Ed Vul

Opinions my own, but I wish they were yours.

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

@deanwball I deny the premise that current AIs are on a trajectory to become a species. I think they will continue to function as “tools” with no goals other than those given by the operator.

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

@tszzl From Dr Seuss’s less popular sequel that explored the frailties of the human condition.

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

@gershbrain https://t.co/oIXnQJkrBT

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

@TheZvi @robertwiblin Incentive = reward gradient? So incentive gradient is 2nd derivative of reward? Useful for evaluating how treacherously steep is the way out of your local maximum.

[Lindsey Powell @_lindseypowell]

Reminder to apply for a job at UCSD! (social psych: https://t.co/LrVqZkACW4, computational social science TT teaching prof: https://t.co/ctAMGqPPcq). This is our January:

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

Are you excited to teach computational methods to social scientists? Come join us: UCSD is hiring an open-rank teaching professor in computational social science:

https://t.co/K3w8v2qIUV

Spread the word!

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

Are you a Computational Social Scientist looking for a teaching position? We are hiring an open-rank (tenured/tenure-track) Teaching professor in CSS @UCSanDiego.
Assistant level application: https://t.co/osVZK4ZMIU
Associate/Full level application: https://t.co/SbZ4cATghd

[Kevin Smith @realkevinsmith]

🚨 New paper alert! 🚨 In work with @KelseyRAllen & Josh Tenenbaum, we study what makes people excellent tool users. We propose this requires combining physical simulation with rapid trial-and-error learning. (1/8)

Website: https://t.co/yaa2IzfNW3
Paper: https://t.co/vYo6DOXZ7x

[Michael C. Frank @mcxfrank]

OK, so https://t.co/K81JoFZ5et turns out to be the best part of the cogsci poster sessions! I actually "ran into" a friend while wandering between posters. Highly recommend that folks do their poster Q&A on the platform, @cogsci_soc (put poster ID on your name)! #CogSci2020

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

@spiantado @timothycbates @samuelmehr @GRich_Cinci @AndrewRAConway @CantlonLab Would the following be a fair summary: National heritability studies find that environment explains a low % of variance. In international comparisons there is a lot more variability in the environment, so the % attributable to the environment internationally is much higher?

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

@spiantado @timothycbates @samuelmehr @GRich_Cinci @AndrewRAConway @CantlonLab I'm confused. There is some "general performance factor" that is quite heritable, stable over the lifetime, and predictive of life outcomes. Is the question here what to call it? Or the extent to which it is influenced by environmental factors?

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

@anidr0id @ArvidKappas Can someone help me figure this out: Would a measurement of someone's height also fail their "invariance" criterion?

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

@kausmickey @hpashler Just two doublings. 0.1% -> 15% is much further.

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

@stefanswartpet @MaxCRoser @robinhanson FWIW, here is my attempt to put an upper bound and estimate on IFR as a function of age: https://t.co/oUwj5ndBuv

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

@NAChristakis Are swab tests going to have sensitivity for the same duration post infection for asymptomatic individuals as symptomatic ones?

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

@NAChristakis @Yale @nytopinion @DrDavidKatz Is there room for a more sustainable policy of very stringent isolation for those at high risk, while letting the young provide essential goods and services?

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

@JeffRouder @JuliaHaaf Maybe a strategy for a proof. Consider the rank order permutations: yyxx, yxyx, xyyx, xyxy, yxxy, xxyy. Each equally likely, and each sum(x>y) {2, 1, 0} is represented equally frequently in the permutations. yielding a uniform distribution.

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

@gershbrain mp3 compression. Similar idea using CSF for video here: https://t.co/P6lSLups3b Volume sliders respect Weber's law and are logarithmic.

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

@mcxfrank It's the original Rumsfeld uncertainty: https://t.co/xLTOJES9Jh

[Ed Vul @EdVul]

@mcxfrank Yes, that sounds exactly right. Although put this way, it sounds like I have to reconcile my instinct here with my aversion to other invocations of Knightian uncertainty.