나스닥 마3룰 발동
한국 투자자들 사이에서 얘기 나오는 마3룰
1. 나스닥 지수가 하루 -3% 이상 하락하면 → 전량 매도
2.이후 한 달간 -3% 이상이 다시 뜨지 않으면 → 재매수 (안정화 판단)
3. -3% 이상이 4번 이상 뜨면 (공황 판단) → 마지막 -3% 뜬 날로부터 2개월 후 매수
Last time $SPY broke under 20SMA it crashed from $700 to $630.
Today, it broke it again for 1st time in 4 months. It can break under $700 very soon.
Everything is ON SALE, make sure to buy at key levels:
1. $728-$730 previous area of consolidation and institutional buy zone
2. $715 (50SMA) massive demand zone and bounce area
3. $697-$700 hard support and powerful demand and consolidation
4. $640-$670 hard breakaway gap area to fill
I warned you a sell off was coming leading up to June 17 FOMC with Kevin Warsh. Don't be scared its time to buy the dips!
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If anyone wonders why I think so:
1. The VIX is at its lowest level since Christmas despite all the uncertainty. It also has the highest short interest recorded this year.
2. There is no upside catalyst left, earnings season is essentially over.
3. Google and Broadcom delivered strong warning signs that the AI bubble may be deflating.
4. $NVDA is being sold aggressively, especially into the close.
$SPY levels for tomorrow... Already broke lows in AH. Maybe a retest of lows and dump in the morning or maybe he tweets something at the 200 ema below.
My forecast from the weekend stack.
The final numbers for the pullback depend on whether $SPX makes it to my 7,650 target or not.
But this framework should be very close.
Wellll wellll welllll, looks like the bulls might be on borrowed time. I've seen heavy call selling the last few sessions, but today is the first day I've seen heavy put buying like this on SPX. Institutional money appears to be changing direction while the retail kids are selling kidneys to go long.
🚨 NOBODY IS ACTUALLY BUYING THIS S&P 500 RALLY
Think of volume as the number of real buyers in a market
Price going up with high volume means real demand is driving it
Price going up without volume means a small number of big players are pushing it on thin air
Right now SPX is printing higher highs while RSI and MACD are making lower highs - the engine is losing power even as the speedometer climbs
And it gets worse: strip out 5-6 AI megacaps and the average S&P 500 stock is going nowhere - the "rally" is a handful of names holding up the whole index
Now add the oil shock
The Strait of Hormuz closed in March - that's the waterway carrying 35% of the world's seaborne crude - and Brent already hit $120
Every time oil spiked like this:
1990 -> oil surged -> S&P -20%
2008 -> oil hit $147 -> S&P -57%
2022 -> oil pumped +70% -> S&P -28%
A thin rally with no real buyers, breadth falling apart underneath, and the largest oil shock since 2022 already in motion
When the real sellers show up there won't be enough buyers to absorb them
As for me, this is exactly how the early 2025 low-volume rally ended - and I'm watching the same setup play out again right now
Don't mistake a thin push for a strong market
Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated!