The contextual analytical stack matters. Here's an easy way to think about it:
BABIP alone tells us something is off.
FIP tells us to write it off.
Pitch specific data tells us whether the change in outcomes is random or real.
Stuff+ alongside SIERA gives us the most complete picture currently available at the pitcher evaluation level. SIERA tells us what ERA should be given the pitcher's actual outcomes, controlling for defense and luck. Stuff+ tells us whether the pitch arsenal can sustain and improve on those outcomes in the future. It is the closest predictive combination that is not at the mercy of needing a massive data set to draw indicators.
The primary takeaway is this: build evaluations from the inside out: pitch characteristics first, stuff metrics second, ERA estimators third.
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