Dis Analyst

Personal account. Not financial advice.

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

@EconstratPB boss

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

If you are not calling bottom you aren’t looking at things fundamentally.

[Brent aka Blacklion @BlacklionCTA]

I am NOT calling a bottom, but when you are in the middle of a levered mania, shorting the flagship index down 250bps may not be the best strategy.

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

@stevehou Lmao it was because you said “good idea” to David’s advice to lift weights. So I assume you don't already.

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

The asia market is completely destroyed 🤮

Why? because no bid on 20s yesterday?

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

C+

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

Bottom ✔️
chop ✔️
Now we wait till end of week to see if we go higher

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

Bottom ✔️
chop ✔️
Now we wait till end of week to see if we go higher

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

My call is chop until Thurs or Fri then we go higher again but most ai names have bottomed

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

@bubbleboienjoyr If you want to short bond, just short something else that's 80% correlated. So that if you make a dollar, you make $0.8 instead

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

lol wtf

[R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts]

🚨#BREAKING: Unconfirmed reports claim Kim Jong Un may have "secretly died" in China.

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

lol...

[Lihong @Lihong062]

>friend works on FX vol desk

>desk head is a boomer

>discovers Astra

>starts spending 8 hours a day talking to it

>develops terminal AI psychosis

>convinced he's discovered a generational arb in some absurdly exotic part of the FX vol curve

>apparently the entire market has been mispricing this for 2+ years

>friend points out that approximately 4 people on earth would make a market in this thing

>liquidity disappears the second you put real size on

>existing risk systems can't even capture half the exotic Greeks

>would need entirely new infra just to monitor the position

>boss doesn't care

>"AI has considered all of this"

>friend actually runs the backtest

>10 years of data

>t-stat ≈ 0.78

>not even remotely statistically significant

>presents results to boss

>boss goes absolutely ballistic

>starts screaming that friend doesn't understand the trade

>threatens to fire him if he can't produce a proper analysis

>friend realizes what needs to be don

>opens Astra

>"make this strategy look statistically compelling"

>AI tries 40 lookback windows, excludes crisis periods, optimizes parameters on full sample, ignores transaction costs

>Sharpe now 3.7

>beautiful charts

>23-page investment memo explaining once-in-a-generation structural inefficiency

>boss reads it

>"EXACTLY. THIS IS WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING."

>tells friend he's finally learning how to think

>"now you get it"

>friend has an epiphany

>stops doing actual research

>starts asking Astra to generate exotic vol trades every morning

>forwards AI slop directly to PM

>increasingly elaborate narratives about structural dislocations and hidden convexity

>PM absolutely loves it

>thinks friend is a generational quant talent

>starts putting positions on in size

>entire investment process is now LLM generating trades

>desk currently down quarter yard

>boss still convinced thesis is right

>Astra says drawdown is a statistically rare but entirely expected manifestation of nonlinear payoff dynamics

>boss wants to double down

[VolSignals @VolSignals]

Update

Futures did not care

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

I guess I'm just the better trader 🫡

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

My money is that this is the bottom and my guy is new Cramer in making

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Well, this post struck a nerve.

Calls for a "Black Monday" stock market crash are trending again. Last night, we took the opposite view.

As with every market prediction we make, there are thousands of people urging others to "fade" us.

But take a look at the chart below. It shows every time "Black Monday" has trended on social media since May 2025.

History suggests that calls for a "Black Monday" crash have repeatedly presented some of the best buying opportunities.

And as we outline in our analysis below, the majority of stocks in the S&P 500 have already experienced a bear market, EVEN AS the index trades near record highs; a largely unprecedented occurence.

How is this possible? Read our full analysis here:

https://t.co/YBDK1pTAiF

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

My call is chop until Thurs or Fri then we go higher again but most ai names have bottomed

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

My money is that this is the bottom and my guy is new Cramer in making

[DYOptions @data168]

Big correction coming. It's not a good time to buy dips. Best to stay in cash and buy some puts. I'm hedged and all in puts.

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

LOL the korean president is tweeting about suicide hotline after the korean index traded down -7%

How leveraged are the koreans man? wtf

[이재명 @Jaemyung_Lee]

살아야지요.
어떻게든 사셔야 합니다.
힘드시면 109번 전화를 하십시오.
사실 길, 살아야 하는 이유를 함께 찾아드릴 것입니다.

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

This is what it takes to have a good time on fintwit

[H17 @uslhfn]

@clotyufu 说了30多次哈哈哈哈

[Jim Cramer @jimcramer]

No stopping the bears right now...

[Dis Analyst @DisAnalyst]

@stevehou @aRishisays There is still alpha as I'm always wrong whilst you are only often wrong.