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[MasterPa @HanyangWang]

听说最近俄罗斯（又）有鼠疫了，各种号发了一堆。真诚向各位推荐《拯救东北 1910》，这是中文互联网里关���鼠疫最好的节目。

1910 年，沙俄发生鼠疫传入中国，顺着刚建好的中东铁路一路南下从东北直逼关内。伍连德医生国士无双，带领中日俄三国遏制住了第一场全球化的疫��。第一次封城、第一次用口罩，全部发生在这场疫情里。

2019 年，可达在奉贤家里想着 2020 年是 1910 年东北大鼠疫 110 周年，应该纪念一下。于是他在家里用几天就写好了十万字的稿子，但一想自己不是东北人，是不是应该找个东北人一起拍？于是他通过 Tim 找到了我，我又找了丰泽、轶轩、小宇、JT 等朋友。

转眼到了 2020，到了原计划里该出发的日子，另一场疫情来了。于是整个节目就有了现实意义。最后我们用了一年半的时间，从满洲里开始走遍中东铁路的每一处，拍完了这部纪录片。后来这支团队成为了今天的 FUNES 和梁柱之间。

当时我们完全没意识到这是多难做的一系��纪录片，也没有任何经验。但就是硬干，就是给做出来了。从此之后我坚信一句话：只要思想不滑坡，办法总比苦难多。

一直到今天我依然非常自豪于自己当年和朋友们一起拍了《拯救东北 1910》，这是真正的好内容。人活一世，应该多做这样的东西，才不枉活一世。尽兴、尽力的生活总是最好的。

[Jeffrey Kotyk @JeffreyKotyk]

Domestic wine is produced in China. Historically, it was known, but in most regions it was not a popular beverage. The grape is not indigenous to East Asia. The Chinese word for grape, pútáo 葡萄, is an ancient loanword perhaps from from Iranian *budāwa or *bādāwa ("wine") via Bactrian. Compare the Sino-Japanese reading of the Chinese: budō, Mid. Persian bādag, modern Persian باده • (bāda).

[Aatif Rashid @Aatif_Rashid]

I do wish people understood that the prose is everything. There is no story “beneath” the prose. Cartesian dualism does not exist for books. There is no distinct soul of a book that can be separated from the body its prose. The experience of reading the language IS the novel.

[Tong Bingxue 仝冰雪 @tongbingxue]

Dounan斗南, Asia’s largest flower market, Kunming, China.

[Ryan Leung 梁興盛, CFA @RYANHINGSHING]

These names $FORM, $AEHR, $KEYS, $TER, $ASX, and $AMKR—should have been on your investment radar. Next year is a big testing/packaging year.

I have no idea what $COHU does. should be related to test handlers. will look at it tmr

[Philo @Philo2022]

这里的做题家是指每一个被中式教育污染过的小孩，木讷，不过还有的是天生木讷

只要是混社会很难融入社会的，无法从社会上赚到工资以外的钱的，脑子里充满逻辑，还有老一辈脑子里只有儒家那一套思想钢印的，在这里都可以统称为做题家

他们/我们的特点就是，喜欢逻辑、喜欢理论、喜欢解释

但是社会化反而需要的根本不是这些逻辑、理论，因为那些做题家掌握的逻辑和社会上运行的逻辑，根本不是同一套逻辑

儒家思想就是驭民之术，为的就是打造大量顺民，社会越分层越有利于统治者稳固江山和地位

我的父母就是深受儒家思想毒害的人，标标准准没有完成社会化的顺民

当理论和现实冲突，做题家就会拒绝承认现实，这种思想钢印之深，导致做题家只会认为是社会错误，而不是自己的逻辑和理论错误。

“自��以来就是这种理论，怎么会有错误呢？”

偏偏就是这种自古以来，因为这种理论的目的，就是要自古以来驾驭顺民

社会运行的根本不是这套规则，自古以来就不是。

你会发现拒绝这套规则规训的人，反而会混得更加如鱼得水，不论是经济上还是情感上

做题家无法理解营销，认为营销就是花架子。

但是社会规则，从内到外的营销，从表到里的营销，都是自古以来的重中之重

做题家无法理解销售，认为销售工作就是 low，不如白领高大上

殊不知各行各业的顶尖人才，同时都是顶尖的销售，是顶尖的营销大师。他们从来不说自己正在销售，但是他们无时无刻不在销售

做题家发现现实和理论不一样，认为理论不会错，只想拒绝现实，认为错的是世界，认为这个世界出问题了

但是事实上，自古以来这个世界就是大家现在看到的这个样子，可以说是基��没有任何变化

做题家很痛苦，于是靠成为力工逃避现实，上班任劳任怨给老板上供，下班任劳任怨给家人孩子上供，还要给长辈上供

但是随着经济下行，做题家已经没能好好成为一个稳定的力工，于是加倍痛苦，开始认为社会有问题

但是做题家应该要清醒，你现在最需要的是，吐掉那些有毒的规则，知行合一知行合一，只要你还有那些思想钢印，那么你永远做不出不符合你想法的行为，永远无法逃离成为一个力工的命运

[168X @168X_Fortune]

AI Fundamental 仍强，但最舒���的主升段已经走过

3X Long Labubu @labubu_trader：接下来值得等的，不是继续追 AI Winner，而是 US10Y 稳定回落后的 Rotation

长端一旦见顶，资金可能转向 BTC，以及 KRE、IWM、RKT、XLU 这批被高利率压制最久的 Losers https://t.co/Sb0tbtFcB2

[Herman Jin @ShanghaoJin]

市场被7月惊吓之后，有点不太敢炒缺货 ie MLCC一直缺货涨，Murata/Taiyo也没大涨

As you known, Im not a fan of bottleneck trade 我也炒，但明白“可炒，不可投资”

相同部件纯靠涨价—就是周期股的定义。卡脖子三年，不代表股票能涨三年。相反，股价会在短期打满涨价缺货预期

一、在缺货预期出现后继续涨，你必须证明

1. 能进一步无序涨价
2. 或确定缺货周期更长
3. 产能可以“持续”显著提高，且能保持“持续”涨价（这本身就有矛盾—如果真可以就不是周期股了，是NV了）

即使3点中你认为有可能，跟买marginal benefit也太低

因为，会存在“变数”包括
——谣言谁谁又delay了—本质你没有“拿5年删IB”的信心（挑战）

——可能竞争与类似的rumors：投入研发、产能拼一个别人占领技术、产能高点的存量市场无异自杀。但很多零部件公司的绝对垄断过去就是建立在上述存量市场上的，当AI大需求浪潮席卷过来。后起之秀的试错成本就变得很低了—-看看CXMT

二、所以缺货trade最靠谱的是“先信”

买在无人问津处，等他缺货预期起来，连X都知道缺货了就跑。这样marginal benefit才值得

我不会跑在盈利最高，因为盈利周期和股价周期lag很大。更高赔率的是跑在预期落地。我承认上述1/2/3都很可能发生，但是鱼为有肥有瘦

三、切记是“炒”

与需求无关，别“炒”缺货还说需求，你都定义是瓶颈了

与盈利无关，缺货票盈利真爬坡就该跑了

要知道瓶颈是机会也是挑战

机会是让公司忽然莫名其妙赚居多钱；让本来要死的后发者，在提价能吃残羹剩饭也能活好、能站稳脚

挑战是因为你掐脖子，所有产业中优秀的人都会研究怎么“优化”使用你、有没有替代方案

周期大浪平息之后，必然一地鸡毛（所以没人敢拿5年）

四、“投资”什么

投资产品持续迭代

1. 由良率提高、产品迭代持续提高毛利的公司

2. 因为本身产品迭代在带动行业进步，供货商/客户设计是围绕你的R&D进步迭代的。由一圈公司形成生态，门槛不是自己而是产业

现在半导体中就一句话总结：你这个公司是不是在贡献token deflation，并且还能在这个过程中提毛利、提收入

这才是正向飞轮

ps 比较下LITE COHR这种就不是炒瓶颈，AXTI是（虽然他有些政策特殊性）

[Sophos @SophosWorld]

老兄，我不得不浇点冷水：你的这条推情绪色彩还是太浓了。

交易能不能长期成功，真正决定性的东西不是情绪、胆量、自由，甚至也不是某一次判断对不对，而是你有没有一套不依赖情绪、可以重复执行、可以统计验证的 process。

如果没有，那么 broken 只是时间问题。🧵

[Agustin Lebron @AgustinLebron3]

Excited to announce Options 101!

It's a site that provides free, no-ads, no-shill education on financial options (calls + puts).

The first course is one I'm now teaching this fall at Charles University in Prague. Lecture notes, videos, assignments.

https://t.co/rzTLlbxBoz

[Bridget Ayers @BridgetAyers]

Cornell University - Two Very Different Accounts
Civil Complaint vs. 2024 Sworn Statement Summary

I read through the 101-page civil complaint because I wanted to compare Jane Doe’s allegations in the lawsuit with the account Tompkins County DA Matthew Van Houten summarized from her initial six-page sworn statement to Cornell University Police in November 2024.

They are substantially different.

The lawsuit names Cornell University, Chi Phi’s local and national organizations, Tri-Delta organizations, fraternity leadership and advisors, Moonies Bar & Nightclub, and the seven individual students.

Doe alleges she became heavily intoxicated at the Tri-Delta house, that the house mother observed her condition but nevertheless accompanied her to Moonies, and that Moonies served her at least one alcoholic drink despite her being marked as under 21.

She alleges she had consumed approximately 10 drinks within three hours by the time she arrived at Chi Phi.

From there, however, I think the clearest way to understand the differences is side by side.

CIVIL COMPLAINT vs. 2024 SWORN-STATEMENT SUMMARY

Her intoxication upon arriving at Chi Phi

Civil complaint: She was severely intoxicated and already incapable of consenting.

2024 statement: She described herself as approximately 5 or 6 out of 10 intoxicated.

—

The initial threesome

Civil complaint: Male 1 proposed a threesome while she was incapable of consenting, and the sexual activity occurred without her consent.

2024 statement: She said she agreed because she was attracted to Male 1 and, in her “drunken curiosity,” thought Male 1 and Male 2 wanting a threesome might mean they were gay.

—

How the first threesome ended

Civil complaint: Male 1 became sleepy and wanted to take a nap.

2024 statement: She noticed Male 1 becoming sleepy and losing his erection and told Male 2 they needed to stop to make sure Male 1 was okay. Male 2 stopped.

She then described caring for Male 2 when he became nauseated and checking on Male 1 while he slept.

—

Ketamine, marijuana and alcohol

Civil complaint: She was pressured, plied, commanded, and instructed to consume ketamine, marijuana and additional alcohol.

2024 statement: She described being handed an unopened beer, later being asked whether she wanted more ketamine and then instructed to take more. She acknowledged taking ketamine multiple times.

That doesn't necessarily resolve whether pressure or coercion occurred, but the descriptions are notably different.

—

The proposed foursome

Civil complaint: I found no corresponding account of this exchange.

2024 statement: Male 1 woke up and wanted to join the sexual activity as a foursome. She said, “Hell No,” because she understood that would require anal sex.

It did not happen.

—

Males 4–7 enter

Civil complaint: She hid beneath the covers, felt unable to leave because her phone was across the room, and describes the additional men entering an increasingly coercive situation.

2024 statement: She also described hiding beneath the covers. Male 7 said something rude, apologized and grabbed her face and kissed her. She pushed him away.

The men then complimented her appearance. Male 4 asked whether they could do ketamine from her body.

She responded, “Sure.”

—

How the larger group encounter ended

Civil complaint: Males 2, 3 and 5–7 eventually left.

2024 statement: Male 3 returned with another fraternity member who told everyone to get out.

That outside intervention appears in both narratives, although the surrounding descriptions differ.

—

The final threesome with Males 1 and 4

Civil complaint: She was brought to another room, instructed to take additional ketamine, became completely incapacitated and alleges oral and vaginal sex was forced upon her until approximately 5:45 a.m., after which she lost consciousness.

2024 statement: She remembered snorting more ketamine and described herself as approximately 8 out of 10 intoxicated. Male 1 proposed another threesome because he wanted “redemption” for earlier in the night.

She initially asked Male 1, “What happened to just you and me?”

She couldn't remember how the sexual activity began but remembered vaginal and oral sex occurring. At approximately 5:45 a.m., she said she was tired and needed to turn in.

According to the statement summary, both men stopped the threesome at that point, as far as she could remember.

There are also important similarities

Both accounts contain conduct that Doe describes as unwanted.

She described Male 2 repeatedly reaching toward her vagina while they were kissing and her swatting his hand away.

She described Male 7 kissing her without permission and her pushing him away.

She also could not remember how the final threesome with Males 1 and 4 began.

I don't see an allegation that Males 5, 6 or 7 had intercourse with her. That matters when this is routinely described online as “seven men raped her for seven hours.”

Then there are the texts

Neither account, as presented here, includes the subsequent text exchange with Male 1 that has now been publicly reported.

In those messages, Doe reportedly said her memory was “super clouded,” acknowledged that everyone had been intoxicated, said “none of the sexual stuff was illegal,” said she enjoyed being with Male 1 and another man, and later suggested they smoke together again — just without the ketamine and the “extra 5 billion men.”

Male 1's messages matter too. He reportedly described his own memory as “kinda fuzzy” and expressed regret that they were too intoxicated to shut everything down and kick people out before it got “way out of hand.”

So which account is accurate?

Doe's complete six-page sworn statement isn't public. What has been released is the DA's summary of portions he considered legally significant. We don't have the complete two-day police interview or the entire investigative file. And we haven't heard the accounts of all seven men.

The civil complaint contains allegations, not findings of fact.

But there are material differences between the account attributed to Doe shortly after the incident and the allegations made in the civil complaint nearly two years later.

If the litigation proceeds, the sworn statement, complete campus police interview, contemporaneous text messages and other evidence could become extremely important, particularly if the defense argues that her later allegations materially differ from what she said closer in time to the events.

That's why I keep saying there is more to this story than the headline “seven men raped a woman for seven hours.”

The evidence we've seen so far tells a considerably more complicated story.

[Andrew Fleischman @ASFleischman]

So let's talk about the degrees of rape in New York, what is required for each, and why Jane Doe's statements to police make this an unappealing prosecution.

And to get ahead of this: things can be both hard to prosecute under existing law and morally wrong. /1

[Mightykeef @MightyKeef]

Bruh…yall don’t understand what I had to go through to get this weapon. I could legit write a trilogy novel series for the adventure. The quest purposely puts you in pvp zones and wild areas.

Having to find groups for dungeons was the easy part… until one of the dungeons was the Deadmines. A different continent in enemy territory. No mounts. Walking all the way. Getting killed, not by NPC, but real people patrolling the lands. Then going through ashenvale, meeting other undead pallies and partying up.

Having to come up with creative ways to bypass alliance patrol. We legit had to line of sight around trees and stay under water while ten alliance members were looking for us the entire trip through the woods. Shit was like a movie.

Then finally getting to Blackrock Dephs and praying on RNG loot from ELITE mobs two levels higher than you while other horde members are doing the same quest and alliance are ganking everyone.

The crazy interactions with other paladins, with other horde members, with enemy factions, with the world… I could do the same quest 100 times and never have the same thing happen. This is why World of Warcraft is so special man.

[Jeffrey Kotyk @JeffreyKotyk]

In Daoist astral magic, you can deceive a planet by making a figurine of yourself and dressing it in your clothes. During the night, you continually call out your name to it and then have someone reveal the image with torchlight. Whatever sort of baneful influence affecting you from the planet is transferred onto the figurine. This is very different from the Picatrix; it doesn't imagine the planets are gullible or suspectable to deceit. Picatrix partly inherited a Neoplatonic cosmology in which the planets are archons (rulers). Spirits (daimons) act as intermediaries between the celestial spheres and earth. The Chinese materials that were translated (apparently from Sogdian) treat the planetary gods in a more generally polytheistic way: they are not omniscient, and you can negotiate with them, but you can also evade or deceive them.

[EL @ELncyby]

@beefcubee 康奈尔学生其实还可以。同样的问题在哥大会得到更夸张的回应。

[Carl Hendrick @C_Hendrick]

“Dead cognition”: thinking that appears to belong to the user but was actually generated by AI, leaving the user with a distorted sense of their own thinking.
“Attribution laundering”: the process by which AI generated ideas or reasoning are subtly presented back to the user as though they came up with them.
https://t.co/m2M3R5R2hK

[白板报 @zhongwen_ai]

乘着塔勒布老师回复之东风，又上线了一个学习概率论的网站：https://t.co/yo5E7v4v7G

[白板报 @zhongwen_ai]

有人问 @nntaleb 老师，世上可有一门秘密科学连接其他所有学科，塔勒布老师答：概率论。顺着这条思路，让Gemini推荐了两本入门书。

- Feller 的《An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications》第一卷 。它不需要您具备高深的微积分或测度论知识，却能用极其精妙的例子（如硬币抛掷的随机游走、破产问题等）向您展示概率法则在现实世界中是如何运作的。

- 配合阅读 Ian Hacking 的《The Emergence of Probability》，您会对科学的本质产生全新的认知。

[龙泉毅 @JOJO85871961]

荒诞喜剧《不倒车》
现实虚无主义，这片太牛逼了，我以为爱死机更新了呢

[Jonathan Livingston @wenjie8964]

吴军华的切入点很刁钻，她说的是：不要把“异例厚遇”误读成战略转向，并且拿1959年艾森豪威尔亲自迎接赫鲁晓夫作类比，提醒日本读者：大国之间越危险，越可能需要高规格礼仪来压低紧张。
她把今天的美中定义成带有深度经济相互依赖的“冷和（cold peace）”，这比“G2时代已到来”或者“习近平终于拿下特朗普”都靠谱。紧接着，她用1962年古巴导弹危机对自己的类比加以限制：1959年的盛大欢迎并没有消除结构性竞争。因而今天红地毯、亲自接机、“二战盟友”这些东西可以非常重要，但重要的是关系管理，而不是竞争格局已经消失。
总之，吴军华提供了她自己的一套解释：双方的真正成果就是“买时间”。
美国为什么需要时间？贸易、通胀���伊朗、AI、供应链以及国内政治都需要一个不失控的中国关系；中国为什么需要时间？同样需要稳定外部环境，避免中美竞争突然跃迁成全面脱钩甚至安全危机。
所以“没有达成大交易”和“峰会成功”完全可以同时成立。
文章标题后半句也特别有意思：
「時間与えられた日本」——日本也被给予了时间。这比“日本被美国抛弃”“日本必须马上改变路线”高出一个层级。她没有说日本应该立刻倒向北京，也没有说高市路线已经失败，而是在说：美中暂时把冲突节奏放慢以后，日本获得了重新校准战略的窗口。