Sent a friend a Polymarket wallet. Told him: this is definitely a quant.
He made $310,000 in just 8 months.
Friend replied: 'bro, this is info from Econ 101. Feed these formulas to your AI agent and it will replicate his results'.
1 minute to set up. I checked.
Started digging. Same markets as thousands of people. Same prices.
But there was one thing he did differently. He held his position. Most people exit an event within 1-2 days. He sat until resolution.
A formula from Econ 101. V = A / (1 + k × D).
Sounds complicated. In reality — one sentence. And it explains why 89% of traders lose money for no reason.
The brain devalues everything that's far away in time.
Say you enter a market with +80% potential. Resolution in 10 days. After 2 days your position is up 30%.
Brain recalculates: +80% in 10 days feels like +32% today. The gap between that and your +30% - a measly 2%. You exit.
In reality you just walked away from another +50%.
Impeachment. Entered at 12 cents. Day 3: price at 28. Position up 133%. Any normal person exits.
Day 19: resolves at 91. +$34,000. If he exited on day three - $4,800. A 7x difference.
Set up an agent in 1 minute. One instruction: don't exit until resolution.
31 trades. +68%. When I traded manually - 47 trades and +16%.
This is how Wall Street quants trade Polymarket. One formula and 1 minute to set up an agent.
Try it, ask your agent to optimize your strategy and let me know how much your winrate improved.