in way above forecasts and expectations, so there is a good sense of optimism in the manufacturing sector.

BTC has fallen back below the 50ma this morning, after barely holding above it yesterday. We are currently pushing down on the local POC, so hopefully we can hold here and not break down further; we are also flirting with a bearish cross on the RSI. The conflicts in the middle east are ramping back up, oil prices are back on the rise, and subsequently risk assets take the first hit as liquidity is pulled from one sector and transferred to another in the name of market stability. President Trump is once again hinting at a deal with Iran following another massive bombing campaign last night. It sure would be nice if we could get this “war” wrapped up in a timely manner.

I hope everyone has a wonderful Thursday!

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

July 15, 2026 🌎🌞
Good Morning Everyone!

SPY Premarket is sitting above yesterday’s close, currently. We ended the day green, but we wicked in both directions and closed with a bit of a spinning top (indecision). Inflation came in better than anticipated, but we didn’t see any spike in trading activity, and volume remained relatively low.
We still need to break upward to create a higher high to invalidate the bearish possibilities. The holding pattern continues until we get another macro event catalyst, or until the next IPO comes along. Hopefully PPI comes in better than anticipated.

Today in economic news we have the Producers Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI data. Analysts were expecting things to remain flat MoM, but for the YoY numbers there was still an expectation that PPI was going show a noticeable uptick. However the NY Manufacturing Index is was also expected to show a decent increase, meaning confidence is starting to come back amongst those in the manufacturing sector. However, analysts were fairly high with their estimates, as things have come in lower than anticipated across the board. While sentiment still shows that things are expensive in the world, the data shows that prices are starting to stabilize across longer periods of time. This is a favorable outcome.

BTC has reclaimed $64k, and even poked above $65k yesterday and this morning. We are also back above the 50ma (barely), which is a good indication we are headed for a retest of the current POC. We are starting to see more days of inflows than outflows for ETFs and Treasury Funds. We are still deep in fear territory, but we are slowly and steadily moving back toward positive sentiment. Don’t miss these opportunities to buy while others are crying!

I hope everyone has a wonderful HUMP DAY!

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

July 14, 2026 🌎🌞
Good Morning Everyone!

SPY Premarket is sitting right around yesterday’s close, currently. We gapped down at the open yesterday, and subsequently ended the day red. There is a chance we are just confirming new local support around $748-$749, but there is also a possibility that this is the third lower-high we’ve created over the past few weeks, meaning sellers have taken over. We need to hold above the 10 day moving average for that possibility to not become reality; we tapped it yesterday, so we’ll see how things play out today before we can make a confident determination. There is quite a bit of speculation that we are building a strong downtrend that will eventually fall off a cliff when the bottom drops out on the AI hype. Personally, I don’t see a bubble, so to speak. The difference we have today vs the dotcom bubble, or the housing bubble, is the companies are not being built on hopes and dreams. The dotcom era was a bunch of home pages tied to a dot com, but the websites never actually did anything. There was no product or service bringing in revenue. Today’s AI companies have created billions of dollars worth of value, AND they are bringing in billions in revenue every month. The lack of compute and power generation is where we will hit the real bottlenecks, but I think we are a ways off from hitting those walls. We need to get some of these new data centers (actually) built first, to see if that will come to fruition. The real problem is all the empty office buildings and factories sitting on the balance sheet of Regional banks. There’s a reason banks are trying so hard to quash stable coins; deposit flight is their biggest fear!

In economic news it is Inflation Day (CPI)! Along with the Consumer Price Index, we will see the Core inflation data and the NFIB Business Optimism Index for June. We also have FED Chairman Warsh testifying before Congress, and several of the board members holding speaking engagements today, as well. Analysts have been forecasting a drop across the board for June CPI. They were expecting to inflation hold steady MoM, and see a slight decline YoY. What we actually saw was even better than anticipated. Premarket trading immediately started pushing upward on the better-than-expected inflation numbers! The Business Optimism index came in well above expectations, which is also welcomed news. When business owners start to feel more optimistic, that usually bodes well for overall economic activity. We’ll see what PPI looks like tomorrow!

BTC has fallen back below $63k, and has found local support around $62k, once again. We are still in a holding pattern right below the 50ma, and we continue to see volume diminish on the higher time frames, even though we saw a slight uptick in selling pressure yesterday. We did cross back up on the RSI signal even thought we are still seeing net ETF outflows. Today’s inflation data should help boost sentiment toward risk assets, and there is some slight inkling that the Clarity Act is still being strongly worked on behind closed doors. Crossing our fingers for more positive catalysts in the near future.

I hope everyone has a wonderful Tuesday!

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

@PeterSchiff I think we all know your stance on BTC at this point. Why do I see you making new posts, daily, about why BTC is so bad? If it's bad and not worth anyone's time, why do you constantly rail against it?

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

July 13, 2026 🌞🌎
Good Morning Everyone!

SPY Premarket is sitting below Friday’s close, currently. We had a green day Friday, after wicking down early in the session. We recovered the downward movement fairly quickly, and we closed above the local downtrend. However, we did not make a higher high; unless we can push up to $657, there is still a good chance that this is just a test to confirm local resistance. Volume is still diminishing on the daily, and the monthly time frame still shows us in overbought territory; there’s still plenty of room to grow on the daily and weekly. Renewed tensions in the middle east have driven oil prices up a few percentage points since Friday’s close, but nothing too shocking, and I am fairly certain most analysts expected to see this happen. Markets are getting used to the drastic changes in global sentiment, and they are not reacting as drastically as we have seen in the past few years. I think most people have accepted the fact that data and information just moves faster these days, and there’s not always a need react immediately or forcefully.

There’s not really anything of major importance on the economic calendar today. We will see the new Monthly budget numbers from the US Government, which is expected to see a decline of about $132 billion. Any time we can curtail the amount of money our government is able to spend, I consider that a win. We also have FED board members Waller and Bowman speaking today. Kind of an uneventful day, which is just fine with me!

BTC has once again rejected from the $64k range, which also coincides with a rejection from the 50ma. We are currently sitting below $63k, and actively pushing downward. However, most of the heatmaps show there is a lot more liquidity piled above the currently price, rather than below. There is strong expectation that we will see another big leg downward before we hit true capitulation. This makes me wonder if we will see a short squeeze rather than a sharp drop down to the next major support level? We shall see… The BTC/ETH pair is about to cross up on the RSI signal, and MSTR is hinting at buying more BTC after selling more MSTR shares and bolstering their cash holdings. The only thing that might make things even more uncertain, would be a renewed push for the Clarity Act. However, I doubt we will see any further movement on that until (either) the midterms are over, or the voter ID bill gets voted on first. This could turn out to be an interesting week, though…

I hope everyone has a wonderful Monday!

Let’s crush this week!

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

@DonaldTrumpNat So, black Monday? 😟

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

Not your keys, not your crypto.
Another one bites the dust.
No promise of any customer payouts.
Get your assets off exchanges, folks...

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

@unusual_whales Wtf...

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

Personally, no. I think they will spread out all the major IPOs that are coming up to keep the market from. Falling. We also haven't reached the revised 2026 targets for the S&P. And, if we are in a bubble like analysts are saying, we would probably see a blowoff top before the crash.

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

July 9, 2026 🌎🌞
Good Morning Everyone!

SPY Premarket is sitting above yesterday’s high, currently. We closed green yesterday, after gapping down at the open; we didn’t quite close the gap, but we will likely see it filled the rest of the way at the open today. We are going to open at a fairly critical level, around $746-$748; the direction we head from there will tell us if it will act as support or resistance. Volume has remained consistent in recent weeks, even though we have seen some fairly strong swings. With tensions ramping back up in the middle east, we will likely seem the price of oil head back toward $100 a barrel, and we will most likely see liquidity flowing toward dollars instead of assets, but we shall see how things play out the rest of this week. President Trump states he doesn’t believe that things will ramp back up, but he said that as the we were actively bombing sites in Iran.

Today in economic news we have Existing Home Sales data for June, as well as speaking engagements scheduled for the NY and Dallas FED presidents. Existing homes sales are expected to come in right at forecasted levels, which will be a slight increase over the previous period. Next Week we will see CPI and PPI data, which will tell us which direction inflation is trending; probably up if I had to guess, but we shall see!

BTC seems to have found local support around $62k, and has seem volume continue to diminish (both) on the shorter and longer time frames. We continue to see ETFS selling outpace buying, and it still seems unlikely we will get the Clarity Act Passed before the end of Summer. Once election season starts, it will get put on the back burner until next year. We are in a bit of a holding pattern as we await the next catalyst to show us which direction the market will head from here; continue downward, or the start of a new bull market? Only time will tell…

I hope everyone has a wonderful Thursday!

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

@coinbureau @Justin_Bons warned us they would do this. Didn't think they would start talking about it so soon, though...

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

July 8, 2026 🌎🌞
Good Morning Everyone!

SPY Premarket is sitting below yesterday’s low, currently. We had a red day yesterday as we seem to have rejected from the upper trend line, making the second lower high since we peaked on June 2nd. We are firmly in a downward trend now, the only question is how long will we correct before breaking out? We have seen an increase in volatility in recent weeks, as the price swings have gotten a bit more drastic although it hasn’t really been reflected in the VIX. We continue to see an increasing number of analysts warn that we are close to the ai bubble popping, and that we should all be taking profits and preparing for the inevitable crash. The Buffet Indicator shows our National Debt is now over 220% of our GDP; the highest it has been since we started tracking this data. However, there are a lot of people far less worried, who believe that we are on the precipice of a golden age for growth. We need to get the conflict in the middle east resolved before i can be sold on that dream, though. The cost of energy is really holding back economic growth, if we are being honest with ourselves. There just isn’t enough disposable income in the economy as a whole.

Today in economic news we have Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit levels for May, as well as the minutes from the June FOMC meeting will be published this afternoon. Both Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit are expected to see a decline in growth. While these are good things in the long run, I doubt it will have any effect on market activities. The FOMC minutes will give us a better idea of where the other FED governors stand on the transition from Powell to Warsh, and what the consensus was toward changes in policy position. Personally, I think Powell needs to step down. It is fairly uncommon for a former chair to stick around and finish out his term as governor once he leaves the chair position. We have far too many people that have been in government well in to old age; they need to let go of the power and transition to the next generation of leadership…Mitch McConnell is another great example of this…

BTC tried to reclaim the current POC yesterday, but the renewed tensions in Iran changed that relatively quickly. We are not back below $62k, and pushing downward. We have printed some strong bearish divergence on the daily, and volume continues to diminish. Miners have been selling more BTC than they produced for the first half of 2026. Hopefully that trend does not continue the second half of the year. Historically, the BTC cycle should bottom some time in the next few months, right before we head in the Q4, if I am not mistaken. It will be interesting to see if we do actually get another leg down, or if accumulation and consolidation will continue in a more volatile manner than we have seen in past cycles. Only time will tell.

I hope you all have a wonderful HUMP DAY!

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

July 7, 2026 🌎🌞
Good Morning Everyone!

SPY Premarket is sitting below yesterday’s close, currently. We had a green day yesterday after gapping up at the open. We did not close the gap, but we did see some selling pressure toward the end of yesterday’s session. We wicked above the upper trend that we’ve been flirting with the last few weeks, but we fell back below before the close. We also saw a bullish cross on the macd indicator, and volume has been rising the last 3 days, so we may actually be gearing up for another leg up, putting us back in price discovery territory. However, we are starting to see several warning signs that we are nearing a large market correction. The leaked internal treasury memo regarding the systemic risk of the current AI bubble, as well several well-known market analysts stating they are also seeing the signs of a serious problem in the private credit sector, are just a few of the recent indications that we are going to experience some strong economic head-winds in the near future. How long can they keep the bubble inflated, is the real question. If we can coordinate the launch of IPOs by spreading them out enough so that liquidity doesn’t become an issue, we might be able to keep things afloat long enough that real economic growth through new manufacturing and construction projects start to take root; we could be experiencing the early stages of an economic revival. Only time will tell…

Today’s in economic news we have the US Trade Balance numbers for May. Analysts are expecting to see a large increase in our trade deficit, as exports are forecasted to see a decline in growth, while imports should see a decent increase. We are, once again, trending the wrong direction if our goal is to be more self sufficient. There is a slight silver lining in today’s economic data, though… We are seeing an expansion in logistics capabilities, which is the first stage of a growing manufacturing sector; we have to be able to move the goods if we are going to produce them.

BTC is currently sitting right around a major POC after wicking to the downside yesterday, and again this morning; it appears we may be flipping resistance back to support around $63k-$64k. We have seen net inflows for BTC ETFs the last couple of trading sessions, even though Strategy has recently filed to sell up to $1.25billion worth of BTC to cover dividends and redemptions. The former CIO of Tether is looking for someone to buy him out of his share of the company, and Bitmine continues to acquire Ethereum. If we don’t get some traction on the Clarity Act in the next month, or so, it is unlikely we will see it pass this year since we will enter election season once summer ends. Either way, we will keep our head down and continue stacking chips.

I hope everyone has a wonderful Tuesday!

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

July 6, 2026 🌎🌞
Good Morning Everyone!

SPY Premarket is sitting above Thursday’s close, currently. Markets were closed Friday in honor of Independence Day. Thursday we closed red with a bit of a high wave candle, after wicking in both directions to test the local support and resistance areas. We also closed red for the month of June. There is a fair value gap between Thursday’s low and the 50ma, so there is a chance we will see a bit more down side so we can get that gap filled. Hopefully this was just a short consolidation period, and we can hold above the 50ma. We are starting to see more analysts calling the top and warning about the AI bubble popping sooner than later. Personally, I am in a bit of disagreement with that assessment. This “bubble” actually has products with use cases, where as the dot com and housing bubble was due to value being created out of thin air. While some of the AI companies may be overvalued compared to their current revenues, but they are (in fact) bringing in large revenues. Not to mention there are still several companies expressing interest in going public in the near future. There seems to be a concerted effort to spread these IPO’s out, so there is a long, sustained wave of new money entering the market, rather than all at once; this is a good thing in my opinion.

Today in economic news we have both the S&P Global, S&P Composite, and ISM Services PMI’s for June. The S&P Global Services and Composite Services PMI’s are both expected to see an increase over the previous period. Consensus is even showing the that we might see an uptick from the forecasted level. ISM Services is forecasted to come in slightly below the previous period, MoM; consensus is right in line with forecasts, though. Even if we get some surprises in the PMI’s, there shouldn’t be any drastic deviations.
We also have FED Governor Waller speaking today at the ECB Conference on the difficulties of Monetary Policy in a changing world, which wraps up tomorrow.

BTC has finally found resistance after seeing 5 consecutive green days. We are not overheated on any of the time frames, so there is a good likelihood that this is just a retest to flip resistance to support. As we headed in to the holiday we did see net inflows for BTC ETFs on July 2nd, braking the streak of outflows we saw over several weeks. Is this going to be a short lived reprieve before the selloff continues? We saw Strategy record the sale of a little more than $200million in BTC (~3588 BTC) to cover dividend payments, and pad their stockpile of cash. They still plan to sell another $800 million worth according to their public filings. It certainly would be nice to get some positive movement on the clarity act to perhaps inspire new institutional buying, in order to soften the blow of another $800million worth of BTC being sold. The next couple months should give us a good indication if we have found the bottom for this cycle, or if we have another leg down before we see capitulation.
I hope everyone has a wonderful Monday.

Let’s crush this week!

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

@saylor @Strategy You should add "sell" bubbles to this chart for transparency purposes.

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

June 30, 2026 🌎🌞
Good Morning Everyone!

SPY Premarket is sitting around yesterday’s close, currently. We had another green day yesterday, after a slightly volatile opening; we saw strong wicks in both directions within the first hour of trading, but then things calmed down and we saw a steady climb the rest of the day. We reclaimed the 50ma, and we will likely see the gap filled that was created when we gapped down at Tuesday’s open last week. Once the gap fills we are likely to see another test of the 50ma to see if we the rally will continue, or if we are confirming $745 as the new resistance zone before heading lower. We did cross back up on the RSI signal yesterday, but we haven’t seen any meaningful boost in volume that would indicate . We continue crossing our fingers for a nice independence day boost in both in both the markets and in consumer sentiment.

Today in economic news we have the S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index from April, The May Job Opening Figures, as well as The Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) and Consumer Confidence ratings for June. The Home Price Index is based on 20 of the largest city so we all need to take that data with a grain of salt, forecasts show a decline in the growth of home prices, but they are still forecasting an increase. It won’t be too much longer until the average person has absolutely no way to purchase a home, unless we do something more drastic about large funds paying over asking for every available home and property. May Job Openings are expected to come in slightly lower than the previous period, and consensus also has the numbers coming in below initial forecasts. Are we losing jobs openings due to people being hired, or due to positions being eliminated? Anyone have thoughts to share on this? The Chicago PMI is expected to come in below forecast; It would be nice to see a surprise to the upside. Consumer Confidence is (actually) expected to come in above the previous period this morning, and also above initial forecasts. If this holds true, that will be very welcomed news. We shall see…!

BTC has fallen back below local support, and is currently pushing downward toward $58k. We are very close to breaking back below the oversold threshold as Strategy has authorized the sale of more BTC to raise funds. This appears to be the point where they can no longer sustain the pyramid without selling the underlying assets. The problem they have is their obligations heavily outweigh the current value of their BTC holdings. They may not get a margin call in the true sense of the phrase, but they may be forced to sell a lot more BTC at a loss than they want. The Clarity Act seems to have lost all of its legs, and is now firmly sitting on the back burner. Again, we cross our fingers for a bullish catalyst to break this long streak we’ve spent deep in fear territory on the sentiment meter.

I hope everyone has a wonderful Tuesday!

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

June 29, 2026 🌎🌞
Good Morning Everyone!

I was traveling last week, but we are back to the normal schedule!

SPY Premarket is sitting above Friday’s high, currently. We gapped down slightly at Friday’s open, and we did see some additional wicks to the downside throughout the day, but we ended up pumping to close green after falling below $720 briefly. Today should open right around the major POC, which will give us a good indication of what direction we are going to head today and into next week. If we reject from the $730’s we could be in for a prolonged sell off, but we are crossing our fingers that is not the case. We have been consolidating in the mid $700’s since early May, so a renewed rally would be the ideal situation. We are no longer overbought on the higher time frames, and all of the major banks and funds have now revised their S&P Targets upward (between $7800 and $8500), we just need some of the macro economic situations to get solved and we could actually be in a position to rally the second half of 2026. We shall see how things look as we head in to the 4th of July weekend!

Nothing on the economic calendar today. However, we may have some movement on the Iran front as US and Iranian officials have once again agreed to halt hostilities and restart negotiations this week. We continue to see Peter Schiff pushing the “Sell America Trade”, which shows you what a giant pile of crap he really is. Not only is he consistently wrong about macro economics, his personal bias continues to cloud his reading the overall state of the global economy.

BTC is currently pushing up on $60k, but there is not a lot of momentum behind it, unfortunately. Volume has been very weak the last few days, and we are seeing more rumors floating around that Strategy has initiate plans to sell more BTC to bolster cash reserves and fund a share buyback program. However, we also saw rumors over the weekend that Saylor plans to make another BTC buy in the near future. We are still seeing most major banks crusade against the Clarity Act, and crypto adoption in general if we are being honest. They are far too worried about losing deposits, rather than figuring out how they can transition their business to meet the new consumer demand for digital services. Hopefully we can get some surprise good news this week as we head in to Independence Day.

I hope everyone has a wonderful Monday!

Let’s crush this week!

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

@unusual_whales Saw $3.05 on my way to work this morning. I work in northern Indiana.

[Jay @DigitalOnly_Jay]

June 19, 2026 🌎🌞
Good Morning Everyone!

Markets are closed today for Juneteenth.
No economic data will publish today.
Crossing our fingers that BTC has a nice green weekend following the end of hostilities in the middle east (hopefully)... We are still seeing massive fear as major consensus asserts that we have not even come close to the true bottom for BTC. We shall see...

I hope everyone has a wonderful Friday and weekend!!!

We are traveling again next week.
Daily updates will be spotty.