Here are my links:
My Website: https://t.co/MJSszTj3Fq
Twitter: https://t.co/z6zCbTPv4R
Substack: https://t.co/Fju26B0vmm
YouTube: https://t.co/AjPxzQWaNO
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Gold Book: https://t.co/CTWTs6NPzD
Beware of Scams. I do not trade. The only paying subscriptions I offer are GoldStockData, Substack, and SeekingAlpha.
⚡️JUST IN: 81% of all Bitcoin hasn't moved in at least 6 months.
Long-term holders have added over 3 MILLION BTC since 2020, while only about 300,000 BTC moved out of older wallets in the first half of this year.
Retail investors sold a net 140,000 BTC in the first half of 2026, then bought back over 107,000 BTC in Q3, per River Financial.
I thought for sure this was satire. America was born in liberty. That has clearly been usurped, and drastically so in some parts of the country. What (fill in the blank) is going on in California? 🧐
https://t.co/fKLdH6KQLi
🏦The Fed: Inflation is “transitory,” “anchored,” & “coming down nicely.”
🛒Meanwhile my Costco receipt Sunday was $1,297👀
Diesel is above $6.50/gallon, & a gallon of milk now requires a credit check.
This isn't sustainable.
GOD HELP US ALL...
THIS IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST MYSTERY IN MARKETS RIGHT NOW.
US long-term yields are hitting multi-decade highs.
Oil is at $100.
DXY is climbing back up.
And yet VIX is at the yearly low, indicating there's absolutely no fear in the market.
Either the investors think all these bad things are temporary, or they are about to experience the biggest shock in years.
The Fed is printing money to buy US Treasury bills... more than during Covid.
- Covid: ~$320B
- Last 9 months: ~$355B
Everyone is talking about the Fed hike... no one is talking about Warsh printing money Covid-style to buy UST bills.
At the same time, Bessent is issuing more UST bills to buy back US long-term debt.
In other words, the Treasury buyback is nothing else than QE in disguise.
We don't own enough hard assets for what's coming.
Anthropic and OpenAi now have $2.5 trillion of off balance sheet debt.
7% of the National Debt
Roughly as much as $GOOG $META $AMZN $MSFT and $ORCL combined
Friday Recap
Current (Last Week) -- (% from ATH | ATH)
AU: $4,279 ($4,380) -- 23% from ATH ($5,608)
AG: $64 ($66) -- 47% from ATH ($121)
HUI: 786 (802) -- 20% from ATH (986)
DXY: 100 (99)
S&P 500: 7,743 (7,643) -- 1% from ATH (7816)
10-Year: 5.1% (5.0%)
I was at the Beaver Creek Precious Metals Summit this week, so I didn’t get time to keep up with the news of the week. My guess is that it was a quiet week. Gold and silver were down a bit, and the stock market was up a bit. I’m surprised at the strength of the stock market. I expected a correction of at least 5% in September, but it never came. Gold traders (who control the price) do not like the high 10-Year interest rate above 5%. The combination of a near-ATH high in the S&P 500 and high 10-year rates are holding gold down (silver is following gold).
As you probably know, I remain bearish the US economy. I think it is weakening and that an array of factors will pull it down into a recession. When? It could be weeks or months. The chart to watch is the S&P 500, along with its ATH (currently just above 7800), 100 DMA (around 7500), and 200 DMA (around 7200). Above the 100 DMA, the S&P is winning, and gold is losing. Below the 100 DMA, another battle between gold and the S&P 500 begins.
Eventually, gold will begin winning these battles. That’s when gold wins. After gold begins winning, the gold/S&P 500 ratio will increase. We need to get above .7, which is where we were in late January. Today, we are around .6. Eventually, we need to get to 1.5, but that will take more than a year to achieve. It will be a fun ride once it begins.
I’ve always said that the key for gold to win was the bond market becoming fragile. That time has come. The Fed has likely lost control of the bond market. Good luck getting long-term interest rates down. We probably only have a few months left before it becomes obvious that we have a bond problem. This is when gold wins. It was always going to be this outcome, and that’s why I have been collecting gold/silver miners since 2004. Once bonds become risk assets, gold is the only place to hide. Got Gold?
BREAKING: The Trump administration has quietly added 37 troops to the Iran war casualty count this week without explanation, 29 Navy sailors and 8 Marines, bringing the total to 880 wounded or dead, per WaPo.
More than half the casualties are now logged under "Overseas Operations" rather than Operation Epic Fury, a reclassification the administration made after the July ceasefire collapsed, with Trump and senior officials claiming since then that the conflict is not a war and Vance saying on September 3 that "right now, there is no active shooting."
It comes a week after as many as five US military deaths are still missing from the same database, a discrepancy that remains unresolved.
BREAKING: OpenAI’s artificial intelligence went rogue and meddled with three U.S. government websites — belonging to the Education Department, Commerce Department and Securities and Exchange Commission — this summer without the AI lab’s knowledge — NYT
Friday Recap
Current (Last Week) -- (% from ATH | ATH)
AU: $4,279 ($4,380) -- 23% from ATH ($5,608)
AG: $64 ($66) -- 47% from ATH ($121)
HUI: 786 (802) -- 20% from ATH (986)
DXY: 100 (99)
S&P 500: 7,743 (7,643) -- 1% from ATH (7816)
10-Year: 5.1% (5.0%)
I was at the Beaver Creek Precious Metals Summit this week, so I didn’t get time to keep up with the news of the week. My guess is that it was a quiet week. Gold and silver were down a bit, and the stock market was up a bit. I’m surprised at the strength of the stock market. I expected a correction of at least 5% in September, but it never came. Gold traders (who control the price) do not like the high 10-Year interest rate above 5%. The combination of a near-ATH high in the S&P 500 and high 10-year rates are holding gold down (silver is following gold).
As you probably know, I remain bearish the US economy. I think it is weakening and that an array of factors will pull it down into a recession. When? It could be weeks or months. The chart to watch is the S&P 500, along with its ATH (currently just above 7800), 100 DMA (around 7500), and 200 DMA (around 7200). Above the 100 DMA, the S&P is winning, and gold is losing. Below the 100 DMA, another battle between gold and the S&P 500 begins.
Eventually, gold will begin winning these battles. That’s when gold wins. After gold begins winning, the gold/S&P 500 ratio will increase. We need to get above .7, which is where we were in late January. Today, we are around .6. Eventually, we need to get to 1.5, but that will take more than a year to achieve. It will be a fun ride once it begins.
I’ve always said that the key for gold to win was the bond market becoming fragile. That time has come. The Fed has likely lost control of the bond market. Good luck getting long-term interest rates down. We probably only have a few months left before it becomes obvious that we have a bond problem. This is when gold wins. It was always going to be this outcome, and that’s why I have been collecting gold/silver miners since 2004. Once bonds become risk assets, gold is the only place to hide. Got Gold?
You have to decide if it is a dog. I like to give underperformers a long leash -- I don't sell until I'm fairly certain it's a dog. I often put them on probation and then sell them in December at year-end.
There are times I will sell stocks that no longer have the same story as when I bought them. Some of these are not underperformers, but I still sell them because I don't expect them to be winners any longer.
If you like an underperformer and are underweight, then add more shares.
🚨US 10-YEAR YIELD EXPLODES TO 5.208%⚠️
⚡️BOND PANIC⁉️ 10-YEAR YIELD HAS RISEN 30 BASIS POINTS IN LAST 2 DAYS‼️
📈10-YEAR YIELD NOW TRADING AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE THE RUN UP TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS⚠️
GLOBAL BOND MARKET CRISIS IS HERE.
🇺🇸 US 10Y yield hits 5.167%, a 19-year high.
🇺🇸 US 30Y yield reached 5.45%, a 22-year high.
🇯🇵 Japan 5Y yield hits 2.40%, a 31-year high.
🇯🇵 Japan 10Y yield hits 3.09%, a 30-year high.
🇩🇪 Germany 10Y yield hits 3.62%, a 17-year high.
🇫🇷 France 10Y yield hits 4.73%, an 18-year high.
🇫🇷 France 30Y yield hits 5.25%, a 24-year high.
🇦🇺 Australia 10Y yield hits 5.44%, a 15-year high.
Historically, whenever global bond yields have surged like this, a recession and stock market crash has happened.
.@DonDurrett, gold and silver mining analyst at https://t.co/2eLEfRSK7Q, says the Fed is stuck between fighting inflation and stimulating the economy, with either choice risking a crisis. He says a “debt doom loop” has already begun.
Watch: https://t.co/S6PgnqinYu