35 years into this game
when I look back, most of my work and decisions went nowhere
I owe my dream life to a handful of asymmetric bets:
- asking out the French exchange student in high school
- learning to code in 2009
- dropping out of uni to pursue my startup
- going all-in Bitcoin in March 2020
those four decisions shaped most of my life
I missed so many opportunities.
some that were served up on a silver platter.
but that's the beautiful thing about asymmetric bets - you only need one to completely change your trajectory
so how often are you actually looking for them?
not the default path.
not the safest options.
the ones with limited downside and massive upside
they're often hiding behind exaggerated downside
you think they're riskier than they are
you fear the judgement of pursuing them, or failing to succeed
nobody actually cares though
its your life. take swings.
the guy who strikes out is still closer to hitting a home run than the heckler in the bleachers
time speeds up after 35 years
it's made me more ruthless about where I allocate my time and capital.
forced me into a barbell strategy for life
I'm either squeezing the most I can out of this pre-ASI moment - real world maxxing somewhere beautiful with lovely people- or I'm allocating time/capital to the most asymmetric bets I can find.
zero mediocre middle
Young guns: You cannot mog with shortcuts
hammering your face, peptides, etc.
all nonsense
Mogging comes from true confidence.
And true confidence comes from results that were earned.
Results that prove to YOU that you are that guy without a shadow of a doubt
Women sniff it out immediately
Build your body, mind, and bank account in your 20s and you will naturally mog more than you could imagine in your 30s
@oudude33@Breedlove22 mogged way before peptides
Decades of proof of work built his bas
Peptides amplify. Now he's a giga mogger
Nerd on peptides with no proof of work is just a giga nerd
Young guns: You cannot mog with shortcuts
hammering your face, peptides, etc.
all nonsense
Mogging comes from true confidence.
And true confidence comes from results that were earned.
Results that prove to YOU that you are that guy without a shadow of a doubt
Women sniff it out immediately
Build your body, mind, and bank account in your 20s and you will naturally mog more than you could imagine in your 30s
It's 2032
You wake up next to your beautiful wife
Quick dive into the Aegean before pulling a doppio from the La Marzocco
The sun dries the salt water on your skin as you lay on the teak deck
You sip your espresso and you ask yourself... How did I get here?
What you do today in 2026 determines the answer
I always had big dreams.
I wanted to provide my family with a top class standard of living.
But I never wanted to work in an office.
I wanted control over my time.
I didn't want a boss.
And I wanted to be wealthy while I still had my peak health.
Many would call those unrealistic goals
And on the default path they definitely are.
But by setting those filters I quickly realized that the only way to make that happen was to
- own equity in my work (be the founder)
- apply maximum leverage (code, posting online, etc.)
- focus on multi-bagger investments
Ask and ye shall receive
Let yourself dream, create a vivid image of the life you want, and then ask if the path you're on gets you there
If not, switch to a path that gets you there
There's never been a better time to reinvent yourself
And there's never been more opportunity for those who seek it
Be grateful to past you for all the blessings you enjoy today
And be generous to future you by choosing a path that makes your time on this earth memorable
I'll be on that yacht 6 years from now.
Follow me and we'll do it together.
One asymmetric opportunity at a time.
The sovereign debt bear market continues
Since this post:
Bitcoin +274%
Gold +116%
US10Y 3.4% -> 5.3%
Some things are obvious before they happen, but they still take a long time to play out.
The world has tons of inertia
What takes a second for one person to understand, can take years for everyone to understand
But like a great man once said... "It's Just math"
The last time we had a long-term bear market in bonds was 1960-1981.
Gold went up ~1,800% during that period.
Today: Central banks artificially held rates at 0% for years. Countries are in debt to their eyeballs. Might be a good time to stack some hard money gold & #Bitcoin
35 years into this game
when I look back, most of my work and decisions went nowhere
I owe my dream life to a handful of asymmetric bets:
- asking out the French exchange student in high school
- learning to code in 2009
- dropping out of uni to pursue my startup
- going all-in Bitcoin in March 2020
those four decisions shaped most of my life
I missed so many opportunities.
some that were served up on a silver platter.
but that's the beautiful thing about asymmetric bets - you only need one to completely change your trajectory
so how often are you actually looking for them?
not the default path.
not the safest options.
the ones with limited downside and massive upside
they're often hiding behind exaggerated downside
you think they're riskier than they are
you fear the judgement of pursuing them, or failing to succeed
nobody actually cares though
its your life. take swings.
the guy who strikes out is still closer to hitting a home run than the heckler in the bleachers
time speeds up after 35 years
it's made me more ruthless about where I allocate my time and capital.
forced me into a barbell strategy for life
I'm either squeezing the most I can out of this pre-ASI moment - real world maxxing somewhere beautiful with lovely people- or I'm allocating time/capital to the most asymmetric bets I can find.
zero mediocre middle
You won't need as much wealth as you think.
But only if you understand this one idea:
Tech deflation is coming in hard and fast.
- Robots will be farming, manufacturing, etc.
- There are massive economic incentives to make energy abundant
- Super smart AIs will work around the clock to solve our remaining problems
I see a lot of smart people assuming this means that everything is going to plummet in price.
Even @elonmusk said he expects prices to fall on a recent podcast
He's right, but only if you price things in Gold or Bitcoin (or equities) - NOT the dollar.
The existing monetary system cannot allow prices to fall in dollar terms for a simple reason:
No one can service debts if prices start falling.
Imagine a business takes out a $1 million loan because they think they can sell $2 million worth of widgets and service the debt
But what happens if prices fall and they can only sell $500K worth of widgets?
They can never pay back that $1 million loan
Multiply that across the entire economy...
Banks collapse, savings go with it, lending stops, etc.
That will not be allowed to happen.
That's why even though we've made incredible tech advances, a Big Mac is 46x more expensive today than in the 1950's.
Our monetary system requires inflation and debasement of the currency unit
So as tech advances faster and faster there will be MORE debasement, not less.
Everyone must realize:
EVERYTHING WILL GET CHEAP IN GOLD AND BTC TERMS
BUT NOMINAL PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE DOLLAR DEBASES
ASSET PRICES WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE GOING PARABOLIC WHEN MEASURED IN DOLLARS
If you understand this, you just save in gold / BTC, invest in quality equities, and get wealthier in real terms over time as tech innovation goes exponential.
Explain this concept to your friends and family now.
It's the only way to stay ahead of what's already happening.
Note on the chart: Performance of BTC, gold, and US treasuries (priced in gold) since October '23 when treasury secretary Janet Yellen capitulated by quietly shifting more US debt issuance into short term t-Bills instead of long term treasuries. Why did she do that? Because the market was telling her there weren't enough buyers for long term US debt.
That was the signal that the jig was up. And that hard assets were the only rational move.
@Tanmedia seek out asymmetric opportunities
when you're putting effort into something... ask yourself:
"Does this even have the potential of getting me where I want to go?"
If no, then change your focus
- talk to many people in real life, no agenda just good vibes. Men and women. Amazing how many doors this opens.
- build discipline and get instant respect by getting fit from calisthenics / heavy sandbags
- build a following on X / Youtube / Insta (distribution)
- invest heavily in AI + robotics + Bitcoin (obvious future)
- found a company related to real world experiences, wellness, community, robotics, energy, investing, etc.
wouldn't focus purely on software at this point.
- move to the right place depending on what you're aiming for. SF for AI / robots, somewhere beautiful for IRL maxxing, etc.
Underlying is still the same as always...
- own equity in what you're working on
- buy quality assets
- build relationships with the right people
- create value for people at scale
- become a better version of yourself
- enjoy your limited time here
focus long term