DKo_Invest

Molecular & Cell Biology BSc
Professional Healthcare Investor
Former Barclays Equity Research

[DKo_Invest @DkoInvest]

@plainyogurt21 @BreakingBioMatt Ohh I see, didn’t understand your question properly.
I think the number would be higher, but some dilution from the upper end (AI-dosing) and some of the non-responders in DAZZLE having improved results and durability. Eyeballing it, I’d say at least 75% reach at least Q12W.

[DKo_Invest @DkoInvest]

@plainyogurt21 @BreakingBioMatt The DAZZLE data. You can find it online.

[DKo_Invest @DkoInvest]

@plainyogurt21 @BreakingBioMatt It was 10.3%, but I would urge you to not rely on DAZZLE results too much as the formulation was different in that trial vs DAYBREAK.

[DKo_Invest @DkoInvest]

@lcbnuoH @Anthony_TayIor @BreakingBioMatt Summary of GLOW1 & 2 from my write up

[DKo_Invest @DkoInvest]

@MartinShkreli Watched your YouTube vid, seems like you completely missed the nuances between the trials and the new formulation.

[DKo_Invest @DkoInvest]

@hithopadesa @YGOUCHA I don’t think more than 60% will achieve Q24W judging by what we’ve seen in the trials so far. Here’s my thoughts (assuming no safety signals and KSI-501 showing IL-6 benefit):
>45% Q24W : $60/share
>45% Q20W : $45-50/share
Inferior durability: $20/share

[DKo_Invest @DkoInvest]

@Anthony_TayIor @BreakingBioMatt Stock up 13% in after hours without an actual topline read, only an announcement.

Great time to add to your short if your conviction is high enough.

[DKo_Invest @DkoInvest]

@Anthony_TayIor @BreakingBioMatt We’ll get our answer next week.

Most sell-siders model 70-80% PoS. If you believe you’ve done more work than these PhD/MD sell-side analysts and professional investors like me, then by all means, go short.

Won’t deny the short setup looks attractive from a high level.

[DKo_Invest @DkoInvest]

@Anthony_TayIor @BreakingBioMatt Doesn’t cut half life, you just have less of the longer-half life Ab.
Sure, you have 20% less ABC-conjugate, but the free Ab will clear VEGF more effectively than the steric-hindered conjugates - leading to a lower total VEGF starting line, boosting immediate efficacy.

[DKo_Invest @DkoInvest]

@Anthony_TayIor This will age poorly.
Bookmarking for later

[DKo_Invest @DkoInvest]

@hbbbiotech @BreakingBioMatt See my long-winded explanation below.

This is all based on my theorizing, but my hypothesis is the only thing that I can see reasonably explaining the pattern I notice across DAZZLE, DAYLIGHT, and GLOW1/2.

[DKo_Invest @DkoInvest]

@YGOUCHA Not sure if REGN would buy KOD if DAYBREAK hits. They would be paying a public market premium to cannibalize their own sales. I could see another strategic taking an interest as a bolt-on as a way of entering the VEGF/RVD market, but may need to invest in hiring reps.

[DKo_Invest @DkoInvest]

@BreakingBioMatt I think if it flops and gives a durability of Q12W, the stock will sell off to $20-25 range, the pre-GLOW2 levels. Because at that point, $KOD can’t compete on efficacy - so they would have to compete on price. Which is a non issue for wAMD, as most patients are Medicare covered.

[DKo_Invest @DkoInvest]

@BreakingBioMatt Here are 2 pages from said 12 page report outlining my entire rationale.
That being said, I am a bit concerned on their AI-driven dosing, which will definitely lower the true real-world-reflective durability at the benefit of increasing the chance of hitting the endpoints.

[DKo_Invest @DkoInvest]

@BreakingBioMatt Just for context: I spent 3 weeks researching KOD and wrote a 12 page report previewing the DAYBREAK trial.
At first glance, yes it would not be unreasonable to think that less conjugated Ab -> lower durability. My thesis is that the unconjugated Ab is more efficacious …