@DeepDivePod@AndyMSFW@whale_capper I have used the schedule data you've created and look ahead lines to try and reverse engineer the market rating of each team to then compare to your ratings. Completely unsure if it is close to right- seems to have LAC too high
@SamMonsonNFL On @BenStandig latest podcast he had @SharpFootball on about rest. I think also looking at it from a betting standpoint week-to-week is valuable, and think @whale_capper has spoken about that on his podcast with season previews and weekly stuff with @AndyMSFW
I think it will be the opposite for 2 big reasons
1. Drives per game is trending sharply downwards
- defensive schematic shifts are forcing offenses to put together longer drives
- the NFL averaged fewer drives per game in 2025 than any other this century. Over a full drive per game less this year than 2 years ago
2. Kickoff and K-Ball rule changes bringing teams closer to scoring position
- a solid kick return puts teams a first down away from scoring after a made FG
Combine those 2 and you risk being on the wrong side of variance with a conservative approach - especially the closer you get to the goal line
There’s only one thing I’m jealous of.
Yesterday, I picked up a friend at his house. It was chaos — toys scattered everywhere, two toddlers running wild, remodeling in progress.
I told my friend’s wife:
“I know life feels hard right now, but you’ll look back on today as the best of times.”
If you have kids at home, you’re living the golden years right now. Savor every moment.
The 2 pt conversation is this
Philly trailed by 15
That’s a 2 score game slightly less than 50% of time (2pt success rate)
It’s a 3 score game the remaining %
You want to know as early as possible how many possessions you need.
That’s why you go for 2 down 9
It’s not debatable at all
If you gave me one guess, for a million dollars, which NFL receiver committed the exact same unsportsmanlike penalty as Jameson Williams did in a nationally televised game not 24 hours ago...I would win a million dollars.
@Nate_Tice@FourVerts listening at 2x speed it sounds like you guys are saying coffin baby lol had to slow it down to realize you guys are saying coughing baby...