“We won’t even know we’ve lost control…the way it will feel is everything will just keep getting crazier and more confusing every single day”
-Connor Leahy
🤖🤖🤖🤖🤖
#AI#Superintelligence#truth#prayer#pray
How much of an earthquake was the METR report?
Sentinel forecasters dropped their timelines by 3 years.
Now, 3 in 4 support a unilateral halt on ASI development in the US.
They now predict an 11% chance the US government pauses AI.
New predictions:
"METR was a big update"
"Our forecasters’ estimate for the arrival of ASI absent a strong governance intervention is, as 10/50/90% confidence intervals: 2027.2 (2026 to 2027.5); 2028.2 (2027.5 to 2029); 2047.5 (2032 to 2085).
Strong governance interventions could include a months-long pause voluntarily agreed to by the frontier companies, but not liability or killswitch requirements.
Forecasters note that the METR report was a big update, but tempered by the fact that the acceleration is on “well-specified tasks”.
Unconditionally, they think there’s a 6% chance in aggregate that humanity will go extinct because of AI in the next decade, with individual forecasters’ estimates at 0.2%, 2%, 31% and 50%. Some forecasters note that extinction is a very high bar, others that it might be the default path once we reach a self-replicating robot economy.
They also think there’s an 11% chance (2% to 25%) that, before 2028, the US government will require a halt (including a pause or a ban) on frontier AI development that’s in place for at least 6 months and intended to prevent or postpone the development of superintelligence.
If this happens, their probability estimate for human extinction due to AI in the next decade drops to 2% (0.15% to 22%), but such a policy could also indicate that we live in a more dangerous world. If a similar policy is also in place in China within 12 months after US adoption, which they think there’s a 74% probability (45% to 90%) of happening, their probability estimate drops even further, to 1.3% (0.1% to 19%).
They note that the Trump administration doesn’t seem very amenable but that future developments, like catastrophic cyberattacks, could change their predisposition. If so, China might also choose a pause for the same reason as the US.
In August, we listed some potential policy responses and noted that we “generally endorse the less drastic options and are in favour of greater US-China cooperation, but internally disagree on whether a moratorium would be a good idea.”
Since then, and in response to shortening timelines, one additional forecaster now supports a unilateral halt on the development of ASI in the US, but there remains disagreement on this (three are now in favour, one is neutral), and our views are otherwise similar.
Here are two excerpts from forecaster perspectives, from the more decisive to the more cautious, one which would support a policy to “enforce a halt on development towards superintelligence on American AI companies as soon as possible, regardless of whether agreement with China or other countries can be obtained in advance,” and one which wouldn’t:
*** "I personally think it is super clear that we need to halt superintelligence development ASAP. I think we have good evidence on timelines from METR’s speedup measurement and modeling work by others. I think we have good evidence that this won’t turn out well empirically from this year: the Hugging Face attack, subsequent cyberattacks, and a lot of other evidence. I’m not sure we will get substantially stronger evidence, and I think it’s already more than strong enough. That’s why I’m suggesting actions that could be taken now and don’t gate on future information we may or may not learn. I think it’s important to consider taking action imminently, given that the arrival of superintelligence may be, and looks likely to me to be, imminent."
*** "Drastic unilateral policy measures would impose pretty high costs, would be very hard to push through politically with the current unreceptive administration, and would be hard to undo once implemented. They would also have large, potentially very hard-to-anticipate consequences. Today, I’d prefer more targeted and cautious measures: liability regimes for AI model developers, conditional pauses based on higher thresholds of damage, reform taxes in anticipation of greater unemployment, etc. Potentially one to six months from now, if and when there are more large-scale cyberattacks, I would support unconditional pauses, because then there would be the political will to make them more productive, and preparing for that conditional in order to “not let a crisis go to waste” seems, from where I’m standing, more meaningful than advocating for a pause now."
(AISM note: Sentinel (@xriskfyi) is great and you should subscribe to their newsletter)
h/t @ben_j_todd
He is right, but they are just trying to save themselves at this point. They know the American people, and billions of others worldwide are getting fed up with their nefarious BS! God is with humanity, satan is with them! It was written! 🙏🏼
🚨🇺🇸 WOW! Jeff Bezos wants the bottom 50% of American earners to pay ZERO taxes...
And he has a question for Washington:
“Why is a nurse in Queens making $75,000 a year paying $1,000 a month in taxes?”
Bezos argues that the bottom half of earners contribute just 3% of tax revenue anyway.
His solution? Stop collecting it from them entirely.
“We shouldn't be asking this nurse to send money to Washington. They should be sending her an apology.”
Writer: Samuel
@MarioNawfal He is right, but they are just trying to save themselves at this point. They know the American people, and billions of others worldwide are getting fed up with their nefarious BS! God is with humanity, satan is with them! It was written! 🙏🏼
🔴 The elites already left the human species.
Catherine Austin Fitts says a breakaway civilization is real, funded by the missing trillions and hidden tech that got funneled to private hands while the rest of us got treated like livestock.
They stopped seeing us as the same kind of people.
What they really mean to say is there won’t be any humans left here to endure any of those! Don’t forget, this comes just weeks after they openly told the world that their core product Superintelligence poses a real threat to the survival of the human race. I stopped listening to the dishonest words long ago, and I now only watch their actions. That goes for any of them politicians, corporations, globalist, mainstream media.
🚨 THE UNITED NATIONS JUST SOUNDED THE ALARM… AND ITS TERRIFYING WARNING ABOUT WHAT'S COMING HAS PEOPLE PANICKING
The United Nations just delivered a chilling warning about what's coming, and the predictions sound like something straight out of a doomsday movie.
Massive food shortages.
Economic devastation.
Escalating conflicts.
Millions potentially forced from their homes.
And the UN is warning that the consequences could spread across the entire planet.
A UN official described the El Niño threat as a “wrecking ball” warning that up to 50 million people could face increased hunger.
People are questioning whether the world is witnessing an unprecedented natural climate threat or whether powerful institutions know more about the future than they're revealing.
The combination of food shortages, economic shocks, conflict, and mass migration has people asking some uncomfortable questions.
Is this simply a warning about extreme weather, or are we watching the opening stages of a global crisis that powerful people have been preparing for while the rest of us remain in the dark?
@ONagel33303@michhuan@SecRubio Then why is Trumps administration working at break next speed to roll this technology out, or at least facilitate the ones that are doing it. I stopped listening to their dishonest words long ago, I now only pay attention to their actions!💯
Most things are! The conspiracy realists are batting like 80 to 90% bro! And that’s not a conspiracy my friend, that’s the facts!💯
That’s what happens when the world is run primarily by evil satanic Cain descendant bloodlines, who answer to extra dimensional beings! The fallen angels!
🚨 Scientists Believe the Human Mind May Connect to a Cosmic Intelligence
Quantum researchers are exploring a shocking idea — that human consciousness could be linked to a larger universal mind. Some theories suggest the brain may access hidden information fields that influence healing, awareness, and balance.
While scientists still debate the evidence, the research is raising mysterious questions about whether the universe — and human consciousness — are deeply connected in ways we never imagined.
Reference:
Hameroff, S., & Penrose, R. Consciousness in the universe: A review of the ‘Orch OR’ theory. Physics of Life Reviews