Bill Miller

logician. investor. #bitcoin

[Bill Miller @billfour]

Every generation has its story asset -- the thing that you never sell and it just keeps going up. For my grandparents, it was $GE. For my parents, it was $AMZN. For me, it's BTC. #bitcoin

[Bill Miller @billfour]

ppl saying bitcoin is down because @saylor sold $2.5mm worth is silly. the btc spot mkt does thousands of times that volume in true economic value transfer daily. "but confidence" is short-sighted, as a world in which MSTR can only buy is a world where BTC isn't doing its job.

[Bill Miller @billfour]

@TXMCtrades Fill everyone in

[Bill Miller @billfour]

“Hey Bill why is Bitcoin and crypto broadly so weak?” Polymarket odds of Clarity Act passage in 2026 have gone from 75% three weeks ago to 50/50 today.

[Bill Miller @billfour]

@nonhelix We won’t all agree with every position Coinbase takes, but a centralized entity committing huge resources to advocate for a permanent legal framework is a net positive.

[Bill Miller @billfour]

All these AI chatbots telling retail investors to buy AI stocks feels like a massive lawsuit brewing on the other side of the eventual hangover.

[Bill Miller @billfour]

Wow

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Adjusted for inflation, the SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOS will raise as much or more than the 300 internet and TMT IPOs did in 2000.
$SPCX #Anthropic #chatGPT #SpaceX #openai

[Bill Miller @billfour]

“I don’t think of it as ‘tipping’ but rather as ‘investing in my reputation.’” - @B3_MillerValue

[Bill Miller @billfour]

interesting debate here -- on the one hand: the practical implications and immediate costs of canceling taxes for the bottom 50% are compelling (@JeffBezos), on the other: the terminal value of monetizing "need" is civil collapse (@dgt10011). Whose side do you have?

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

A surprisingly (rare) bad take.

If half the population doesn't pay tax because "it's very meaningful to that person" while its only "3% of the total tax revenue" it means you've built a patronage state that monetizes suffrage/political legitimacy through fiscal non-participation. As Mises clearly articulated, once you establish any precedence that the state may exempt any classes of citizens from any contribution on moral grounds, you have dissolved the "principle of generality" which in fact makes taxation indistinguishable from theft

In other words, the democratic system will have been completely captured, thus completely failed.

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

Jeff Bezos on NYC spending:

"If we ran Amazon the way New York City runs their school system, packages would take 6 weeks to arrive, we would charge you a $100 delivery fee and when the package did finally arrive, it would have the wrong item in it."

[Bill Miller @billfour]

CBRS @ 100x revs and valuation up 7x in 9 months….”wahwahweewah” - Borat

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

I’m glad to see Morgan Stanley recommend 2-4% BTC allocation for their advisors.

It would be more authentic and credible if they directly acquired some Bitcoin on their own balance sheet.

@Bitwise continues to lead in the only way that matters, by example.

[Bill Miller @billfour]

All this talk of “dissent” at the Fed around interest rates appears to be coming from people who didn’t read the statement, which said the dissent was around whether to keep language with an easing bias. High dispersion here probably means rates are about right.

[Bill Miller @billfour]

@PrestonPysh Legendary body of work! Thanks for the grind and enjoy the best investment you can make.

[Bill Miller @billfour]

One thing that never goes out of style and which AI will never be able to replicate: human authenticity.

[Bill Miller @billfour]

love it when a company immediately releases a point-by-point rebuttal to misguided "short and distort" reports.

[Figure @Figure]

Yesterday, a short-seller released a number of allegations surrounding Figure. While we address them below, our focus hasn’t shifted. Today we’re back to executing our goal of building the next-generation of capital markets on blockchain rails.

1. Figure’s loans are not truly originated on the blockchain

Figure has a growth and margin profile that stands out materially amongst lenders. This is related to the differentiated technology and processes we use in our marketplace. As to the short-seller’s claim, even as they acknowledge, Figure has described in full its use of blockchain in its SEC filings.

The shortseller’s claim reflects a misunderstanding of how blockchain is integrated into the Figure loan lifecycle. While certain legal steps (particularly for HELOCs) require traditional documentation to comply with existing regulations, from the moment a loan is funded it is represented on blockchain and all subsequent ownership transfers and pledges are recorded and executed through our platform.

Participants in our ecosystem are contractually required to transact on blockchain, making it the operational system of record for loan ownership and activity, while traditional documents serve primarily as legal formalities. Our Digital Asset Registration Technology (DART), which is used by major Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Deutsche Bank and Jefferies, further automates lien tracking and updates based on blockchain transactions, improving transparency, reducing operational friction, and mitigating risks such as double-pledging. This hybrid structure reflects the realities of today’s legal framework while still delivering the core benefits of blockchain across the asset lifecycle.

2. The benefits of the blockchain are fabricated and overstated

Ultimately, the benefits of our technology and marketplace are borne out in the growth and margin profile demonstrated in our financial results. Our use of blockchain is focused on improving the infrastructure behind the loan lifecycle, including data consistency, ownership tracking, and capital markets execution. Blockchain enables greater transparency, reduces reconciliation friction, and supports more efficient transfers and servicing over time that carry tangible benefits.

3. Figure’s underwriting is risky and aggressive

The credit performance of loans in our marketplace reflects a borrower base with strong fundamentals, including an average FICO score of approximately 754, average income of ~$187,000, and a combined post loan-to-value ratio of around 62% (meaning 38% equity in the home at the most recent home value). We utilize a combination of automated tools, including Automated Valuation Models, alongside established credit, income, and collateral verification processes that are consistent with industry standards. While we focus on delivering a streamlined and efficient customer experience, this does not come at the expense of credit discipline, and we maintain robust controls designed to manage risk, prevent fraud, and ensure loan quality across our portfolio, as demonstrated by multiple years of loss rates approximately 1% or less.

4. Figure’s open-ended HELOC misleads borrowers and regulators

Our HELOC product is designed to comply with applicable Truth in Lending Act (TILA) and Regulation Z requirements for open-ended credit, and we provide clear disclosures to all borrowers regarding its terms and features. We actively promote the ability for borrowers to redraw funds as they repay their balance as a key benefit of our product, enabling access to additional liquidity without refinancing. Consistent with the regulatory definition of open-end credit, our HELOCs are structured as self-replenishing lines, allowing borrowers to repay and re-borrow principal without a new application or underwriting, regardless of the initial draw structure. We offer both fixed-rate and variable-rate options to meet different borrower preferences, including payment certainty and flexibility.

5. The performance of loans originated with Figure technology is deteriorating

Our recent financial statements show that the weighted average delinquency rate across approximately $4.6 billion of securitized assets currently outstanding is 0.80%, reflecting strong underlying credit quality across a broad portfolio of loans and contrasting with the selective, cherry-picked statistics presented by the short seller. Comparisons across securitizations must account for differences in vintage and seasoning, as loans that prepay or refinance exit the pool over time, leaving a higher concentration of remaining loans that may include a greater share of delinquencies.

6. Institutional investors are walking away from the platform

In March 2026 alone, over $1.15B of whole loan sales were executed on Figure’s marketplace. Earlier this month (April 2026), a BWIC (Bid Wanted In Competition, e.g. loan auction) was completed on Figure’s platform that resulted in a record low spread to the applicable risk-free rate, reflecting strong institutional investor demand for our assets.

7. Figure misrepresents its balance sheet usage and supports its own marketplace

Figure maintains a securitization shelf such that it manages the registration statements, SEC compliance and rating agency relationships associated with securitization activity of loans originated in its marketplace. Figure Connect participants originate on their own licenses and finance the origination with their balance sheets, and then sell those loans to third parties or into Figure's securitization shelf. The fact that Figure manages the securitization shelf does not mean that Figure is a buyer of loans on the Connect marketplace, it means that an asset management vehicle, which has raised third party funds via a bond offering, does so.

8. The Provenance blockchain is centralized and controlled by Figure

While Figure has been an active contributor to the ecosystem and holds approximately 25% of outstanding HASH tokens, the network is governed by token holders broadly, and key decisions are made through that governance framework. Ownership of tokens does not equate to unilateral control, and incentives across participants are aligned around maximizing the value and utility of the network. We have been transparent about our involvement and, in late 2025, took steps to further support the ecosystem by strengthening the Foundation with committed economic and engineering resources. These actions are intended to promote long-term stability, growth, and adoption of the network, rather than to centralize control.

9. Our Co-Founder has an undisclosed margin-loan arrangement against his FIGR shares

Mike Cagney previously had a secured loan against a portion of his shares, fully repaid shortly after the Figure IPO. As a result, any related pledge is no longer outstanding, and the characterization of an ongoing margin-loan-type arrangement is false.

10. Key insiders are selling stock after the IPO

After founding Figure in 2018 and working without any cash compensation for several years, Mike Cagney sold 1.5 million shares in connection with the IPO. Beyond that, executive sales have largely occurred pursuant to the standard practice of pre-established Rule 10b5-1 trading plans or in connection with the vesting of RSUs, and resulting sales to cover associated tax obligations. This is not discretionary selling tied to short-term views on the business.

[Bill Miller @billfour]

if Kevin Hassett actually believes he can shrink the Fed balance sheet without crashing the economy, @SecScottBessent should slap him upside his head

[John Bourscheid 🇺🇸 🚀 @bourscheid]

🚨BREAKING: Rumors are swirling that Scott Bessent got into a physical fistfight with Kevin Hassett this morning over economic policy disagreements.

[Negligible Capital @negligible_cap]

The name of the company… NewBird AI. It is a cutting-edge, AI-native cloud infrastructure firm out of- well, they used to be out of San Francisco making sneakers, but forget that, John- they are now awaiting imminent deployment of next-generation GPU compute clusters that have both massive enterprise and consumer applications. Now, right now, John, the stock trades on the Nasdaq at about the price of a cup of coffee. And by the way, John, our analysts indicate it could go a heck of a lot higher than that. And John- one more thing- they're up 160% just today

[Bill Miller @billfour]

@fideloper 🤣maybe $NKE's game plan is to announce they're moving into AI compute

[Bill Miller @billfour]

what is the bull case for $NKE? highly valued at 30x earnings, stagnant and tough to grow when you're the dominant brand in a staple category, terrible incremental returns on capital "but it's a great brand"...I'll take $CROX at 7.7x thanks

[Jim Cramer @jimcramer]

Nike CEO Elliott Hill buys $1 million in stock and Tim Cook, board member, buys $1.1 million...

[Bill Miller @billfour]

@Greenestreet23 me too...they might be looking out to infinity