Funny how people act like Zuck fumbled.
If Meta had >$100B chasing a low-margin cloud war against three giants instead of printing 50% margins from ads, then the stock would be “doing the right thing.”
The absolute biggest thing people are completely missing about the AI agent revolution
It’s not the days of work it saves you
It’s the years of training you no longer need to do that work
33% Y/Y growth for $META is so impressive.
No large compute renting operation helping growth.
Massive scale. Sharp acceleration beyond help from easier comps. Impressive.
Meta’s AI story is fundamentally different from the hyperscalers.
When growth inevitably slows, cloud players (already ~30% margin buisinesses) will compete aggressively on price to defend market share. AI will becomes a margin compression story.
Meta is the opposite.
If you don’t see it yet…
Feel free to bookmark this and come grave dance if I’m wrong but mark my words:
There won’t be another company that makes more money from AI outside the semi ecosystem than $META.
Funny, it feels like if $META were instead trading at 63x Adj PE (107x on GAAP basis ofc) it would be up 50% YTD and would show up on every HF Q1 13F as a top 5 position.
And actually if it were growing a little slower too - right now they are actually crushing things so hard that it’s a little difficult for most investors to understand what’s going on - hence people doing nothing and making up fake narratives “the multiple is too low, there must be something wrong that I’m missing like [regulation / capital allocation / they are growing too fast it must not be sustainable / the stock has gone up too much so too risky / stock has gone down too much so too risky / etc]”
Last week:
"Not remotely close to the bottom. Hoard cash. Not time to buy. Going so much lower. Software is dead.
This week:
"What were you waiting for? That was the bottom. Opportunity of a lifetime. Up & to the right from here. They’re not all losers.”
META DETHRONING GOOGLE AS WORLD’S LARGEST AD BUSINESS
>google ad revenue: $239B
>growth 11.9% and flatlining
>meta ad revenue: $243B
>growth 24.1% and accelerating
META’s AI bets are already printing money:
>ai boosted reels watch time up 30%
>ai slop tools for advertisers printing $10B/year
The Zucc is winning.
facebook is still the undisputed apex predator of distribution when it comes to growth & growth hacking.
they’ve done this exact playbook before with messenger & threads.
every possible pixel inside of instagram, & fb will become a funnel into meta ai.