Chris Dobbins

Founder building practical applications and ventures with AI. Sharing what I build and learn. Private markets. Calm leadership. Human judgment.

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

I’m Chris Dobbins, a founder, builder and writer based in Boston.

After more than two decades in financial services, working across private markets, product development, operations and leadership, I’m applying that experience to building with AI.

My focus is practical applications, original content and new ventures. I’m interested in what happens when people combine deep experience in their field with tools that let them create things they couldn’t easily build before.

I’d like to connect with people around the world who are exploring that possibility, especially experienced professionals, researchers, creators and business owners.

Perhaps you see a problem in your field that deserves a better solution. Or you have an idea, a body of knowledge or a creative ambition you’d like to develop. Not every worthwhile project needs to become a startup.

Here, I’ll share what I’m building and learning, alongside thoughts on markets, leadership and human judgment.

If you’re curious about what AI could help you create in your own field, I’d be glad to compare notes. Reply and tell me what you do and what you’d like to explore.

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

@liquidtrading

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

@MentoviaX Interesting day, but I’m not sure money clearly picked an Elon name. SPCX faded from an early high, much like yesterday. TSLA was soft before the merger headlines, briefly topped $401, then closed at $397. The merger idea isn’t new, though the reported December timing is.

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

@wallstengine It feels like we’re still in the early stages of this story. People have been quick to take sides, but many of the details remain unknown. I’m interested in what emerges as the reporting develops and as Jensen Huang is expected to appear before Congress.

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

“Massive mistake” feels premature. NVIDIA’s board has access to information we don’t, and the speed of Huang’s resignation suggests there may be more context we haven’t seen. His departure creates real uncertainty, but we can’t know yet whether keeping him would have been better for the company or shareholders.

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

@KevRGordon Tough backdrop for anything priced on payoffs a few years out. When money gets more expensive, patience gets more expensive too.

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

@Chart_Guy It flushed to about 119 at the open and has been chopping between there and the low 130s since. Feels like the market is willing to buy one delay. What it won't forgive is a second one. That's when 100 shows up.

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

@MentoviaX Wild that the revenue beat is the least important number in the release. Capex goes up, the 2026 guide drifts to the low end and the capacity shows up later. Spending more to deliver later is what the whole group is trading off.

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

@MikeZaccardi The NY Fed survey has people more worried about unemployment than any time since 2020, and continuing claims just matched the fewest since March 2023. One is a feeling and one is a filing. Until they meet, I'm weighting the filing.

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

@Mr_Derivatives "For now" is carrying a lot of weight here. It already slipped under premarket and got bought back, with Nvidia down about 8%. A poke doesn't change my read. A close under it would.

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

@TheProfInvestor Same theme, two days, opposite reactions. CoreWeave gets paid for backlog and Nebius gets punished for a delay. Feels like the market stopped trading the AI story and started trading delivery dates.

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

@TehLamboX Called the 140 level and got the close. What gets me is the beat didn't matter. The market is pricing when the capacity actually comes online, not the revenue. Where's the next level you're watching, or does it get messier from here?

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

Sources
$NBIS: https://t.co/0Jedi1oKOL
https://t.co/cjiE9DPzvF
Claims: https://t.co/zM32L4wukD
Survey: https://t.co/O4uNdo8gUD
$SPCX: https://t.co/jSaD19WCQf
$CSCO: https://t.co/V7gnrOflCL
$AMAT: https://t.co/5zj04w1Ubj
$CBRS: https://t.co/RC4oGgHp6o
PPI: https://t.co/kexKSXOfDi

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

Morning DD, Thu Nov 12

Nebius beat on revenue this morning, but some of the capacity it expected to bring online this year has slipped into the first half of 2027. The stock is down about 11% before the bell.
After CoreWeave's report Tuesday night, this is the second AI cloud report in two days, and the test is the same. Sold capacity only turns into revenue once it is plugged in. Weekly jobless claims at 8:30am ET are the other data point today.
Premarket prices as of 8:02am ET, crypto since midnight UTC.

1. $NBIS $CRWV $MSFT
Nebius says Q3 revenue was $980.8M, up 571% from a year earlier. CNBC reports analysts expected $907.5M, per LSEG.
Adjusted EBITDA was $465.8M. The net loss from continuing operations was $37.5M.
Nebius says some third-party capacity it expected this year is now scheduled for the first half of 2027, and the contracts behind it remain in place. It now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its $3.0B to $3.4B range.
The company says it expects to deliver more than half of the New Jersey capacity contracted with Microsoft by year end, with the rest now scheduled for Q2 2027.
Nebius now expects 2026 capex of about $27B, above its $20B to $25B range. Its first 2027 outlook calls for revenue of $12B to $13B and capex of $40B to $45B.
Capex is the money spent on data centers, chips and other equipment.
$NBIS is down about 11% premarket. $CRWV is down about 10%.

I'm watching how much of the 2027 outlook depends on capacity that is not online yet.

2. $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $MU $INTC $SOXX
Chip stocks are split before the bell. $NVDA rose about 2.9% Wednesday and is down about 7.7% premarket.
$AMD is up about 1.4% and $AVGO about 0.9%.
$MU and $INTC, which I'm watching, are down about 4.7% and 3.3%.
SOXX, an ETF that holds semiconductor stocks, is down about 2.5%.

I'm watching whether Nvidia stays this far behind AMD and Broadcom after the open.

3. $SPY $QQQ
The Labor Department's weekly jobless claims report is due at 8:30am ET. It counts people filing a first claim for unemployment benefits, an early read on layoffs.
The New York Fed's October consumer survey, released Monday, put the average expected chance that unemployment is higher a year from now at 45.3%. The New York Fed says that is the highest since April 2020.
SPY is down about 0.5% premarket and QQQ about 1.0%.

I'm watching whether claims start to match what consumers say they expect.

4. $SPCX
SpaceX says Starship Flight 15 could launch as soon as Friday, pending regulatory approval, with a 75-minute window opening at 5:45pm ET.
SpaceX says the flight is planned to be the first to return both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship upper stage to the launch site for a catch. The ship is planned to deploy 26 Starlink V3 satellites on a flight of more than 22 hours.
SpaceX says it will try the ship catch only if the vehicle's systems are healthy.
$SPCX, which I'm watching, is down about 0.9% premarket.

I'm watching whether the ship catch is attempted.

$BTC was near $72,800, down about 1.5% since midnight UTC, and $ETH near $2,017, down about 1.8%, as of 8:01am ET.

5. On deck
$CSCO and $AMAT report after the close today, and $CBRS hosts its earnings call at 5pm ET. October PPI, the monthly read on prices businesses receive, comes out Friday at 8:30am ET.

With Applied Materials tonight, I'm watching what chip equipment orders say about the pace of the buildout.

What would tell you that AI capacity is coming online on schedule?

Personal observations, not investment advice.

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

The headline beat was strong, and demand still looks healthy. But the report also points to delayed capacity, softer near-term timing and a much bigger spending bill. My read is that traders are weighing those concerns against the beat. The 8 a.m. call will be important for more clarity.

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

@TehLamboX Bullish on MU medium to long term. Yesterday’s close back above the 200-day was encouraging after an oversold stretch. I wouldn’t be surprised by a retest, even a brief dip below, before the next move higher.

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

Sources
$CRWV: https://t.co/mjzq6tjvuk
https://t.co/E2y1zRRhNI
Fed: https://t.co/q6Cq7d65rL
Bonds: https://t.co/xPhmTS1wkP
$MU: https://t.co/E2y1zRRhNI
$SPCX: https://t.co/wOHAaurPEI
$RGTI: https://t.co/AEZSSL9LU7
$NBIS: https://t.co/0tSMWeRPKX
PPI: https://t.co/WUwF2fDK8m
$CSCO: https://t.co/ByAEHyxhjC
$AMAT: https://t.co/HXIv4QbVKE

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

Closing DD, Wed Nov 11

CoreWeave rose 24.7% a day after reporting Q3 results, and AI cloud, memory and chip stocks rose too. The S&P 500 ETF rose 1.3% and the Nasdaq-100 ETF rose 2.3%.

A day after Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman said AI revenues are not yet enough to pay for the cost of running and building AI models and data centers, AI infrastructure stocks rallied. SIFMA recommended a full close for US bond trading for Veterans Day, so today was mostly a stock market story.

1. $SPY $QQQ $DIA $IWM $SMH
SPY rose 1.3% and QQQ rose 2.3%.
DIA rose 0.5%. Small caps in IWM rose 0.9%.
Chips in SMH rose 4.8%.
TLT, which trades on stock exchanges, was nearly flat.

I'm watching whether the rally holds when bond trading reopens Thursday.

2. $CRWV $NBIS $ORCL
CoreWeave says Q3 revenue was $3.66B, up from $1.37B a year earlier. It says revenue backlog was about $132.5B at the end of September.
CEO Michael Intrator told CNBC that "demand for the infrastructure is and remains overwhelming."
CRWV rose 24.7%. NBIS, another AI cloud provider that reports Thursday, rose 15.4%.
ORCL rose 8.8%.

I'm watching whether Nebius describes demand the same way Thursday morning.

3. $MU $SNDK $LITE $AAOI
Memory and optical networking stocks posted some of the day's biggest gains.
MU, which I'm watching, rose 11.9% and SNDK rose 13.7%.
LITE rose 10.7% and AAOI rose 15.6%.
CNBC grouped the memory and photonics moves with the AI trade that climbed alongside CoreWeave. I haven't seen a Micron-specific company announcement today.
Photonics companies make the lasers and optical parts that move data between AI servers.

I'm watching whether memory holds these gains if the AI cloud names cool off.

4. $NVDA $INTC $AMD $AVGO $TSM $SOXX
NVDA rose 2.9%. It had fallen 5.5% Tuesday and 4.3% Monday.
INTC, which I'm watching, rose 7.5%. AMD rose 7.3%.
AVGO rose 4.0% and TSM rose 4.3%.
SOXX, an ETF that holds semiconductor stocks, rose 6.0%.

I'm watching whether Nvidia keeps lagging the rest of the chip group.

5. $SPCX
In a notice released Tuesday, the FCC said SpaceX's applications to take control of 546 paired 800 MHz licenses from Grain Management are acceptable for filing.
Acceptance opens public review. It is not approval. Comments and petitions to deny are due December 1.
SPCX, which I'm watching, fell 2.3%.

I'm watching who files comments on the deal by December 1.

6. $RGTI
Rigetti says Q3 revenue was $1.4M and GAAP net loss was $3.1M.
It expects 2026 revenue of about $20M, assuming its customer C-DAC accepts a delivered system in Q4.
RGTI traded higher before the open but closed down 8.6%.

I'm watching whether that Q4 acceptance comes through on time.

$BTC was near $73,800, up about 0.1% since midnight UTC, and $ETH near $2,051, up about 0.0%, as of 6:01pm ET.

On deck
$NBIS reports Q3 results Thursday before the open, with a call at 8am ET. October PPI, the monthly read on prices businesses receive, comes out Friday at 8:30am ET.
$CSCO reports after the close Thursday, and $AMAT holds its results call at 4:30pm ET.

With CoreWeave's numbers in hand, I'm watching whether a second AI cloud provider tells a similar story on demand and financing.

What part of CoreWeave's report mattered most to you?

Personal observations, not investment advice.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

Once again, congratulations to Lori Mills h̶u̶a̶n̶g̶ for becoming the third richest woman in the world.

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

@Chart_Guy After a strong session, do you put more weight on the channel break itself or how price behaves on the first retest?

[Chris Dobbins @DobbinsDownload]

@TheProfInvestor When price undercuts a planned level like 135, what tells you the setup is still intact versus time to reassess?