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1. YTD 2026, large-cap growth has faced a more challenging environment, as recent shifts in the market have slowed its
leadership. Opportunities in other areas have emerged—particularly value.
2. After a decade of underperformance, the conditions that hurt small/mid caps appear to be reversing. Adjusting allocations to include exposure to small & mid cap value may be a better position for long-term returns.
Get it here: https://t.co/9sGar32Rn2
• The top 10% of U.S. stocks represent one of the highest concentrations in market history
• Mid-cap representation within the Russell 1000 has fallen toward multi-decade lows
• The valuation spread between large caps and small caps is near historical extremes
Historically, periods of extreme concentration have not lasted forever.
The narrower leadership becomes, the more interesting the setup gets for a potential broadening cycle underneath the surface.
Markets rarely announce leadership shifts. They simply start rewarding different exposures.
There's a noticeable shift in Small Cap Value's performance over the different period ending 5/31/26. One data point doesn't make a trend, but recent performance suggests participation may be broadening.
#FinancialAnalysis #StockMarket #Data #investing
Weight of Semiconductors in the S&P 500 has been increasing...interestingly, yesterday (5/27) the weight of semis at 18.3% was the same as the combined weight of Energy, Healthcare, Utilities and Consumer Staples. This is the first time we've seen that happen looking back to 1990.
#Semiconductors #SP500 #MarketTrends #InvestmentInsights #TechStocks #Energy #Healthcare #Utilities #ConsumerStaples #FinancialAnalysis
If today’s opportunity is in cash flow + valuation + under-owned segments, where does that actually show up?
Miller Income Fund:
•~70% discount to S&P on price-to-cash-flow
•~60% equities in small & mid caps
•Focused on businesses generating and returning cash
This isn’t yield chasing.
It’s positioning where:
•Expectations are low
•Cash flows are real
•Fundamentals are improving
That’s where we think returns tend to be built.
#MillerIncomeFund #LMCLX #WealthBuilding
We’re focused less on where the market has worked, and more on where the setup is changing.
Large-cap tech free cash flow has declined from ~18% of sales in 2023 to <5% today – signaling more capital intensive businesses. Future returns will require strong execution to justify current valuations.
Meanwhile, small- and mid-cap equities are underrepresented, trading at discounts, and seeing improving earnings trends.
That divergence in expectations and fundamentals is where we see opportunity building.
More on this from Bill IV and Dan Lysik: https://t.co/tFTRRi4qhu
#MarketTrends #SmallCaps #MidCaps #TechValuation #EarningsGrowth #InvestmentStrategy #StockMarketInsights
Capital has a cost again. Real rates averaged ~0.6% from 2010–2020 →supported long-duration assets.
Today’s higher-rate environment → greater emphasis on current cash flow generation
At the same time:
● Large-cap margins: remain near historical highs
● Small-cap earnings: emerging from a multi-year contraction
Valuation spreads remain wide.
We’re focusing our attention where expectations are lower and improving.
Watch Replay: https://t.co/tFTRRi4qhu
#RealRates #MarketTrends #EarningsGrowth #ValuationSpreads #InvestmentStrategy #FinanceInsights
Examining the gap between price return and total return shows how dividends can be an important driver of long-term outcomes. In many cases, we can see that dividends aren't incremental. They can be a significant driver of compounding.
Ignoring them may mean underestimating long-term outcomes.
In a market where capital has a cost again, cash flow matters again.
#InvestmentStrategy #TotalReturn #CompoundingWealth #FinancialLiteracy #LongTermInvesting #MarketInsights #WealthBuilding
We’re seeing a setup in the market that rarely aligns: High Income + Low Valuation + Improving Fundamentals
Meanwhile:
Large caps = high expectations + low yield
Small/mid caps = low expectations + higher yield
That’s a disconnect.
And that’s the opportunity for future returns: Positioning today for what the market hasn’t fully priced yet.
#MarketDisconnect #FutureReturnPotential #wealthbuilding
Many portfolios are still built for the last cycle - when capital was free: Multiple expansion, Narrative-driven growth, Momentum.
Today:
Capital has a cost,
Cash flow matters,
Valuation matters.
The opportunity is in repositioning portfolios before leadership fully broadens.
From multiple expansion → buying cash flows at a discount
From price narratives → cash flow outcomes
From momentum → value creation
#PortfolioRepositioning #InvestmentStrategy #SmartInvesting
~80% of S&P 500 companies have paid a dividend in 2026.
The index yield is ~1.25%—near a 50-year low.
That’s not a lack of income. It’s where capital is concentrated.
→Large caps: lowest yield
→Small caps: highest yield
→Equal-weight S&P: ~50% more yield than cap-weighted
The market isn’t short on yield. It’s overweight the lowest-yielding segment.
If you’re looking for income—and future return potential—you have to look where the market isn’t.
#InvestmentStrategy #IncomeInvesting #EquityMarket #WealthBuilding
People get spooked by Bitcoin’s volatility. But volatility may be how markets price new technologies.
Think about it: If Bitcoin stopped being volatile tomorrow…The biggest opportunities would probably already be gone.
Long-term investors understand this.
#investing #millervalue #Bill4 #bitcoin #btc
Recent data reflects a moderation in growth expectations—the Atlanta Fed GDPNow dropped their model estimate for real GDP growth from ~3.1% for 1Q26 on Feb 20 to ~1.2% on Apr 21.
But.. valuations are moving back up:
S&P 500 forward P/E is back to ~22x
S&P CAPE has moved closer to ~40x
Slower growth. Higher multiples. That’s the disconnect.
When expectations stay elevated as fundamentals soften, risk tends to concentrate in the most crowded parts of the market.
Watch for more insights: https://t.co/tFTRRi4qhu
#GDP #EconomicGrowth #Valuations #SP500 #Investing #MarketTrends #StockMarket
Some investors focus on what companies are doing.
We focus on how investors are behaving. That’s where opportunity comes from.
At Miller Value Partners, we take a flexible approach to value investing.
Value isn’t static. It changes based on:
• behavior
• time horizon
• how markets process information
We focus on:
• Mispriced businesses
• Alignment between companies and shareholders
• Long-term outcomes
We share how we think—clearly and directly.
If you value independent thinking over consensus, follow us.
For deeper insights, subscribe here: https://t.co/RbTHDI5Osw
Outperforming the market means doing something different than the market. For many, that’s uncomfortable.
But every great investment looked strange at first.
Long-term investors consider this....Bitcoin checks a lot of boxes:
• Fixed supply
• Global liquidity
• Verifiable ownership
• No central authority
Volatile? Yes. Opportunity usually is.
#investing #millervalue #Bill4 #bitcoin #btc
One way to approach Bitcoin vs gold could be as a technology question.
Bitcoin is:
• More portable
• More verifiable
• Easier to audit
• Harder to confiscate
• Programmatically scarce
Gold was the best monetary tech for thousands of years.
Bitcoin might be the upgrade.
#investing #Bill4 #bitcoin #btc #markets #millervalue #gold
Small-cap value has outperformed Large Cap Growth by ~1400bps YTD through 4/15/26.
If leadership is changing, portfolio positioning matters.
More on what we’re seeing: https://t.co/1n1LjmRJc0
@billfour often reminds us that constraints limit the range and number of optimization solutions. The same is true in investing.
Excessive constraints—whether stylistic, structural, or conceptual—narrow the opportunity set and reduce the likelihood of finding true mispricings.
Flexibility expands the solution space. And in a complex, evolving market, expanding the solution space can be where the opportunity lies.
#Investing #Flexibility #Optimization #MarketStrategy #Mispricing #OpportunitySet
If growth is slowing and capital has a cost again, the playbook changes.
• Expensive growth becomes more fragile
• Cash flow and capital return matter more
• Small-cap value is already outperforming.
Here's more perspective from @billfour 👉https://t.co/P2NOgxZdQs