How many inches of snow will Washington, D.C. get this month?
Current pricing shows the market clustered around the middle ranges: 5-7", 7-9", 9-11" all around similar probabilities (35-36%)
So the most likely outcome right now looks like 5-7 inches
Why that makes sense:
- Weather models are predicting a strong winter pattern and colder than normal temperatures in D.C. this month.
- Forecasts and storm systems suggest the region could see heavy snow later this week, potentially rivaling significant past January events.
- Northern Mid-Atlantic snow totals are notoriously hard to pin down, small changes in storm track can swing totals a lot.
*Better use limit order*
Prediction markets are pricing the uncertainty + elevated risk at the moment
Lead bank in SpaceX’s IPO?
The market is leaning toward Goldman Sachs as the most likely lead bank
Why Goldman makes the most sense:
- Deep experience leading mega-IPOs
- Strong long-standing relationships with top tech & aerospace companies
- Trusted by institutional investors for complex, high-profile deals
- Goldman has been involved in multiple SpaceX funding rounds in the past
SpaceX’s IPO will be one of the biggest market events of the decade and the choice of lead bank matters more than most people think