When you realise the liquidation event was the mid-cycle leverage flush and the drop to 60K was the mid-cycle spot capitulation flush and the deeper bleed on alts was their bear market bottom flush and it all happened whilst BTC was still up +300% from the cycle lows which aligned with the mid-cycle correction point because the whales made all the money from BTC the first half of the cycle and took their profits and nuked the market so alts die harder and the several-year alt holders finally cave in and sell to give the whales sufficient liquidity so they can buy the alts off them for dirt cheap with their BTC, Oil and stock market profits before they approve the clarity act and the mid-cycle correction turns into the usual cycle continuation where whale and institutional interest shifts to altcoins after forcing all hands out which breaks them out of a bear market so they can finally have their long overdue bull runs which will bring them up to parity with BTC for the final phase of the rally where everyone who capitulated will remain in denial and re-enter once they near the top and give the institutions the exit liquidity to dump everything and make even more money and then the really horrible narratives begin which takes us into an actual bear market dot com boom n bust style the worst we’ve ever seen and everyone who capitulated is left holding the bag at the top of the digital/AI/tech bubble as everything bleeds over a long duration of time and the real regulatory framework starts to come into play and the surviving coins fall down to just a handful as utility becomes a true measurement of valuations and then they change their mind about CBDC’s and implement them and then everything becomes tokenised and the new cycle eventually begins as the world begins to shift into a new era of digitalisation.
Whilst I remain convicted and believe many are not seeing the opportunity ahead, I would like to reiterate that this is definitely the gayest cycle of all time.
Precious metals going crazy. All stock market indexes at all time highs. Stocks hitting trillions of dollars in market capitalization. One man is worth half a trillion dollars. Others are worth $300 billion, $200 billion.
And people are pushing the super cycle theory. Same people who said that we are in a super cycle since 2017. When BTC crashed 80% twice since then. Bad analysts use this as an excuse to explain their failures. An asset dropping 80% isn’t a super cycle. It’s the end of a cycle. You’re following people who are very bad at TA that works and refuse to accept it, because they understand traditional TA that doesn’t work but sounds smart. They’ll explain technical factors to you and make you look like an idiot if you disagree with them, but somehow they failed to predict 80% BTC crashes twice. Hence super cycle. They are terrible at TA.
The hardest part of 2025 will be selling and realizing your profits.
You will get caught up thinking “it’s going to keep going higher”
We all go through it, especially if it’s your first cycle.
If your goal is to make $1 million this market cycle, keep in mind it’s much easier to make $200K and then nail 4 fifty percent swing trades in the next market cycle to make $1 million.