BobbyAxer

traveler, former poker player, building

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

1/ In this analysis, we're exploring the duration of altcoin seasons and how altcoins typically perform against Ethereum. For this study, I've collected daily data for all coins listed on Binance futures from their day of listing. I then created a portfolio that was long on ETH and equally weighted shorts on all altcoins from the moment they were listed on Binance futures. Considering that there are approximately 150+ altcoins on Binance, if we were to invest $1,000 each in shorts and longs, our portfolio would consist of a $1,000 ETH long and a $16.66 short of each altcoin.

Below is a graph representing the performance of $1,000 invested using such a strategy. Generally, ETH seems to outperform altcoins. However, note that Binance typically lists coins after they've experienced some success and growth.

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

@Jeeeeezzus @Frenchie_ You can check out @buzzberg_ai - we extract trade ideas from all Reddit threads. If you have any other ideas in mind or want to see something else, let me know

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

@SoskaKyle Great post!
the best strategy rn is to raise cash by selling 1-2bln of Mstr. while mnav is 1.15 this is more profitable then selling BTC. He already did that in November. he should have started doing this over the past few weeks. The window of opportunities is closing

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

@thedefivillain @DonAlt Back at par? Saylor haven’t lowered the dividends yet, and he’ll definitely do it eventually

[Strategy @Strategy]

Strategy has acquired 10,645 BTC for ~$980.3 million at ~$92,098 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 24.9% YTD 2025. As of 12/14/2025, we hodl 671,268 $BTC acquired for ~$50.33 billion at ~$74,972 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRE
https://t.co/mHGqiabKtb

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

@gametheorizing I agree that the sellers are exhausted — mainly because Saylor has taken most of the supply off the market from them. Doesn’t that concern you? The MSTR premium could drop, and that might negatively affect BTC

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

@btc_overflow Judging by MSTR’s history, by the time the sale ends, the funds are already deployed

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

@btc_overflow Usually, pricing happens two days after the announcement of the offering, and purchases occur on the pricing day and for a few days after, as I understand it. What data do you have on this?

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

@dgt10011 @ryancohen What do you think will be GME inflows into Bitcoin this year?

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

USD0++ holders are faced with several potential decisions:
• The supply of USD0++ is 1.4 billion. To exit at the floor price, holders would need to give up 13% or $150 million.
• Exiting with token penalties also currently costs 13%( 5-6 months of future farming rewards). This effectively means no inflation for the protocol over the next six months.
• Alternatively, holders could wait four years and continue farming until the USD0++ token reaches a 1:1 parity.

For now, I think the optimal strategy for holders is to remain in the protocol, farm, and dump tokens. Eventually, when exit costs drop to just a few percent (e.g., when farming yields reach around 5% annually), it will become much cheaper and more reasonable to exit (around 0.95-0.96). With the upcoming unlocks and the inevitable 3 million tokens per day inflation, this scenario seems inevitable

[CBB @Cbb0fe]

Many institutionals and whales trapped in @usualmoney have reached out and are willing to take legal actions against them. If you wanna join, send me a DM as we are setting up a group right now.

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

@RunnerXBT I published a research about alts performance vs btc in the beginning of the year

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

https://t.co/YldzVADcjA

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

https://t.co/YldzVADcjA

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

@sunil_trades Thanks for the info, Sunil! Do you know, what’s the estimated amount of claims below 50k$?

[Sunil (FTX Creditor Champion) @sunil_trades]

FTX Distribution

False: Large accts. spreading false info, FTX distribution has started and/or start on 1st Oct etc and $16bn inflow
7th October: Plan hearing

Approx No.
Est. $5.5bn claims bought (50%) - not crypto investors - won't reinvest in crypto

Claims <$50k: Distribution end 24 possible?

Most claims >$50k:
Q125 /Q225: 70% to 100%+ of petition date value

if 100%: $5.5bn claim buyer; $5.5bn original holders

Remaining recovery over next 2-3 years

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

@simpelyfe What’s on the X/Y?

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

@TaikiMaeda2 Nope

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

@tmnxeq There is another launchpool project on Binance, DOGS, 1.8 billions FDUSD went there

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

@Dogetoshi These are yesterday’s outflows. Don’t you find the numbers surprisingly similar to yesterday’s ETHE outflows?

[Nate Geraci @NateGeraci]

Lawyers say unlikely SEC could bring case against Roaring Kitty…

“What he’s doing is exploiting a gap in the rules.”

Btw, had no idea Kitty was previously Chief Compliance Officer at an investment advisory firm. Hilarious.

via @aosipovich

[BobbyAxer @ES27oT]

@EricBalchunas Isn't the first-day trading volume for the BTC leverage ETF was $4.2 million?

https://t.co/M1XJYQm1tW

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

My best guess is we hear from the SEC around 4pm tomorrow. For spot btc they dropped it at 3:45pm, some others in past were slightly after 4pm. Anything poss tho