Early Retiree

Money is time
Find me here:

[Early Retiree @EarlyRetiree_SA]

Now gone for good. See you all over at https://t.co/ixxJ6fvOC6

[Early Retiree @EarlyRetiree_SA]

@Kritiker2024 "Laut Köhler gab es seit 1971 in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland mindestens 229 Morde, 2.173 Brandanschläge, 123 Sprengstoffanschläge, 174 bewaffnete Überfälle und 12 Entführungen aus rechtsextremen Motiven."
https://t.co/1WSJ2o7muU

[Early Retiree @EarlyRetiree_SA]

@Kritiker2024 Siehe auch

https://t.co/MxammZw4i7

[Early Retiree @EarlyRetiree_SA]

$SIRI did not sell of because of a "disappointing revenue guidance". It sold off because the strategy shift injects a lot of uncertainty into its forecast, while the stock looks a lot like a melting ice cube investment.

My full take:
https://t.co/yzPc49RLr7

[Thought Provoking Berserker ⚛️🦍🦅 @Provokethoughtz]

Just saying 💭🤔

[Vernon 🇮🇪 @SouthwardVernon]

Found a great write-up on $Siri in the @kejca newsletter this week. Well worth a read. https://t.co/OMVlSGBvBo

[Vatnik Soup @P_Kallioniemi]

When you order a sex doll from Temu

[Early Retiree @EarlyRetiree_SA]

My take on $SIRI 's Q3 earnings, the bear thesis, and how Sirius XM is trying to increase subscriber numbers again:

https://t.co/AP16x8lzty

[Jonathan Haidt @JonHaidt]

I'm glad to see that my 2022 Atlantic article, "Why the past 10 years of American life have been uniquely stupid," is back on the "most popular" list. As I said there, "It's going to get much worse" thanks to AI and ongoing structural stupidity:

https://t.co/dV4E2p2TkN

[Don Van Natta Jr. @DVNJr]

The greatest New Yorker cartoon of all time.

[Early Retiree @EarlyRetiree_SA]

What would a Trump economy look like? Fundamental analysis by Prof. Snyder:

[Timothy Snyder @TimothyDSnyder]

One of the few things that Trump and Vance are clearly campaigning on is lawlessness, breaking the rule of law and ignoring the constitution. Beyond the fundamental issue of the rule of law, Trump and Vance's announced plans spell economic disaster for the United States.

[Early Retiree @EarlyRetiree_SA]

Very useful also Umberto Eco's guidelines on how to identify fascists:
https://t.co/VCyKYcUb7N

[Timothy Snyder @TimothyDSnyder]

People are talking about fascism. I've heard from people who are baffled that we haven't been speaking of fascism more and earlier, and from people who want to know what it means – and from people who want me to explain why fascism is bad.
Please share!
https://t.co/82AUMA1QFz

[Samantha Rose Hill @Samantharhill]

Historians: He’s a fascist.
Political scientists: He’s a fascist.
His own aides: He’s a fascist.
The Washington Post: We don't take sides.

[Leah McElrath @leahmcelrath]

Holocaust survivor Irene Weiss:

“Man can turn into an animal in no time. All he needs is permission. As soon as permission is given from higher-ups, from the government, it accelerates.”

[Freya India @freyaindiaa]

We now have adults living in imaginary worlds. Adults imagining they are “socialising” when they haven’t left the house. Adults arguing with versions of people imagined in their heads. Adults ignoring their children to have fun with hallucinations.
https://t.co/6WvwrhCj1g

[Henry Gao @henrysgao]

In an attempt to save its economy, China published a draft Private Economy Promotion Law today.

Will it save the ailing Chinese economy?

Highly unlikely.

Yet, this Law is still very useful, in that it reveals the many problems plaguing China’s private economy.

[Early Retiree @EarlyRetiree_SA]

My take on the merger negotiations btw $CHTR & $LBRDK $LBRDB $LBRDA $LBRDP

Will the merger close? Where should LBRD* trade right now? Which is the impact on CHTR shares?

[Seeking Alpha @SeekingAlpha]

$LBRDK $LBRDA $LBRDB - The Charter And Liberty Broadband Merger Negotiation Explained. https://t.co/DohH0pAbQQ #business #investing #stockmarket

[Andrew Coye @andrewcoye]

$SIRI also highlighted a possible Goodwill/Intangible non-cash write-off in 3Q'24 related to the Liberty Merger.

How much could this be?

Liberty had $15.2 billion of Goodwill and $8.6 billion of FCC Licenses attributed to LSXM as of Jun'24:

Sirius XM "only" had $3.2 billion of Goodwill and ~$2.0 billion of FCC licenses (included in the $2.8 billion of Intangibles):

The difference between LSXM minus SIRI results in a net of ~$12 billion of Goodwill and $5.8 billion of FCC licenses on the LSXM balance sheet that could be at risk of impairment.

How these balances are accounted for in the merger, and how they are tested for impairment is beyond me, but just highlighting the key variables.

Any impairment would be non-cash and non-recurring, so it would not impact my evaluation of the economic (intrinsic) value of $SIRI.

Thoughts?
Insights?

[Early Retiree @EarlyRetiree_SA]

Why $SIRI continues to sell off despite solid fundamentals and one important news you may have missed:
https://t.co/ZvsF1Crr1O

[Early Retiree @EarlyRetiree_SA]

@andrewcoye $SIRI should generate ~$5.5B of FCF until 2028. $1.5B dividends, $1.5B debt reduction, $2.5B buybacks = 100m shares. 2028 FCF/share = $1800/250 (incl. some dilution from options) = $7.2
10x = stock triples