Admiral Hyman Rickover ran the US nuclear Navy for 34 years and got fired over the radio.
He sawed 6 inches off 2 chair legs to watch candidates slide while he grilled them.
Wrong answer got you 3 hours in a broom closet. Alone. Thinking.
He built the Nautilus, the first nuclear submarine, from scratch in 5 years. The Soviets never caught up. 141 ships ran on his reactors by the time he left. 1 in 4 admirals in the fleet were trained by him.
He never read Navy regulations. Banned the book from his office. Made a man burn his copy.
He was Jewish at Annapolis in the 1920s. Hazed harder than anyone. Decades later, the same men came asking him for favors. He said no.
"I have the charisma of a chipmunk," he told Diane Sawyer at 84. He wasn't joking.
Reagan pushed him out in 1982 after 64 years of service. Rickover didn't get a phone call.
"My wife told me. It's on the radio that you're fired."
General Dynamics gave him gifts for 16 years. $67,000 worth. He got censured for it.
He'd also accused them of $1 billion in false claims and refused to pay out.
2 months after he left, the Navy paid every dollar.
"Of course, that's a coincidence."
@mujifren 38yrs old? Nahhh she’s cooked & don’t even know it. Most 38yrs or older in that society with the qualities she’s looking for are all spoken for & will not dare marry a 38yrs old left over old hag. She can’t even give him children and most likely doesn’t know how to make a home.
A Japanese TV crew filmed the CEO of a 7 billion yen fast food chain for a feature on Japan's humble corporate culture. His head office in Shinagawa had 3 desks and cost 103,000 yen a month in rent. The office was that small because a Claude agent did the procurement, pricing, and contract work that normally fills three floors.
The crew showed the office. Two desks. One printer. Three employees. A rice cooker in the corner. The TV banner introduced him as the entrepreneur whose chain of snack shops sources rice directly from 312 farmers across Japan.
At 0:43 he says the word fleet. He says it once. He says it without looking at the camera. The crew kept the line because they thought he meant his delivery vans.
He did not mean delivery vans. He meant the fleet of Claude agents that runs every part of his company that does not require a human signature. The two desks at headquarters are for him and the CFO. The third employee is there to answer the phone.
One agent reads daily yield data from 312 rice farmers and sets the next morning's wholesale price for each variety. A second agent routes 47 stores worth of inventory based on the previous day's POS data. A third agent drafts every franchise contract and every supplier renewal. He signs every morning before the office opens. Japanese commercial law is satisfied.
Someone pulled the company's filings on the Tokyo commercial registry. Every contract filed in the last 14 months had been timestamped between 5:47 AM and 6:03 AM. Every supplier renewal used the same boilerplate clauses, written in slightly different prose each time. The morning shots in the TV segment showed an empty office because the agent had already done the work of 40 employees overnight.
Six months ago a 14 year old in Shenzhen pushed an AI agent to GitHub. Judges said no real world application. 3,100 forks later. The CEO had been one of them.
He still flies to rice paddies every spring. He still personally tastes every new variety before it gets a code in the system. He still tells investors the head office rent is 103,000 yen because it builds trust. He still has not told the farmers that the agent decided who got the new orders last quarter.
The TV crew thought the rundown head office was a story about a humble entrepreneur. It was actually a story about how many employees a 7 billion yen company does not need when one CEO signs what one Claude agent writes.
Three years ago today, on May 20th, 2023, I started compiling CitriniResearch’s first thematic primer “Artificial Intelligence: Global Equity Beneficiaries”.
The thesis was simple - if a bit controversial back then - AI compute demand would go beyond lifting just Nvidia, the massive scaling of data center infrastructure would mean that valuations in most of the semiconductor sector (at the time reflecting COVID supply gluts & recession fears) were far too low.
When I wrote this, SMH was still in a 30% drawdown from its 2021 highs. Because it would be far too difficult to predict what AI looked like in 5 years, I decided the best risk reward was in the beneficiaries of AI Capex spending - Phase 1, or the “global data center hyperscaling”, was the bottleneck for everything else.
The best risk reward was indeed in the data center infrastructure, and I got most of that right (as expected, the further in the future predictions were shakier). It makes me extremely proud to go back and read this piece - the mark of truly good work is that it is enduring. A subscriber could have gone and re-read this at any point in the past three years and found solid ideas.
It’s free to go back and read it, keep in mind this was published in May 2023.
It calls for outperformance in GPUs, Memory, Optical Interconnects, Semicap, Power Density, Cooling, Memory Testing and more. All 1-2 years before most of the trades became consensus. Nearly everything that we said would outperform in the first phase of the AI trade has done so, to a massive degree.
Some of the best performers out of the names that were highlighted in this piece:
Applied Optoelectronics +6850%
SK Hynix +1800%
Vertiv +1450%
Hanmi Semi +1435%
CRDO +1160%
My original goal was to publish just three thematic primers on the trends I thought would define the decade: AI, peptides and government spending.
However, those themes required more coverage. The AI trade evolved, the fiscal trade became more important than ever. Three years later, I’ve parlayed the early success of our work to build CitriniResearch and its team of analysts to produce the kind of equity research I would want to read.
https://t.co/pVv4ifWsmj
The 10-year Treasury yield is perhaps the most important financial benchmark in the global fiat system, as it drives valuations and market trends worldwide. It is widely—and erroneously—regarded as the risk-free rate of return.
The 10-year Treasury yield can be thought of as a key barometer of the US dollar-based fiat system—a critical measure akin to its beating heart.
Bond yields move inversely to bond prices. When bond prices fall, bond yields rise.
A rising 10-year Treasury yield signals trouble for the US dollar because it means investors are selling Treasuries, which pushes up the US government’s borrowing costs. That is why the 10-year Treasury yield is a major pain point for the US government.
The 10-year Treasury yield was 3.97% when the war started. Now it is around 4.60%, an increase of roughly 63 basis points.
I expect the 10-year Treasury yield to keep climbing over the coming weeks and months—until it forces the Fed’s hand. At that point, the intervention will be sold as “stability,” but the mechanism will be familiar: suppress yields by debasing the currency.
At today’s debt levels, every 1 basis point increase in the government’s average borrowing cost adds roughly $3.9 billion in annual interest expense. So a 63 bps rise is not trivial—it translates to nearly $250 billion in additional yearly interest costs, materially widening a 2025 budget deficit that was already around $1.8 trillion.
Higher yields mean the US government must pay tens or even hundreds of billions more in interest on its debt. At the same time, the global economy faces even greater added costs because Treasury rates serve as the benchmark for borrowing worldwide.
That is not an insignificant move. However, given all the headwinds I have discussed, I suspect the 10-year Treasury yield is headed much higher because investors will demand higher yields to compensate for rising inflation. Further, if Hormuz remains closed, drastically higher oil prices are all but certain. Higher energy prices mean higher prices across the economy and higher official inflation rates, which means investors will demand still higher yields to compensate.
The problem is that interest on the federal debt is already over $1.2 trillion and is now the second-largest item in the budget. The US government cannot afford yields going much higher because the interest expense would push it toward bankruptcy.
I am not sure how—or even if—the US government can manage this situation. Something has to give, and we will not have to wait long to find out what.
The Iran war may prove to be more than another foreign policy disaster. It could be the trigger that exposes the fragility of the entire dollar-based financial system.