I will be posting daily exclusively regarding my sports betting process. this will be the place where you can see final plays, the process behind them, how that process comes together throughout the week and MUCH more.
Ravens +150 for SNF
Patrick reveals the final piece of the puzzle, confirmed book need. Model edge on BAL, confirmed sharp on BAL +3.5, market move to model. one of the stronger signal stacks of the week. Passed on the +3 at EV for the ML, staying consistent with my process.
Falcons just moved from -3.5 to -3 vs. Ravens at @BetMGM. Still, there's plenty of Atlanta interest, with Baltimore missing Lamar Jackson.
"There's lots of money still to be bet. But at this stage, we want the Ravens to win."
โ Tristan Davis, trading manager
Arizona +5.5 -112 0.7u
Arizona +205 0.3u
Model edge, confirmed book need, late movement taking this to 5. Phenomenal combination for a late slate winner๐ค๐ป
Packers +105
Books are taking a massive stake in Green Bay so I am on board. Line has continued to move in GBโs favor all week despite massive public action the other way. Model has GB small favorite with Caleb Williams out. Line movement towards model.
Saints +115
Model has NO a small favorite here. @SimonHunterNFL play of the week. MINN seeing public action. reported sharp on both sides. Line moving towards model + pro is the signal stack weโre chasing here.
Miami +7 -110
7 is back so iโm in. confirmed sharp/pro action on MIA, public heavy CIN, projected book need MIA. Line moving towards model (-5) + sharp action has been strong combo so far this year. I think the line settles in here but if itโs going anywhere itโs back to 6.5 imo
MIA too is the right side to be on hosting CIN. Missed the best of the number. Books willing to bring this from 7.5 -> 6.5 despite seeing so much public CIN pressure tells the entire story. Donโt know if iโll bet below 7, but if it gets bacm to that key number iโll likely take it
Saints will almost certainly be a ML play. Model has NO favored, big signal stack has already appeared. Pros, especially @SimonHunterNFL coming in on the Saints. +2.5 should be the best of the number we see for spread bettors.
Just some notes to blurb ๐งต
commanders or nothing in that game, line moving up. might pass after missing the 3.5 unless the signal gets stronger. pretty strong already though, seeing reverse response to heavy public action on giants. pro side is washington. daniels likely back
MIA too is the right side to be on hosting CIN. Missed the best of the number. Books willing to bring this from 7.5 -> 6.5 despite seeing so much public CIN pressure tells the entire story. Donโt know if iโll bet below 7, but if it gets bacm to that key number iโll likely take it
@CoachCosey@MySportsUpdate not necessarily. a lot of things need to happen before that would be necessary. and if it has to happen iโm not saying it for sure will but the fact that it can factors into the decision to go for it there.
late money pushed this back to 9.5. something that canโt be ignored. sharp money pushing this back up, hate to be against it. win or lose tonight we will learn from this
TB -8.5 -105 for TNF
Large signal stack on TB tonight including the market moving towards my model, which LOVES TB. Dallas is heavily public, heavy pro action on the bucs driving the line down. Books projected need is tampa, aligning myself with them here.
Signal Combo Results:
Model + Sharp/Pro Agree: 12-4 (75%)
Model + Market Moves To Model: 14-8 (63.6%)
Sharp/Pro + Conf. Book Need: 6-3 (66.7%)
Early Need + Conf. Book Need 8-4 (66.7%)
Model + Book Need + Market Move to Model: 5-1 (83.3%)
PIT -2.5 -110
Model PIT -3.87
Market has moved from -1.5 to -2.5 despite public Colts action
Cleaner signal stack than any of the games from last week
Early Book Need projected to be PIT as well
Jets -2 -110
Earliest bet iโve made all year. Already have a signal stack on the Jets, WEAK pro confirmation, + line movement towards model side and against early public movement. Using this as a test study to see if this process can be useful. Will update throughout week.