Olivia
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Trong Thinh
@Dragon21061
Joined January 2021
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10 bài học về đầu tư tài chính đắt giá từ sách "Tâm lý học về tiền" của Morgan Housel
Using staples to make a mini car.
This might look like just another central bank liquidity move, but it’s not. The BOJ stepping in to supply U.S. dollars against pooled collateral starting July 17 is one of those quiet, technical shifts that says more than any press release ever could. To me, this is about what’s coming for the entire global dollar system.
What I think is going on is Japanese institutions are feeling the squeeze. They’ve been running massive USD carry trades, borrowing in yen, buying U.S. assets, hedging the FX. That worked when dollar liquidity was easy and the hedge was cheap. But with Powell holding rates high and the yen tanking, the math’s breaking down. Rolling over those trades is getting riskier and more expensive. The BOJ’s stepping in not to fix a crisis, but to prevent one. They’re trying to calm their own system, keep Japanese firms from having to dump Treasuries or scramble for dollars in the open market. It’s preemptive firefighting.
But this isn’t just about Japan. This is about global dollar scarcity bleeding through the system. When one major central bank starts injecting USD liquidity domestically, it means private markets aren’t doing the job anymore. The cross currency basis has likely been widening under the surface. The U.S. is exporting interest rate pain, and the rest of the world is being forced to react. This kind of move hints that global demand for dollars is rising, and supply is getting tight. It’s not dramatic yet but it’s how stress starts.
And we’ve seen this movie before. 2008. 2011. 2019. 2020. Whenever global markets start losing confidence in clean, affordable access to dollar funding, things start to break. What follows? Fed swap lines get tapped. Repo markets seize. U.S. yields behave erratically. Foreign holders start unloading U.S. assets. And before you know it, the Fed has to step in, not because inflation is fixed, but because the global system is wobbling. This BOJ move feels like the opening credits to that kind of film.
So why now? Because they see what’s coming. Q3 and Q4 are stacked with dollar denominated debt maturities, especially in Asia and emerging markets. If those borrowers can’t roll their debt easily or if hedging costs keep climbing then we’re in for a wave of defensive firewalls going up. The BOJ is just the first to move. They’re telling you that dollar liquidity is tightening, and nobody wants to be caught flat footed when it cracks.
Central banks don’t do this stuff unless they’re feeling pressure behind the scenes. If this becomes a trend and if others follow then Powell’s hawkish delay game may be hitting the outer edge of what the global system can take before he’s forced to intervene. Quiet moves like this one are often the first signs.
VanEck 🤝10 Crypto Predictions for 2025
Prediction #1: Crypto bull market hits a medium-term peak in Q1, sets new highs in Q4. We project Bitcoin to be valued at around $180,000, Ethereum to trade above $6,000, Solana to exceed $500, and Sui to surpass $10.
Exit Strategy
The balance between 'letting winners ride' and 'not roundtripping to zero' is thin.
95% either sell everything too early or hold back to zero.
Hardly any talk about this, so let’s dive in: 👇🧵
1. Mindset
1.1 Acceptance and understand the goal
Accept you won’t sell everything at the top—it’s not the goal.
95% of the people try this, and 99% sell too early or hold to zero.
Set a new goal: sell higher than you bought and leave with more money than you started.
1.2 Don't compare yourself
Seeing others make millions doesn’t mean you’ve failed if you don't hit that while managing a 4-digit portfolio.
$10k is a lot.
$100k is a lot.
$1m is a lot.
It’s all relative.
Chasing Twitter exceptions will make you roundtrip. Don’t aim for their numbers—focus on growing what you have.
1.3 Longer term view
Stop aiming to get rich and retire this cycle. Most will feel it’s not enough at the end, even with multiples of what they started with.
This mindset leads to roundtripping. Think long-term.
Each cycle teaches you many lessons, and if you can manage to also end up with a big cash increase into the next bear market, you can compound gains and knowledge in the next cycle.
Many underestimate it how powerful it is to have a lot of cash into the next big downtrend.
Don’t aim to make it this cycle—aim for the next or the one after.
A few might get lucky with big wins, but most roundtrip 5-7 figures chasing more.
2. Have a plan
Don’t plan with the euphoric you during parabolic moves and falling dominance.
Plan with the current you:
> How will I scale out?
> Where (target zones) will I sell more?
> What do I not want to see in the markets?
> What do I do when I do see it?
> What if a position moves early but super hard?
3. Selling habit and gradually over time
Selling during strong price moves is hard—you’ll feel like it will keep going and you’ll miss out.
Start now by selling small batches to build a habit and become more robotic.
Set a slow pace (e.g., sell 0.5%-1% every two weeks) and create rules for when to increase limits.
Focus on building the habit first—your portfolio will still grow. Later, shift to larger selling volumes as needed.
You have to have a plan with certain metrics and things you want to see to understand where to increase the selling.
Aim to capture the bulk of the move gradually, not by selling everything at the top.
4. Change your life
If a position outperforms the market and prints beyond expectations, forget your targets—secure the money.
Sell half or more, cash out, and change your life.
5. Lock it truly in.
If you sell but leave the cash or Bitcoin on the exchange, and euphoria kicks in later. Still overconfident from your last win, you’re back in—chasing the next 100x your favorite influencer found.
Cash-out or move it to a hardware wallet. Make it harder to access and keep it safe.
6. Stop rotating
You put $1,000 into a token; it’s now $5,000, and you sold. Great! Do it again, and it’s $50,000. You’re sitting on $50k, thinking, “One more time, and I’ll make life-changing money.”
Your money goes into the next “cancer-curing” altcoin. It dips, but in a bull market, dips get bought up, right? This time it dips deeper and doesn’t bounce. You hold, telling yourself, “diamond hands.”
It’s now worth $20k. You feel terrible but keep holding. The market nukes again, and you’re now a community member. A year later, it’s worth $750—you’ve roundtripped everything.
Stop rotating endlessly. Secure money and sell to cash out, not to chase the next plan. The longer the uptrend lasts, the more euphoric and irrational you’ll get. Protect your gains—take them out.
7. Example plan (rough draft for inspiration)
*Make your own plan*
A) I’ll start selling a mini amount daily/weekly to build the habit and starting today.
B) Once the Total Altcoin or 'Others' chart shows 1-2+ weekly candles in price discovery, I’ll slowly increase these amounts. (and will again increase after x)
C) If a play outperforms my portfolio or gives me life-changing money, I’ll take it out—no matter where we are in the cycle.
D) If we hit a key zone (BTC, Total Altcoin, or your preferred chart), I’ll increase my daily/weekly selling volume again.
E) Certain price action or indicator, whatever you like: If we see a blow-off top, a blow-off candle, or a bearish market structure break, I’ll sell X% or increase my selling volume.
F) Come up with things yourself 😄
Making it is simple, but keeping it isn't easy.
Have you heard about the gambler who walked away with $1M and never returned? Me neither.
Most will make it, but very few will still be good in the next bear.
This market is gambling on attention; attention will fade away.
99.9% of the tokens will trade lower again in the future.
Secure profits.
In 2021 we had 25 days of up only after breaking previous cycle ATH.
If 2024 is similar, we still have 18 days of up only before the first big dip.
$BTC
🚨 Why are crypto ponzis always related to new stablecoins? A long post.
▫️ Buy 1 ETH for $3,000
▫️ Stake ETH into stETH
▫️ Turn stETH into wstETH
▫️ Use wstETH to mint mkUSD
▫️ Use mkUSD to borrow more ETH
▫️ Stake ETH into stETH...
This is how you create magic money and turn 3k into 30k. You double, triple, quadruple count the same collateral aka leverage it.
DeFi's total market cap pumps dozens of billions overnight in a bull market and also crashes 90% in a bear market because of it.
It's all FAKE money.
You create more "money" from nothing and stablecoins are a key ingredient in that recipe. They allow you to leverage up, fast.
This is no different than fractional reserve banking where your $3,000 bank deposit turns into $29,999 new money created from thin air.
To achieve such a feat, it takes 100 cycles of deposits. See my picture.
Crypto never reaches 100 cycles, because the bubble bursts sooner rather than later.
Fiat "economists" even call this process a "business cycle". A more appropriate name is a bubble driven by ponzinomics and irresponsible money creation due to greed.
If you read crypto twitter, you will see people talk about liquid staked tokens (LST like stETH) and liquid re-staking tokens (LRTs like reETH) as the next best thing in crypto since sliced bread.
WRONG.
It's the next big bubble or ponzi. EigenLayer should not excite you, it should WORRY you!
If you seek an alternative view, then hit a follow @duonine to stay updated as this bubble develops.
Once you start seeing this "amazing" new LRT token being used to mint stablecoins on your X feed know that the bubble is about to reach its peak.
The higher the market cap of those new shinny stablecoins backed by LRTs tokens, the bigger the bubble.
Remember, $3,000 is the actual collateral for $30,000! That's a 10x leverage.
If ETH is 3k and it crashes by 10% or $300, the bubble deflates by 3k! That's 3k gone in your new shiny LRT stablecoin!
Such stablecoins will go to zero in the worst case scenario. This is how a liquidation cascade starts and panic begins.
Why does this concern me?
Because it will hurt native ETH holders that don't even stake their ETH. Picture this.
Let's say the LRT bubble grows to $50 billion. Actual backing? $5 billion in ETH or even less.
How exactly can $50 billion exit or sell at a profit using $5 billion of ETH collateral?
It can't.
What happens next is people get wiped out. LST and LRT tokens crash vs ETH's price by 10%, 50% or more. Any stables backed by LST/LRT tokens depeg and crash even more.
In the process, as $50 billion of fake money wants to exit, it will drag down ETH's price beyond a normal correction or crash. ETH is the liquidity of last resort for LST/LRT tokens.
Worse. It will drag down BTC's price as well. Because people will become DESPERATE to exit at ALL costs, even if they lose 50% of their money or more. BTC is the liquidity of last resort in crypto, just like the Fed for USD.
This is why bear markets are BRUTAL. They correct such imbalances. They are necessary and do well to punish such greed.
Don't believe me?
Have you heard of Blast L2? That's an ENTIRE network that will use LST tokens and stablecoins backed by LSTs to give its users "native yield".
Those users have no idea what's coming in the next two years and they deposited BILLIONS on Blast L2.
Projects always seek to create more yield to attract users, but that comes at the risk of an entire network like Blast going insolvent if they don't control their greed.
Do you trust them to put breaks on making free money?
In the last crypto cycle, Terra Luna UST imploded to 0 from $50 billion. It also used a stablecoin for their project. It double, triple, quadruple counted the same money while pretending it was real. Greed took over.
You need to EXIT early and well before that $5 billion in real collateral is gone. Cash out and don't ape back. That includes removing all assets from networks like Blast L2.
You are only safe on NATIVE chains like ETH or BTC.
This time, the bubble will use ETH LRTs and associated stablecoins. I'm concerned and few people will write about this because it puts a break on this bubble and greed.
I've seen too many crypto cycles repeat the same story. This is nothing new. At the end of the day, crypto is a free for all. There's no regulation, but at least we can educate.
Why risk your ETH for 3-6% yield when ETH will 2-5X this cycle?
Funny enough, this LST/LRT bubble will also be the reason ETH will pump hard because all those tokens will LOCK-UP ETH as collateral in a huge pyramid.
When Vitalik decided to take Ethereum from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake he enabled and allowed the creation of such ponzimonic mechanisms.
For this reason alone, Bitcoin is superior.
Don't be fooled by this market and don't let greed take over. It ends badly.
Hit a like and retweet this message to wake up more people and don't forget to follow me @duonine
P.S. I respect anyone building in this space and any examples or tokens mentioned above are used for illustration purposes only. What will eventually happen, we will all find out, but let's call it as it is.
given all the noise in our space, it is pretty awesome when everyone comes together around the most important thing: product
love to everyone who shared the blinks rollout.
now the real work begins -- to ship blinks that get widely used. onwards!🫡
I fn love @rainfi_
Bought $1000 worth of SOL with just $100.
Repayment in 21 days, no risk of price liquidations.
🚨 BREAKING: FTX Estate has sold another 1.8M $SOL to Galaxy Trading and @PanteraCapital at a price of $95-$100 per SOL.
The locked tokens must follow a 4-year unlocking period.
The Emperor is stark naked in front of us, and the central planners are really hoping we don't notice.
The Yen is crashing.
Dollar-Yen just went through 156 like a hot katana through butter.
Why?
Partially because US bond yields have been ripping due to higher than expected inflation.
It turns out the fastest Fed rate increase in history hasn't worked as expected and the Fed is struggling to find an excuse to cut rates.
Now normally the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates to protect the currency.
But Japan can't afford to aggressively raise rates with 263% debt-to-GDP.
And even if they did, it would only send US rates higher as Japanese investors sold off trillions of foreign bonds to reinvest back in Japan.
So the Bank of Japan is watching the Yen collapse like a sika deer in headlights.
There's one way to end the Yen bloodbath: The US somehow forces interest rates and the dollar lower.
The US appears to be making rapid moves to prevent capital flight into self-custody BTC.
Coincidence? Maybe...
But sealing off the exits is a classic move before a currency devaluation.
If the monetary situation gets dire enough, don't be surprised if there's an "event" of some kind that provides cover for some major debt monetization.
Money printing usually happens in the background while there's a highly-charged emotional event happening in the foreground.
As always, don't fall for the tricks.
You control what you pay attention to, and you don't need to allow anyone to dominate a portion of your finite life with whatever story they want to force into your consciousness.
A good question to ask yourself in that moment: If I didn't have this screen in front of me, what would my world look like?
Chances are, it would be a lot more peaceful and beautiful than whatever they're trying to force feed you with via the algorithm.
Paraphrasing DJ Khaled... they don't want you to have scarce bearer assets, cash liquidity to ride out storms, and a bulletproof mindset biased towards positivity and optimism.
Major key.
Xterio là 1 dự án không nên miss
$XTER
Bộ 3 defi native trên #Base trong trận bão này của market:
- $AERO hàng DEX khỏe, giữ giá ổn
- $SEAM hàng Lending cũng khỏe không kém, ngược sóng ngược bão, sáng nay pump nhẹ 50%.
- #intentX hàng Perp dex - chờ ra token mình sẽ đấm mạnh.
Hàng native trên #base chain, hàng trend từ coinbase mùa này không thể xem nhẹ được, trong khi sóng defi summer đang chờ chực trước mắt.
Market crypto càng ngày càng rộng, muốn chơi hết ăn đủ là không thể, dàn trải sức ra thì mình thấy hiệu suất sẽ không cao.
Vậy nên từ giờ đến hết chu kỳ mình chỉ tập trung phần lớn vào đống keyword tối qua viết xàm xàm, nên công chuyện lớn thì chưa biết, còn nên công chuyện vừa vừa thì tới hiện tại đã thấy rõ rồi.
Thêm một biểu đồ nữa cho thấy sự nghịch lý của thị trường tài chính hiện tại.
Đường màu xanh là kỳ vọng về tỷ lệ % lãi suất của FED cuối năm nay. Ban đầu thị trường kỳ vọng 5-6 lần giảm lãi suất, sau đó giảm xuống còn 3 lần, và tiếp tục giảm xuống còn 2 lần.
Đường màu hồng là chỉ số S&P 500 và vẫn tăng trưởng liên tục mặc dù kỳ vọng giảm lãi suất đã giảm.
Vậy thì:
1- FED sẽ giảm lãi suất nhiều hơn so với kỳ vọng của thị trường?
2- Hay chỉ số cổ phiếu S&P 500 sẽ giảm để phản ánh tình hình lãi suất?
Szn2 of the Jumper Loyalty Pass is LIVE 💜
What’s new in Szn2? User profiles and high-value ecosystem campaigns!
The Loyalty Pass is more than a reflection of your contribution to Jumper; it is your onchain identity 🦸♂️
Here are the details 🧵👇
@ManhTuan85 Lần này làm lại với ENA. ^^
https://t.co/nlLHtmp1RX
🗓️2024 Crypto April Calendar
Mark your Crypto events!
1 Apr : Coinbase - $UNFI Delisting
2 Apr : $APT - "DeFi DAYS" Conference
2 Apr : FET·AGIX·OCEAN - Merger proposal
3 Apr : Binance - DREP·MOB·PNT Delisting
4 Apr : $BCH - Block Reward Halving
4 Apr : $JUP - $ZEUS Launchpad
5 Apr : $POLS - Truinflation IDO
6 Apr : Hongkong Web3 Festival
8 Apr : $ALT - Restaked Rollup Day
8 Apr : $COMBO - Web3 Game House 2024
10 Apr : U.S. - CPI
10 Apr : $SUI - "Sui basecamp" Conference
11 Apr : $XEC - Block Reward Halving
12 Apr : $ROSE - Brand refresh Reveal
12 Apr : $CYBER - QuickNode testnet
15 Apr~ : $STX - Nakamoto Upgrade
15 Apr : $STRK - 64M $STRK Unlock
16 Apr : FET·AGIX·OCEAN - Merger Voting ends
17 Apr : $SHDW - Testnet V2 Launch
18 Apr : $ERN - Major announcement
19 Apr : Coinbase vs SEC - Submit Case Management Plan Deadline
20 Apr : $BTC - Block Reward Halving
20 Apr : $DOGE - Doge day
25 Apr : $BEAM - Forgotten Playland Launching
26 Apr : $MNT - Mantle Rewards Station $ENA
29 Apr : Coinbase Future - $DOGE Listing
29 Apr : $VOXEL - Voxie Tactics Launch
30 Apr : $BNB - CZ Sentencing date
30 Apr : $ILV - Private Bete 4 starts
🔥Major Announcement
$FRONT - $SELF Rebranding
$ORN - $LUMIA Rebranding
$COMBO - ForgeHeroes Launching
$STG - Stargate V2
$AERO - Slipstream
$ALT - "MACH Alpha" Phase 2
$LSK - Klayr migration
$CHZ -$PEPPER Airdrop
* * *
💞Please Like + Retweet if you enjoy this April Calendar.
➬ Follow me @layerggofficial for more!
🔗Sharing is welcome, just a nod to the source would be appreciated.
Thanks for reading🫡
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