Erich Roehner

Buffalo born and raised n hopefully never leaving. Bills season ticket holder last 4 years n hopefully many more #keeptheralph

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@EckhartsLadder I think this is the best explanation I’ve seen the state of Star Wars today.

[Matt Jarbo @mjarbo]

STAR WARS is still massive.

It just does not feel like one audience anymore.

Nielsen says U.S. viewers watched more than 33 billion minutes of STAR WARS content in 2025. The movies still led overall viewing, followed by the live-action shows, then animation.

But the generational split is where it gets interesting.

Gen Alpha and Baby Boomers are watching THE MANDALORIAN. Gen Z is watching THE CLONE WARS. Millennials and Gen X are watching ANDOR.

That is impressive reach.

It is also probably part of the problem.

STAR WARS used to feel like one big myth everyone could enter from different places. Now it feels like a brand sliced into audience segments.

This show is for kids. This one is for adults. This one is for animation fans. This one is for prestige TV viewers. This one is for people who still want the original trilogy feeling.

That might work on Disney+.

But theatrically, it creates a harder problem.

After seven years of training audiences to watch STAR WARS at home, Disney now has to convince people that a STAR WARS movie is worth leaving the house for again.

That is why THE MANDALORIAN AND GROGU is such an interesting test.

It is not just a movie. It is Disney trying to turn a Disney+ audience back into a theatrical audience.

The franchise is reaching everyone.

But it may no longer feel like it belongs to everyone.

[Matt Jarbo @mjarbo]

STAR WARS is still massive.

It just does not feel like one audience anymore.

Nielsen says U.S. viewers watched more than 33 billion minutes of STAR WARS content in 2025. The movies still led overall viewing, followed by the live-action shows, then animation.

But the generational split is where it gets interesting.

Gen Alpha and Baby Boomers are watching THE MANDALORIAN. Gen Z is watching THE CLONE WARS. Millennials and Gen X are watching ANDOR.

That is impressive reach.

It is also probably part of the problem.

STAR WARS used to feel like one big myth everyone could enter from different places. Now it feels like a brand sliced into audience segments.

This show is for kids. This one is for adults. This one is for animation fans. This one is for prestige TV viewers. This one is for people who still want the original trilogy feeling.

That might work on Disney+.

But theatrically, it creates a harder problem.

After seven years of training audiences to watch STAR WARS at home, Disney now has to convince people that a STAR WARS movie is worth leaving the house for again.

That is why THE MANDALORIAN AND GROGU is such an interesting test.

It is not just a movie. It is Disney trying to turn a Disney+ audience back into a theatrical audience.

The franchise is reaching everyone.

But it may no longer feel like it belongs to everyone.

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@StarWarsMeg1 I’m excited but Star Wars fans and all the online hate is making me dislike Star Wars and lose all excitement. All the anti-sequel fans will make sure to find their way online and complain about this one too.

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@GameLoreDash I think a lot of people love how stsr wars made them feel but can’t get over that not all Star Wars is gonna mature with them. So they’re looking for that same feeling but they actually out grew the brand

[Matt Jarbo @mjarbo]

This whole conversation around The Mandalorian & Grogu is proof positive that Hollywood accounting is bullshit.

The Hollywood Reporter says people close to Disney believe the movie needs $500–600 million worldwide to be in the black.

Maybe that is true on Disney’s spreadsheet. But look at what we actually know.

The movie opened to $165 million worldwide over Memorial Day weekend.

California lists $166.4 million in spending tied to the production, while giving Disney a $21.7 million tax credit. That number does not even include the major talent deals for people like Pedro Pascal, Jon Favreau, Sigourney Weaver or the producers.

So yes, the movie cost more than the $165 million number being thrown around.

But after tax credits, the real cost is also lower than whatever the full production total was.

Then Disney gets to include marketing, distribution fees, theater splits and all of the other internal accounting that turns a $165 million opening weekend into, “Actually, we need $600 million before this makes money.”

Meanwhile, The Mandalorian has already generated more than $1 billion in merchandise sales, Grogu sold over 13 million toys in his first two years, and this movie is pushing another full wave of toys, LEGO sets, apparel, Disney+ interest and theme park tie-ins.

So what are we really measuring here?

Whether the movie itself shows a theatrical profit on Disney’s books?

Or whether Mando and Grogu continue to make Disney money across the entire company?

Because those are not the same thing.

A $500–600 million break-even point might be real according to Hollywood accounting.

But there is no way I believe Disney looks at a $165 million worldwide opening, $21 million in tax incentives, and a billion-dollar Grogu merchandise machine and thinks, “Well, I guess we are done with these characters.”

We are getting more Mando and Grogu.

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@ManaByte The way I see it. Star Wars live action is too expensive for tv, I think that’s why we see less and less of it on Disney+. But they will still want to continue to tell smaller stories, not every movie has to be an event. Some will become will be smaller stories

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@DeadmanBostonB So your only comeback is to go with something unrelated to what we were talking about. Makes sense. Kids love this movie, the general audience likes this movie and it’s out performing every expectation and all haters want to do is say well it’s not Andor so it can’t be good

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@DeadmanBostonB Andor has 0 chance of catching a young audience. This movie was intended to introduce mando to the general audience and an entry for kids. Everything I’ve seen including my own kids is working. My 14 year olds favorite character and now his favorite movie

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@stormfall33 Seen them all…this movie is still really good, and a lot of fun

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@MollieDamon @itsbellaxrose @starwars Now that I have actually seen it, I loved it btw, but I think the biggest development of this movie is the growth of Grogu. I don’t understand the no character development. It’s like watching your own child slowly grow up and become independent.

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@jasonkredline Funny, the packed theatre I was in last night all loved it. I think the many are going to out weigh the few here

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@YourAnonTruth1 @StephenKentX I saw all 3 prequels in theatres. I only remember the first one and me and my dad laughing are butts off with Jar Jar. I know that may revoke my fan card but it’s legit a core memory for me

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@StephenKentX Seeing this today but from what it sounds like, this could lead to a lot of kids intro into Star Wars. That could keep it alive for years to come. And I think that was a goal for this movie

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@StarWarsNewsNet And an A- cinemascore

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@THR Is this professional article or a Lucas film/disney hater? “Piss poor trailers” sounds very professional

[Tatooine Sons @TatooineSons]

My reaction to the extremes in thoughts on #TheMandalorianandGrogu online discourse:

In marketing you start with understanding….

10% of your market will hate anything you do

10% of your market will love anything you do

You eliminate both from your strategy

That means you focus on the 80% in the middle who are somewhere along that spectrum and try to engage them positively

The reactions to this movie perfectly illustrate this dynamic

There are those who hate it and we’re going to hate it no matter what it was

There are those who love it and rate it 10/10 and would have no matter what it was

Star Wars must learn to ignore both extremes

For Star Wars to move forward, it has to target the family who sat bedside me at the theater last night

They came in wearing Grogu shirts

They laughed and cheered and gasped every time Grogu did pretty much anything

They didn’t give a flying flip about the Creed or the ramifications of the moment when Din’s helmet was removed

But when X-Wings and Y-Wings and U-Wings showed up on screen, they cheered

They had no clue that Dave Filoni made a cameo wearing his trademark cowboy hat

They didn’t react for a second when the directors from the series showed up in Adelphi Base

But when three Hutts started brawling?

They laughed and cheered and clapped

That is the future audience of Star Wars

An audience found in balance

Not in extremes

Ignore the hate posts

Ignore the glaze posts

The Mandalorian and Grogu is a blast

It’s pulpy fun that families can take their kids to see over Memorial Day weekend

It isn’t a masterpiece

It doesn’t need to be

It needs to be a Flash Gordon serial for a new generation

This is the Way

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@psychfox I was 11 when Phantom Menace came out, went with my dad, and we LOVED Jar Jar! Still find him funny to this day.

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@djarinvrse Disney makes no money from a Disney plus show, that’s why it’s movie.

[Erich Roehner @ERoehner]

@TheRaeSide What’s the vibe? How are audiences receiving it?