With the annual benchmark revision, the recent historical drop in job growth now aligns more clearly to the slowdown in immigration, which began in 2024 and accelerated in 2025.
Revisions resolve puzzles!
Thrilled to share I’m joining Economist Niche! Labor market & education are intertwined, so I’m still here for all things labor.
Grateful to my Indeed Hiring Lab colleagues—5 amazing years!
Still taking interviews & speaking invites. Can’t wait to share more!
You: "It's 4:30 on CPI day. I've seen all the best inflation graphs by now..."
CEA: "I don't think so!"
Here's a great figure from BLS showing the share of the 181 strata (basic components in the index) that grew <2%. It's >60% and *back to pre-pandemic levels.*
CPI inflation came in softer than expected in June, with headline prices falling 0.1% & core prices rising 0.1%. After some stronger-than-expected readings earlier this year, disinflation seen over the second half of 2023 appears to be back on track. 1/
I'm excited to announce that last week I started a detail as a Policy Economist at @WhiteHouseCEA . I'm excited and humbled to serve at CEA and am grateful to my @CommerceGov colleagues for facilitating this detail opportunity!
This Memorial Day — amid the parades and celebrations — we pause to reflect on the heroic actions of the service members who made the ultimate sacrifice. Let us find inspiration in their selflessness and be reminded that freedom comes at a great cost.
Am in @CommerceGov’s public meeting on “Request for Information: AI-Ready Open Government Data Assets” & I don’t think I have ever been more impressed with a federal agency. They are moving SO proactively #opendata#opengov
So excited to announce that @natasharsarin and @dannyyagan and I are launching @the_budget_lab at Yale Law School. Budget scoring is an incredibly important part of the policy process and our hope is to bring a new perspective, with a focus on innovation and transparency. 1/
Released today is Census BTOS data and working paper on AI use by businesses in real time (September 2023-February 2024). Working paper can be found at:
https://t.co/hLnKLN8DrS
AI use for business purposes remains relatively small but growing. Higher at larger businesses:
@lehnerjw@ernietedeschi That's an example of why the data is designated experimental. Since there is no reported county-level RPP data, my methodology is an exercise in allocating published RPP data from BEA to a county while also incorporating micro-data (all at once!). So there will be some quirks!
I have a new working paper out! Using public data, I estimate experimental county-level regional price parities (RPP) for all counties in the United States.
https://t.co/zRgTwA85w6
1/
Hugely useful work for regional economic analysis. Cost of living varies a lot within some metros — and across non-metro counties. This paper fills in big gaps in local data. Kudos!