Starship Mars 2026 Mission:
Reusable Chance: 0% (-8%)
Expendable Chance: 65% (+5%)
Commitment Level: 35% (new)
Updating Week 21 in the ongoing series tracking odds of at least one uncrewed Starship heading to Mars in the late-2026 (Oct-Dec) transfer window.
After Flight 12โs strong V3 debut I'm making a clear call: the reusable path no longer has enough runway for 2026. I'm retiring it for this window and shifting fully to the expendable fallback.
The ship performed well overall on heat shield and re-entry, and recent production signals are encouraging. Weโre lifting the expendable number because the V3 hardware wins are meaningful.
What's working in favor (+):
- Strong V3 ship performance on heat shield, re-entry and controlled splashdown
- Raptor 3 engines now flying and showing solid progress
- Elon recently indicated plans for around 10 Starships and half as many boosters by end of 2026 - good hardware capacity available
- Rapid iteration continues with new pad and V3 hardware
What's working against (-):
- Best launch date is only about five months away around 17 October 2026
- Some engine reliability work still needed after Flight 12 issues on both stages
- No recent public confirmation locking in a Mars manifest for this window
Milestones Update:
Passed: Starship V3 debut flight (Flight 12) - strong heat shield & ship re-entry
Failed/Delayed: Reusable path for 2026 (refueling & high reusability not feasible in time)
Next expected: Flight 13 + V3 engine performance review and any Mars hardware or manifest signals
Net change this week:
Reusable: -8% (retired for 2026)
Expendable: +5%
Commitment Level: 35% (starting point - Elon remains committed to Mars long-term and hasnโt said no, though the tight timeline to mid-October adds real pressure)
The reusable option is now retired for this window. Expendable gets a meaningful lift from the V3 ship wins and production capacity signals, though five months to the optimal launch date keeps things realistic.
Still believe we could see a Mars-bound ship this year, or has the calendar made 2028 the first realistic shot? ๐ค๐
With all the news about UFOs and UAPs. It's hard to try to link them to asteroid mining but here's my favorite UFO story That's all out there I'm not making anything up that I haven't read It's definitely an interesting read. But I will say asteroid mining will be needed for the materials needed for advanced technology to propel the human race through the Sol system and beyond. #uap #ufo #asteroidmining #space #science
@MattGialich@Alevetto07 I know everybody just assumes it's just the belt it will be decades before we start really going through the belt there are so many neos
I had an idea and it's been bugging me so I had to put it out to @KingSalman and @PIF_en as a green way of turning portions of Saudi Arabia very green using no electricity after construction is complete. The western part of your great country has the perfect terrain for this. This is a conceptual drawing for a sustainable solution to help Saudi Arabia turn green
The materials powering modern civilization are becoming more important every year.
Rare Earth Elements.
Lanthanides.
Platinum Group Metals.
Advanced industrial materials essential for energy, communications, aerospace, medicine, and future technologies.
But Earthโs ecosystems should not have to pay the price forever.
Forests, oceans, rivers, and natural landscapes are far more valuable than short-term extraction.
Thatโs why the future of mining may not be deeper on Earthโฆ
โbut farther into space.
Asteroids contain vast quantities of the materials humanity needs to continue advancing civilization without endlessly expanding industrial damage across our planet.
LEAVE NO TRACE, MINE IN SPACE.
Protect Earth.
Protect ecosystems.
Protect the only living world we know.
Mine the asteroids instead.
The future of industry does not have to mean sacrificing nature.
Humanity can grow beyond Earth while preserving the beauty of home.
#AsteroidMining #SpaceMining #LeaveNoTrace #RareEarthElements #Lanthanides #PGM #FutureIndustry #Sustainability #ExpoSol #NewSpace
@KiwiThinker@wholemars I mean it's not a NASCAR event you could take your time and do it slowly making sure it's a nice safe event I think people just think it's like the movies where everything is fast and crazy and chaotic and that's the opposite of what you want
@RethinkRFuture@googlenews That's why it's better to turn environmentalism into environmentalism capitalism make it profitable to not destroy the earth
The materials powering modern civilization are becoming more important every year.
Rare Earth Elements.
Lanthanides.
Platinum Group Metals.
Advanced industrial materials essential for energy, communications, aerospace, medicine, and future technologies.
But Earthโs ecosystems should not have to pay the price forever.
Forests, oceans, rivers, and natural landscapes are far more valuable than short-term extraction.
Thatโs why the future of mining may not be deeper on Earthโฆ
โbut farther into space.
Asteroids contain vast quantities of the materials humanity needs to continue advancing civilization without endlessly expanding industrial damage across our planet.
LEAVE NO TRACE, MINE IN SPACE.
Protect Earth.
Protect ecosystems.
Protect the only living world we know.
Mine the asteroids instead.
The future of industry does not have to mean sacrificing nature.
Humanity can grow beyond Earth while preserving the beauty of home.
#AsteroidMining #SpaceMining #LeaveNoTrace #RareEarthElements #Lanthanides #PGM #FutureIndustry #Sustainability #ExpoSol #NewSpace