Look at that $BOIL monthly volume for Oct. Retail piling in too early on the AI power trade. Going to get crushed. NATGAS may benefit from an electricity shortage, but not yet.
Bulls thinking electricity is all used up in the coming months. #natgas futures curve, $NVDA melt up, weather and storage levels say this current price is way too high. Going to crash to at least the 200 day SMA
#natgas extremely overpriced here. A close parallel is 2017-2018 when storage drifted significantly below 5yr avg. And ignore 21-22, that was black swan pandemic and war pricing. Reversion to mean coming very soon, back to $3
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It took a global pandemic recovery and a Russian war to break through the long term trend line in '21-'22. Bulls tried hard here, but there's no substance to back this run up. $2.40 will probably come pretty quick.
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Is the current #natgas storage/demand situation worse than a pandemic with businesses shut down indefinitely worldwide? It's hard to imagine that it is.
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Top-#natgas since 2015 inverse chart. Bottom-storage level to 5yr avg % delta. From this perspective, sell off is way overdone. 2016 saw +54% storage
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#natgas storage levels now similar to the 2015-16 glut. Except then, exports were just starting giving a bullish catalyst. Now exact opposite with export bans looming. Combined with little to no cold weather on the horizon, there's still room to fall
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34 years of #natgas prices. Not much time at or below the green line. But it's there now with no real catalyst in sight to push it higher. Could be going to 1990's levels.
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When you step back and look at the long term pattern (20Y weekly), $1.20 doesn't seem that outrageous. So many forces pushing down for the foreseeable future, with few pushing up.
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A push through the green channel into the white channel is bullish. Next stop $3.35 then maybe $3.65. Drifting back into green channel then maybe $3 again. But that gap is a magnet I think.
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