Olivia
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@Duc435
Law graduate and PhD Student
Joined May 2014
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Wemby turnover game 1
Wemby turnover game 2
Wemby brick game 2.
Shot selection chaos in second half of game just now.
Timeouts in pocket.
Fox doesn't dribble out clock.
Don't guard OG on in bound.
Blow the biggest Finals lead ever.
The Spurs simply aren't ready to win.
US-Israel âRiftâ Over Iran: Nuclear Stakes in Classic Great-Power Theater for Plausible Deniability
This whole âTrump vs Netanyahuâ drama is pure geopolitical kabuki theater.
Public screaming matches, leaked phone calls with Trump calling Bibi âfucking crazy,â and spying scandals blown up overnight â all crafted to create daylight so Washington can wash its hands if things explode.
Yet the US and Israel remain locked arm-in-arm on Iran. https://t.co/TKubGaAtcN
Trump struts as the peacemaker â rebuking Netanyahu over Lebanon, urging restraint after Iranian missiles, acting like the only adult in the room.
Same script as Russia-Ukraine. But now Israel is striking Iran again, hammering targets and proxies.
Netanyahu nods politely, then proceeds anyway. Coincidence? Give me a break.
The âRogue Allyâ Game
Right on cue, the Pentagon raises Israelâs spying threat to âcritical,â citing eavesdropping on Iran negotiators. This isnât some organic breach â itâs pure psyop, designed to paint Israel as this uncontrollable rogue that even the mighty US canât rein in.
Israel denies it, as usual. How perfectly convenient. https://t.co/wVfqmt0Vcv
This isnât a real split. Itâs deliberate separation theater with sky-high stakes.
America plays the restrained diplomat pushing deals, while Israel ramps up pressure on Iranâs nuclear sites and proxies. No major strike happens without active US support â intelligence, logistics, airspace, the works.
But the public âriftâ gives perfect cover.
The plausible deniability is built exactly for this nightmare scenario: more than ever, the risk of Israel striking Iran with a nuclear bomb is very real.
Israel will claim it is existential â a last-ditch survival move against a regime that has sworn its destruction, backed by proxies closing in from all sides.
If that strike happens, Washington can shrug and say âThose guys went rogue. Not our doing.â No fingerprints, no full entanglement in the radioactive fallout.
The real danger here is serious. A nuclear strike â even a so-called âlimitedâ one on Iranian facilities â wouldnât stay contained. It risks immediate escalation, radiation spreading across the region, massive refugee crises, oil markets collapsing, and direct involvement from Russia, China, or others backing Iran.
This would shatter the post-WWII nuclear taboo and drag us into a dangerous new paradigm where nuclear weapons become thinkable again in regional conflicts.
The risk is real, and this theater is pure insurance against it. Trump gets to save face after US humiliation in the region â Israel takes the lead and takes the blame, while Washington shifts responsibility and walks away looking clean. Weâve seen this playbook before.
At the end of the day, the same pedo Epstein-connected elites pull the strings on both Israel and the USA. Shared goals stay unchanged: box in Iran, degrade proxies.
Tactical timing fights exist, but coordination holds. This âriftâ is just useful noise.
Beware of Western media â they are not informing us, they are leading us into what they want us to believe. Notice how they stayed almost completely mute on the Gaza genocide for months, then suddenly flood us with these Israel ârogueâ stories and Trump-Netanyahu kabuki drama?
Itâs all synchronized.
Donât be fooled. Donât be naive. Itâs calculated â leaks, spy alerts, âgoing rogueâ headlines all tuned for maximum deniability.
Good cop, bad cop. Same team.
Bien vu
How can people be expected to have faith in Trump if he wonât release the Epstein files?
Admiral Brad Cooper says the investigation into the U.S. airstrikes on Minab school is "complex".
I'd like to remind you: Triple tap U.S Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired on a busy school day. Many children were still alive after the first strike. As some tried to flee to another part of the school, they were targeted again - this time with teachers and parents too.
What's 'complicated' about such intentional evil. Not once but THREE missiles.
ISRAELI REPORTER: Iran terror regime controls Hormuz⊠Trump said⊠US would have been in danger⊠you don't believe Trump?
TUCKER: I don't believe TrumpâŠ. pause before using phrase terror regime since you live in a country that just MURDERED thousands of children in Gaza
A droite, le visage sĂ©pulcral, brutal, plein d'autosatisfaction, de l'homme des rĂ©seaux Epstein, dont le vote a Ă©tĂ© dopĂ© par des millions de dollars et, vraisemblablement, de la fraude, pour empĂȘcher la victoire de l'homme photographiĂ© Ă gauche, au visage plein de vie, pĂ©tillant d'intelligence en mĂȘme temps qu'Ă©puisĂ© par des semaines de lutte, un de ces hommes libres que John F. Kennedy aurait pu inclure dans des "Profiles in Courage".
La primaire du Kentucky est un avertissement pour tous les combattants de la libertĂ©. Les rĂ©seaux du Chaos sont le dos au mur mais encore trĂšs puissants et prĂȘts Ă tout pour rester au pouvoir. Ils viennent de le prouver en faisant battre Thomas Massie.
Au fur et à mesure que ces réseaux destructeurs des sociétés perdent le contrÎle du monde, ils vont durcir leur emprise sur les sociétés occidentales.
2027 risque d'ĂȘtre sinistre en France. Je pense que beaucoup de gens sincĂšres ne s'en rendent pas compte.
QUITE A YEAR FOR ISRAEL
-Buy TikTok & censor
-Buy CBS & censor
-Buy CNN & censor
-Buy Influencers
-Charlie Kirk gets killed
-TPUSA becomes more Israel
-Geo-Fence churches
-1000 pastors become Israel Ambassadors
-Replace MTG with Pro-Israel
-Replace Massie with Pro-Israel
Rep. Thomas Massie has been unseated by AIPACâs Ed Gallrein in what is now the most expensive House primary in U.S. history. #KY04
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âïžGood newsâŒïž Lindsay Graham is going to lose his SC seat after 23 yearsâŒïž
Thereâs no overstating how extraordinary this Atlantic article is, given the author and the outlet.
As a reminder Bob Kagan is:
- The co-founder of Project for the New American Century, probably the single most imperialist Think Tank in Washington (which is quite a feat)
- A man who spent his entire life advocating for American military interventions, especially in the Middle East, and a vocal advocate of the Iraq war. He started advocating for intervention in Iraq before 9/11, which speaks for itself...
- The husband of Victoria Nuland, an extremely hawkish former senior U.S. official (a key architect of U.S. policy in Ukraine, with the consequences we all witness today)
- The brother of Frederick Kagan, one of the key architects of the Iraq surge
In other words, we ainât exactly looking at some sort of anti-imperialist peacenik. This is quite literally the guy Dick Cheney called when he needed a pep talk.
And the man is writing in The Atlantic, the most reliably pro-war mainstream media outlet in the U.S. (also quite a feat).
So when HE writes that the U.S. âsuffered a total defeatâ in Iran that has no precedent in U.S. history and can âneither be repaired nor ignored,â itâs the functional equivalent of Ronald McDonald telling you the burgers arenât great: it means the burgers really, really aren't great.
Extraordinarily (and somewhat worryingly, for me), his arguments for why this is such a defeat are virtually the same as those I laid out in my article âThe First Multipolar Warâ last month (https://t.co/tbnOpdYqux).
Here they are đ
1) Vietnam/Afghanistan were survivable, this isn't
He agrees that this war - and the U.S. defeat - is fundamentally different in nature from previous U.S. interventions.
Where I wrote that the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan didnât change the equation much in terms of power dynamics (âin the grand scheme of things, the giant walked away with little more than a bruised egoâ), Kagan writes that âthe defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan were costly but did not do lasting damage to America's overall position in the world.â
And when I wrote that âitâs painfully obvious that the Iran war is of a qualitatively different natureâ from these, he writes that âdefeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character.â
Same point.
2) Iran will never relinquish Hormuz and uses it as selective leverage
When I wrote that Iran has turned âfreedom of navigationâ on its head by establishing âa permission-based regimeâ through the Strait of Hormuz, Kagan arrives at the same conclusion: âIran will be able not only to demand tolls for passage, but to limit transit to those nations with which it has good relations.â
He also agrees that âIran has no interest in returning to the status quo ante,â when I myself cited Iranâs parliament speaker Ghalibaf in my article, saying: âThe Strait of Hormuz situation wonât return to its pre-war status.â Same point and virtually the same words.
3) Gulf states will have to accommodate Iran
He agrees that most Gulf states will have no choice but to accommodate Iran, effectively making Iran into a, if not THE, dominant regional power.
Kagan writes âthe United States will have proved itself a paper tiger, forcing the Gulf and other Arab states to accommodate Iran.â
On my end, I wrote that âthe Gulf monarchies will eventually have to choose between two security propositions. One where they stay aligned with a distant superpower that [canât protect them]. The other proposition being: make peace with the regional power that just proved it can hit [them] whenever it wants.â Which is not much of a choiceâŠ
4) Military impossibility to reopen Hormuz
Kagan writes that âif the United States with its mighty Navy can't or won't open the strait, no coalition of forces with just a fraction of the Americans' capability will be able to, either.â
On my end, in my article I cited Germanyâs defense minister Boris Pistorius: âWhat does Trump expect a handful of European frigates to do that the powerful US Navy cannot?â
The exact same argument.
5) Global chain reaction
Kagan agrees that this is a global strategic failure that fundamentally changes the U.S.âs position in the world. As he puts it: âAmerica's once-dominant position in the Gulf is just the first of many casualties⊠America's allies in East Asia and Europe must wonder about American staying power in the event of future conflicts.â
Youâll have guessed it, I wrote essentially the same thing: âThink about what it says if youâre Saudi Arabia, quietly watching your American-built defenses fail to protect your own refineries. Or any European country now facing the worst energy shock since 1973, caused not by your enemy but by your ally, and realizing that said âally,â supposedly in charge of âprotectingâ you, couldnât even protect Israelâs most strategic sites - when itâs the country with which itâs joined at the hip. Iâm not even speaking about China or Russia who are seeing their worldview being validated on almost every axis simultaneously.â
6) Weapons stocks depleted, credibility shattered
Kagan: âjust a few weeks of war with a second-rank power have reduced American weapons stocks to perilously low levels, with no quick remedy in sight.â
Me: âAmericaâs most advanced weapons systems are much more vulnerable than previously thought - not theoretically, but in actual combat.â
Kagan: âAmerica's allies⊠must wonder about American staying power in the event of future conflicts.â
Me: âThe U.S. security guarantee has been empirically falsified in real time.â
-----------
So, yup, Bob Kagan and I agree on nearly everything. I need a shower đ€ą
Reassuringly though, we still differ on a few fundamental aspects.
First of all, arguably the most important one, the moral aspect. In typical neocon fashion, his article contains not a word about the human cost of this war - not the 165 schoolgirls, not the devastation inflicted on Iranians during 37 days of bombing, not the toll this war is taking on the entire world through its devastating economic consequences (the economic devastation on ordinary people worldwide is referenced only as a political problem for Trump). For him, this is purely a strategic chess problem, morality and people donât figure in his mental map.
For me, the moral bankruptcy of this war isn't separate from the strategic failure - it is the strategic failure. Much like Gaza can only be a failure because of its sheer abjectness.
Secondly, there is not an instant of reflection in the article on how we got there. Which is unsurprising because he personally, alongside his wife, his brother, and every co-signatory of every PNAC letter, spent a generation pushing for exactly this kind of confrontation. The man spend 30 years advocating for military dominance in the Middle East and hostility towards Iran, thereby forging them as an adversary and facilitating this very war that he now says has âcheckmatedâ America.
I know introspection has never been the neocon forte but at some point you have to stop setting houses on fire and then writing op-eds about how surprising the smoke is.
Last but not least, we differ on what should be done. This is the funniest part of Kaganâs article - showing that the man is decidedly beyond salvation. On one hand he calls this a âcheckmateâ by Iran, and a U.S. defeat that can âneither be repaired nor ignored,â yet an the other hand his solution for it is⊠surprise, surprise⊠a bigger war still!
He writes that whatâs to be done is âengage in a full-scale ground and naval war to remove the current Iranian regime, and then to occupy Iran until a new government can take hold.â
The arsonist's solution to the fire is a bigger fire ÂŻ\_(ă)_/ÂŻ
For my end, this was the conclusion of my previous article:
"There is almost a Greek tragedy quality to U.S. actions lately where every move taken to escape oneâs fate becomes the mechanism that delivers it. The U.S. went to war to reassert dominance - and proved it could no longer dominate. It demanded allies send warships - and revealed it had no real allies. It waged forty years of maximum pressure to break Iran before this moment came - and instead forged the very adversary now capable of meeting it. It started the war in part to have additional leverage over China - and handed the world the spectacle of begging China for help. The prophecy was multipolarity. Every American action to prevent it reveals it instead."
I wouldnât change a word. The only thing that's changed since I wrote it is that even the arsonists now smell the smoke.
Src for the Atlantic article: https://t.co/ItED9WS9Kn
![RnaudBertrand's tweet photo. Thereâs no overstating how extraordinary this Atlantic article is, given the author and the outlet.
As a reminder Bob Kagan is:
- The co-founder of Project for the New American Century, probably the single most imperialist Think Tank in Washington (which is quite a feat)
- A man who spent his entire life advocating for American military interventions, especially in the Middle East, and a vocal advocate of the Iraq war. He started advocating for intervention in Iraq before 9/11, which speaks for itself...
- The husband of Victoria Nuland, an extremely hawkish former senior U.S. official (a key architect of U.S. policy in Ukraine, with the consequences we all witness today)
- The brother of Frederick Kagan, one of the key architects of the Iraq surge
In other words, we ainât exactly looking at some sort of anti-imperialist peacenik. This is quite literally the guy Dick Cheney called when he needed a pep talk.
And the man is writing in The Atlantic, the most reliably pro-war mainstream media outlet in the U.S. (also quite a feat).
So when HE writes that the U.S. âsuffered a total defeatâ in Iran that has no precedent in U.S. history and can âneither be repaired nor ignored,â itâs the functional equivalent of Ronald McDonald telling you the burgers arenât great: it means the burgers really, really aren't great.
Extraordinarily (and somewhat worryingly, for me), his arguments for why this is such a defeat are virtually the same as those I laid out in my article âThe First Multipolar Warâ last month (https://t.co/tbnOpdYqux).
Here they are đ
1) Vietnam/Afghanistan were survivable, this isn't
He agrees that this war - and the U.S. defeat - is fundamentally different in nature from previous U.S. interventions.
Where I wrote that the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan didnât change the equation much in terms of power dynamics (âin the grand scheme of things, the giant walked away with little more than a bruised egoâ), Kagan writes that âthe defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan were costly but did not do lasting damage to America's overall position in the world.â
And when I wrote that âitâs painfully obvious that the Iran war is of a qualitatively different natureâ from these, he writes that âdefeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character.â
Same point.
2) Iran will never relinquish Hormuz and uses it as selective leverage
When I wrote that Iran has turned âfreedom of navigationâ on its head by establishing âa permission-based regimeâ through the Strait of Hormuz, Kagan arrives at the same conclusion: âIran will be able not only to demand tolls for passage, but to limit transit to those nations with which it has good relations.â
He also agrees that âIran has no interest in returning to the status quo ante,â when I myself cited Iranâs parliament speaker Ghalibaf in my article, saying: âThe Strait of Hormuz situation wonât return to its pre-war status.â Same point and virtually the same words.
3) Gulf states will have to accommodate Iran
He agrees that most Gulf states will have no choice but to accommodate Iran, effectively making Iran into a, if not THE, dominant regional power.
Kagan writes âthe United States will have proved itself a paper tiger, forcing the Gulf and other Arab states to accommodate Iran.â
On my end, I wrote that âthe Gulf monarchies will eventually have to choose between two security propositions. One where they stay aligned with a distant superpower that [canât protect them]. The other proposition being: make peace with the regional power that just proved it can hit [them] whenever it wants.â Which is not much of a choiceâŠ
4) Military impossibility to reopen Hormuz
Kagan writes that âif the United States with its mighty Navy can't or won't open the strait, no coalition of forces with just a fraction of the Americans' capability will be able to, either.â
On my end, in my article I cited Germanyâs defense minister Boris Pistorius: âWhat does Trump expect a handful of European frigates to do that the powerful US Navy cannot?â
The exact same argument.
5) Global chain reaction
Kagan agrees that this is a global strategic failure that fundamentally changes the U.S.âs position in the world. As he puts it: âAmerica's once-dominant position in the Gulf is just the first of many casualties⊠America's allies in East Asia and Europe must wonder about American staying power in the event of future conflicts.â
Youâll have guessed it, I wrote essentially the same thing: âThink about what it says if youâre Saudi Arabia, quietly watching your American-built defenses fail to protect your own refineries. Or any European country now facing the worst energy shock since 1973, caused not by your enemy but by your ally, and realizing that said âally,â supposedly in charge of âprotectingâ you, couldnât even protect Israelâs most strategic sites - when itâs the country with which itâs joined at the hip. Iâm not even speaking about China or Russia who are seeing their worldview being validated on almost every axis simultaneously.â
6) Weapons stocks depleted, credibility shattered
Kagan: âjust a few weeks of war with a second-rank power have reduced American weapons stocks to perilously low levels, with no quick remedy in sight.â
Me: âAmericaâs most advanced weapons systems are much more vulnerable than previously thought - not theoretically, but in actual combat.â
Kagan: âAmerica's allies⊠must wonder about American staying power in the event of future conflicts.â
Me: âThe U.S. security guarantee has been empirically falsified in real time.â
-----------
So, yup, Bob Kagan and I agree on nearly everything. I need a shower đ€ą
Reassuringly though, we still differ on a few fundamental aspects.
First of all, arguably the most important one, the moral aspect. In typical neocon fashion, his article contains not a word about the human cost of this war - not the 165 schoolgirls, not the devastation inflicted on Iranians during 37 days of bombing, not the toll this war is taking on the entire world through its devastating economic consequences (the economic devastation on ordinary people worldwide is referenced only as a political problem for Trump). For him, this is purely a strategic chess problem, morality and people donât figure in his mental map.
For me, the moral bankruptcy of this war isn't separate from the strategic failure - it is the strategic failure. Much like Gaza can only be a failure because of its sheer abjectness.
Secondly, there is not an instant of reflection in the article on how we got there. Which is unsurprising because he personally, alongside his wife, his brother, and every co-signatory of every PNAC letter, spent a generation pushing for exactly this kind of confrontation. The man spend 30 years advocating for military dominance in the Middle East and hostility towards Iran, thereby forging them as an adversary and facilitating this very war that he now says has âcheckmatedâ America.
I know introspection has never been the neocon forte but at some point you have to stop setting houses on fire and then writing op-eds about how surprising the smoke is.
Last but not least, we differ on what should be done. This is the funniest part of Kaganâs article - showing that the man is decidedly beyond salvation. On one hand he calls this a âcheckmateâ by Iran, and a U.S. defeat that can âneither be repaired nor ignored,â yet an the other hand his solution for it is⊠surprise, surprise⊠a bigger war still!
He writes that whatâs to be done is âengage in a full-scale ground and naval war to remove the current Iranian regime, and then to occupy Iran until a new government can take hold.â
The arsonist's solution to the fire is a bigger fire ÂŻ\_(ă)_/ÂŻ
For my end, this was the conclusion of my previous article:
"There is almost a Greek tragedy quality to U.S. actions lately where every move taken to escape oneâs fate becomes the mechanism that delivers it. The U.S. went to war to reassert dominance - and proved it could no longer dominate. It demanded allies send warships - and revealed it had no real allies. It waged forty years of maximum pressure to break Iran before this moment came - and instead forged the very adversary now capable of meeting it. It started the war in part to have additional leverage over China - and handed the world the spectacle of begging China for help. The prophecy was multipolarity. Every American action to prevent it reveals it instead."
I wouldnât change a word. The only thing that's changed since I wrote it is that even the arsonists now smell the smoke.
Src for the Atlantic article: https://t.co/ItED9WS9Kn](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HIBa-IQacAAr9O1.jpg)
@Megatron_ron Agreed to nuclear deal *gets bombed*
Agreed to 0% enrichment *gets bombed*
Agreed to âceasefireâ *gets bombed*
You cannot in good faith negotiate with the terrorist Zionist regimes of Israel and the US
Not to mention the continued genocides of Gaza and Lebanon
BREAKING:
đźđ·đșđž Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi releases an important statement following US strikes on Iran yesterday
âEvery time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure. Is it a crude pressure tactic? Or the result of a spoiler once again duping POTUS into another quagmire?
Whatever the causes, the outcome is the same: Iranians never bow to pressure and diplomacy is always the victim.
Also, the CIA is wrong. Our missile inventory and launcher capacity are not at 75% compared to February 28th. The correct figure is 120%.
As for our readiness to defend our people: 1,000%.â
Fixed this headline for you, Daily Telegraph
Zionist in English: "We are the victims."
Zionists in Hebrew:
The lack of news on Gaza isnât because the genocide is over.
Itâs because Israel slaughtered the journalists and Western media pretends thereâs a ceasefire.
This is a real tweet from the official White House account, in which the US President repeats the word WINNING (victory) for an hour after a defeat in the war with Iran.
What a crazy house!
We completed the investigation at Minab school, so Donald Trump doesn't have to.
Triple tap U.S Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired on a busy school day. Many children were still alive after the first strike. As some tried to flee, they were targeted again - this time with teachers and parents too.
This can only be described as evil crimes against children and humanity.
âThatâs right. Tell âem Donald.â
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