JJD

xwz

[JJD @DuarteSatirico]

Main positions: $VKTX, $ABVX, $RVMD, $CYTK, $ARDX, $BBIO, $MDGL, $GPCR, $TLX, $INSM, $URGN, $SNDX

[Estátua de Sal @DeEstatua]

Nem agosto limpa as dúvidas: porque é que o PM protege Luís Neves desta maneira? Porquê? Ou seja, o que é que Luís Neves, ex-PJ, sabe sobre Luís Montenegro e Hugo Soares que nós não sabemos?
https://t.co/BbH2639AGW via @DeEstatua

[JJD @DuarteSatirico]

$LLY
https://t.co/yUs4iqr6Zu

[JJD @DuarteSatirico]

$BBIO ✅️

[dough @semodough]

$BBIO superior drug & why would any cardiologist still prescribe TAF after reading the data (Li et al, JACC 2026) from 4K+
patients taking tafamidis suggest 50% progress by 9 mos and 90% by 5 years suggestive
of steady pool of taf progressors.

[JJD @DuarteSatirico]

$ABBV
https://t.co/JicJNyOUk6

[JJD @DuarteSatirico]

$ABVX

[unemon @unemon1]

$ABVX ... $NVS new player (re-) entering IBD?

And yes, I am >90% they are looking at $ABVX .... will this result in a deal anytime soon?

[JJD @DuarteSatirico]

$ZEAL, Zealand Pharma could be a takeover target, according to Danske Bank
https://t.co/Q2QRiGBHdf

[Pharmdca @Pharmdca]

$VKTX $NVO Which pathway is most likely to win the mass market over time? Is $LLY’s triple‑agonist Retatrutide truly positioned for broad mass adoption in obesity, or will dual‑agonists GLP/GIP therapies—or even GLP‑1 monotherapy—prove to be the best long‑term mechanism for mass‑market dominance in the obesity sector?
My view is that dual agonists $VKTX VK2735 & $LLY tirzepatide have the strongest long‑term mass‑market potential in obesity, and I’ll outline the rationale in this thread.

In the end, it all comes down to safety differentiation. I covered the broader obesity landscape in my last several threads—this one digs into triple agonists versus dual agonists.

Retatrutide, a triple agonist of GLP/GIP & Glucagon, recently, provided update on weight loss and safety. Participants on 12 mg retatrutide lost 28.3% over 80 weeks. Lower doses at 4mg, 9mg showed weight loss of 19% and 25.9% respectively.
Those numbers are great. What about safety with triple agonists? Let's take a look at the safety numbers.

Retatrutide safety:
Look at the D/C rates as the doses were increased. On average, D/C rate at 4mg, 9mg and 12mg were 4.1%, 6.9% and 18.2% respectively.

Retatrutide vomiting rates spiked to 18-25% which is roughly double the rates of tirzepatide (dual agonist). Diarrhea rates jumped to 33% (way worse vs tirzepatide). Constipation rates on average of 25% and these one three times more vs tirzepatide.
See the picture below.

Ultimately, Retatrutide’s higher efficacy is offset by notable GI tolerability problems. Greater fat loss is clear, but sustained patient compliance is unlikely.

$VKTX VK2735 is similar to $LLY tirzepatide being a dual agonist; though, VK2735 is more potent and have a much longer half-life vs tirzepatide and $NVO drug.
Phase 2 VENTURE trial, VK2735 achieved up to 14.7% mean weight loss in just 13 weeks.

In my opinion, dual agonists will continue to dominate the market over the coming decade, offering strong weight loss with an acceptable safety profile. Right now, tirzepatide is the clear leader, and $VKTX is positioned to be the next major player to capture meaningful market share once approved.

[FierceBiotech @FierceBiotech]

Madrigal CEO Bill Sibold said the company is aiming to have a portfolio of MASH treatments, including options to address subpopulations. https://t.co/BflI63OjxE

[JJD @DuarteSatirico]

$ABVX ✅️

[unemon @unemon1]

$ABVX ... could an IBD expansion trough acquisition solve 25% solve 25% of 2031 Novartis problems?

[JJD @DuarteSatirico]

@WallStSai Mostly disagree — the CEO is a competitor, and his own trial's data (33% with >5% weight gain) undercuts the "limited threat" spin.
That, plus the plateau by weeks 24-36, is the strongest counter to his claim $IVA

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Bill Gates Held A Top Secret 'Q' Clearance For Seven Years - And The DOE Won't Say Why https://t.co/G4SbfwrgAJ

[JJD @DuarteSatirico]

@seedy19tron @aquascomd $NVS?? %

[unemon @unemon1]

$ABVX ... Novartis $NVS would be thankful to them for starting preparing for commercialization and hiring!

$NVS jobs post signal it's looking again at IBD - no sales force yet hence 🙏 $ABVX for hiring
$NVS looking for deals that generate revenue within 5y
$NVS Cosentyx patent cliff

[JJD @DuarteSatirico]

@biot_notes @A_May_MD All 3 largest PBMs now have t pill on standard formulary at parity with t injectable. ~80% of users are GLP-1 naive market expansion, not cannibalization.
IQVIA undercounts real volume (cash-pay/telehealth channels poorly captured), but hard-currency reported revenue doesn't lie.

[JJD @DuarteSatirico]

@biot_notes @A_May_MD NVO Wegovy pill isn't just script hype — it's real revenue beating consensus.
Q1'26: DKK 2,256M (~$355M) in sales, +95% vs consensus. Citi already projects $2.7B for the full year — multi-blockbuster status in launch year one (started Jan 5).
1/2

[JJD @DuarteSatirico]

$VKTX

[dough @semodough]

$VKTX interesting comment from Seedhouse “Specifically this trial is testing new
peak doses, novel titration schema, indeed various maintenance regimens,
and in our view will report weight loss numbers that look favorable vs.
retatrutide (not tirzepatide, retatrutide).👊

[BioPharm_the_Magnificent @crypto_biotech]

$ARDX

Linzess just hit top of guidance… and Ibsrela is still eating its lunch.

Category leader growing low-single digits while tenapanor is printing 50%+ growth.

That’s not “participating.” That’s stealing share.

Healthy market + Ibsrela taking bites out of Linzess = exactly the setup we want into Aug 6.

This is working.

TIME to mortgage your neighbor’s house and buy for the beat that’s coming.

[JJD @DuarteSatirico]

$VKTX

[Bioinvestor24 @bioinvestor24]

Since $VKTX CEO decides tied lips . Got update on my own , one site of 50 pts no DC due to vomit or other GI issues so far. 3 DCed due to compliance issues
Another site of 20 no DC due to GI
So DC due to GI will certainly match $LLY TZP by study end.
Many pts lost > 20%. Will get update on magnitude one day soon.
Let $NVO screw up on orals.

[JJD @DuarteSatirico]

@bioinvestor24 @WallStSai 3 mechanisms, full MASH spectrum coverage, cheap price given Inventiva's thin cash position. If Ph3 replicates Ph2, this stops being speculation and becomes obvious.
2/2

[JJD @DuarteSatirico]

@bioinvestor24 @WallStSai $NVO already has GLP-1 (obesity) + FGF21 via Akero (F4/cirrhosis). Missing piece: F2/F3.
$IVA's lanifibranor (oral PPAR) fits exactly there — Akero itself already flagged that positioning (GLP-1 + oral add-on).
1/2