$RDDT
Major selling volume despite a decent earnings report, which isnāt uncommon to see in these types of market conditions.
As long as $120 holds, I donāt think this is a bad place to start scaling into a LT position.
If $120 fails over the next few weeks, Iād look for a short opportunity into that psychological $100 area.
šØ Think about this for a secondā¦
Citadel already owns:
⢠12.0M $IREN shares (~$460M)
Leopoldās Situational Awareness owned:
⢠11.7M $IREN shares (~$444M)
If Citadelās acquisition included the full IREN positionā¦
Thatās 23.7M shares.
~$900M invested in $IREN.
Let that sink in. š
@aleabitoreddit That brings GLW (Corning) in the same play: it supplies the fiber that carries the light once the lasers (from Lumentum, Coherent, Sivers, etc.) generate it. šš
$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs:
Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory.
And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand.
This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already expanding to CW, especially as CPO ramps.
I've always been a fan of the laser chokepoint + bottleneck from $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, and $COHR. And glad this thesis is starting to see validation.
Something I was reading about clean energy.
General Fusion just went public on Nasdaq under GFUZ via a SPAC merger. TAE Technologies is merging with Trump Media, ticker DJT, expected to close in Q4 twenty twenty-six. $GFUZ
feels like we are either going to see a march 30th V shape or we are seeing a 2022 gradual decline
most peak to trough declines are either in line with what we saw in march (40-50%) or significantly worse
which would create the condition for a very sharp bounce (even if not back to ATHs) based on some fundamental catalyst like the war once again stopping
or, we are going to see a 2022 midterm year decline where we have a flush out (july) then have a small bounce but continue to decline as that bounce gets rejected because something structural (funds blowing up, leverage, AI trade deeply being questioned, rate hikes) continues to hurt sentiment
in 2022, it was declining earnings growth and rate hikes. in 2026, it seems to be the potential of rate hikes and the perception that earnings growth could top out due to capex being unsustainable or if capex increases then FCF goes negative and the market punished everyone for it
maybe itās none of those scenarios and we are just seeing a market adjust to the reality of so much spend, so much hyperscaler debt, so much potential of technological advancement (as seen in earnings) but so little explanation of how that potential will materialize meaningfully and as a result, we all have to live through these digestion periods
time will tellā¦what do people think?
where do we go from here?
Okay kiddo, gather āround the juice boxā¦
Imagine Meta is a giant lemonade stand run by a guy named Zuck.
Today the lemonade stand sold way more lemonade than anyone expected. People were lined up around the block buying cup after cup. The cash register was going cha-ching cha-ching like crazy.
But then Zuck looked at the money and said:
āCool⦠now Iām gonna take almost ALL of it⦠and also borrow a little more⦠and build the biggest, fanciest, most expensive lemonade robot factory the world has ever seen. Itās gonna make lemonade so smart it can talk to you and maybe even do your homework.ā
The grown-ups who own little pieces of the lemonade stand (thatās the stock people) started screaming:
āYOU SPENT ALL THE LEMONADE MONEY ON ROBOTS AGAIN?!
We wanted our share of the lemonade money RIGHT NOW!!
Not in five years when the robots maybe, possibly, hopefully work!!ā
And thatās why the stock went kaboom after they told everyone how much lemonade they sold.
They made more lemonadeā¦
but they also spent like a kid who just discovered Amazon with Momās credit card.
Just like that š¤·š»āāļø