Douglas Lain

Disgusting CIA socialist, writer & YouTuber. Head of @sublationmedia.
Author of Bash, Bash, Revolution
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[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

Benjamin Studebaker on Post-Bonapartism https://t.co/HzjMSHIIxq

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

Predicting the Iran War Outcome https://t.co/yYa1l8UNZX

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

Dialectics and the News https://t.co/BkAEM7cn3z

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

Disclosure or Distraction? https://t.co/2wK5ljkMWk

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

@HighlandsBunker My error is so minor compared to the Iran is winning crowd.

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

I expected the Strait to be open by the end of April, and was wrong. So why was I wrong? Because Iran calculated that Trump would walk away in order to keep the price of gas down and his chances in the midterms up. That may be correct. The markets have priced in a relatively quick resolution of the conflict too. The UK is sending a warship to the Strait to assist with reopening by force.
If Iran doesn't make a deal here is what I think will happen next. There will be a US effort to force the Strait open, renewed but limited bombing to reduce Iran's capacity to interfere in the Strait, and eventually an International coalition. But it will take time, traffic won't resume at normal levels for several months, the Bull year will be over, and the Democrats will have a better shot at taking both houses.
This doesn't amount to an Iranian victory, but it does amount to a loss for Trump in particular, and a loss for everyone waiting for gas prices to go down.

[Chili Dog @RobertJMolnar]

pretty sure the game has run out.....we can expect Trump to do his usual Sunday "we have had great discussions and are close to a deal" bullshit tomorrow, but the markets aren't buying it anymore

Iran has choked Trump, and is in total control of the situation

and we and the world, are going to suffer

Not gonna lie......waiting on Iran regime to outright call for Trumps unconditional surrender lol

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

@walterkirn I am a Marxist and when I first published the 'zine that later became a long running podcast I listed it in fact sheet five under Ufos and Anarchism.
But I'm an outlier.

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

@pati_marins64 If Iran were to sink a US war ship the military response from the United States might very well be off the charts. That constrains Iran. This is asymmetric warfare and both sides are not unleashing all the might they could.

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

The WAPO article is based on an anonymous CIA agent. I remember when 17 intelligence agencies said that Trump was colluding with Russia.
The truth is probably betweeen Trump's overhyped claim and this number from the CIA.

[Daniel Dale @ddale8]

President Trump yesterday: "Their missiles are mostly decimated; they have some, they have probably 18, 19 percent, but not a lot by comparison to what they had."

WaPo today: "Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began."

https://t.co/vSKFZnAG5v

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

@thevivafrei Rubio said ten sailors on tankers have died while stuck in the strait.

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

The Iranian regime is certainly more oppressive and corrupt than the US. This is obvious to everyone.

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

@Amy_Siskind @BarakRavid @vplus It's nice that there is one stenographer for the administration.

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

@TheSwoletariat_ @TLiterarian No. That's wrong. And it's obviously wrong.

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

Iran will not control the Strait forever, and Iran is economically and politically in shambles.
We should all be fucking glad that a theocratic repressive regime isn't stronger than the most democratic and open country in the world. It's a positive sign.

[History Speaks @History__Speaks]

I sincerely do not understand the arguments that the US/Israel has "won" or is "winning" the Iran war.

Strategically speaking, the most important outcomes of the war so far are that Iran controls the Strait and the Iranian government has become much more hardline. It has also probably gained more support from the Iranian population, i.e. it is more entrenched than it was before the war.

Now, has the US killed vastly more Iranians (mostly civilians and conscripts) than Iranians have killed Americans? Sure. That's nothing of which to be proud. And more to the point, it doesn't entail the achievement of any strategic goals. If it did, the US won the wars in Afghanistan and Vietnam. Tactical achievements are not strategic victory.

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

@TheSwoletariat_ @OrphaoThe I'm right on both counts.

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

Hillary Clinton started an FBI investigation into her opponent, perpetrated a fraud on the American people called Russiagate, and her party instituted a massive censorship campaign.
The Democrats are certainly as corrupt as Trump.

[Michael Freeman @michaelpfreeman]

What a profoundly dishonest argument. Hillary Clinton didn't go to court dozens of times in an attempt to overturn votes, didn't call a state official and pressure him to find her several thousand votes, and didn't have her supporters storm the Capitol. She also conceded.

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

@WalshFreedom @joerogan Clinton was involved in pushing the Russiagate conspiracy from the beginning.

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

@citrinowicz Opening the of the Strait is going off script.

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

@Wehtammzo @ajamubaraka I was wrong again. Teach me to take tweets that I don't verify too seriously.

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

Project Freedom? (War is Politics by Other Means) https://t.co/vvyevTliQ7

[Douglas Lain @DougLain]

@adamscochran Is this the same proposal? Are you sure! You get timelines wrong.