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[DoubleClick @Eaglecel]

@SecScottBessent @POTUS Before the war started, the 10yr was at 3.9%, it's almost 90 basis points higher since, the war & oil are mostly the problems, POTUS wants lower rates, yet everything he's doing are contradictory, war, hawkish Fed pick, tariffs, and creating massive uncertainty. Its You...

[DoubleClick @Eaglecel]

@auto_moto_pl 🤣

[DoubleClick @Eaglecel]

@elerianm Easy fix, end the war, Japan surprise hike rates 50bp & unwind the yen carry trade thereby actually fixing their problems, markets tank, the Fed blast QE, oil & rates tank, markets rip. Feeling emboldened, Brics try to unseat the petrodollar, back to war after the elections.

[DoubleClick @Eaglecel]

@DanielTNiles As stated, oil is up!

[DoubleClick @Eaglecel]

@DanielTNiles If the oil majors aren’t buying into the Venezuela story, why should investors? I suspect oil markets reactions will be muted, will find out in 7 minutes.

[DoubleClick @Eaglecel]

@SecScottBessent @POTUS Stop intervening in Japan’s markets and let them deal with their own mess of a financial system. My rent is too damn high. I didn’t hire you to work for Japan, or Argentina or Iran, bail me out man, I am the one paying taxes in America.

[DoubleClick @Eaglecel]

@DanielTNiles Muted on Venezuela, possibly bullish because of reports of renewed fighting in SoH.

[DoubleClick @Eaglecel]

@zerohedge And Broadcom

[DoubleClick @Eaglecel]

@SecScottBessent @SenWarren This Admin was hired to end wars, cut fiscal waste, balance the budget & bring costs down. FAIL. Japan has a large cut that requires stitches, they keep putting bandages. Americans are actually struggling while leaders focus on Japan, Iran, tariffs, & spend like never before.

[DoubleClick @Eaglecel]

@chutneylife Markets understand that extraction said oil will require billions from US oil companies & take years, something they’re not currently interested in doing because they got burned before. This news was also expected thus priced in.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

So it begins.

Anyway, buy the Dip!

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

Everyone is talking about September seasonality.

But almost nobody is talking about what happens when September collides with a MIDTERM ELECTION YEAR.

2026 is a midterm year.

Here are the S&P 500 performance AFTER August in EVERY completed midterm year in the historical series:

1930: -35%
1934: -8%
1938: -11%
1942: -3%
1946: -19%
1950: -4%
1954: -3%
1958: -4%
1962: -8%
1966: -10%
1970: -4%
1974: -13%
1978: -14%
1982: -7%
1986: -9%
1990: -16%
1994: -6%
1998: -19%
2002: -17%
2006: -3%
2010: -4%
2014: -7.4%
2018: -19.8%
2022: -13.0%

Read that list again.

Every single completed midterm year in this dataset experienced a drawdown after August of minimum 3%.

And now we're heading into September 2026. Another midterm election year.

September already has a reputation for difficult market seasonality. The last 10 normal years, $SPY has been bearish about 67% of the time in September.

Now layer the midterm year pattern on top of it.

Does this guarantee the market moves lower?

Absolutely not.

But history doesn't have to predict the future to tell you when the odds deserve your attention.

I'm watching September through October VERY closely.

They fill the gap on $QQQ at 730, I will be picking $SPY puts up shortly after for the move back to 753 in September.

Save this post.

We'll revisit it before year end.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

— TJ

#SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #stockmarket

[Kristina Partsinevelos @KristinaParts]

Nvidia's blowout guide was supposed to re-light the AI trade. It's not holding, memory sold off, neoclouds faded, and $NVDA can't hold its levels, down ~4%.
When a stock gets great news, pops, then gives back, that's a warning sign for technicians: https://t.co/c484Ptp2pu

[DoubleClick @Eaglecel]

@stocktalkweekly Iran wouldn't end it, The US cannot walk away otherwise the petrodollar is done, the ladder is the most overlooked & least discussed by media for good reasons, walk away & The Yuan or bricks would create a new method to replace the petrodollar. This bigger than most realize.

[DoubleClick @Eaglecel]

@SecScottBessent @SenWarren Japan needs to hike rates, no one wants to take the medicine.Funds are taking on way too much risks with these leverages carry trades. Keep encouraging & perpetuating this nonsense with intervention?. Talk less, do more, permanent fixes for our kids, not bandaids that don't work!

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

Warsh sounds just like those 3 dissenters at the July FOMC.

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

“Don’t Fight the Fed.” Warsh at Jackson Hole: “Price stability is not self-executing… 65 months of sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the Central Bank.” Probability of rate hikes just went up going into mid-terms which historically see more than avg downside risk.

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

Warsh summary:

-Economy is strong (watching capex, loan growth, credit spreads)
-Labor market is fine (4.1% UE rate + stable claims)
-Inflation "concerning" (watching PCE breadth, commodity prices)

"hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive" - Hawkish

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Yes, September is historically the worst month of the year. Get ready to hear that a lot next week.

But things do pretty well when August is green and the year is off to a solid start (up between 10% and 17.5%).

In fact, the rest of year (final four months) lower only once and higher 10 out of 11 times.

[DoubleClick @Eaglecel]

@SecScottBessent Cost of living keeps going up for the AMERICAN people, highest diesel, interest rates, healthcare, housing etc. and these guys are talking about Iran. They're doing the complete opposite the promised on the campaign trail.