EdgeTooEarly

Real trading psychology & brutal lessons.
Missed trades, blown accounts, 3am order books.
Prediction markets | Kalshi | Raw stories.
Not financial advi☕🔥 📊

[EdgeTooEarly @EdgeTooEarly]

Can anyone see this? Seems like no one can see it.

[EdgeTooEarly @EdgeTooEarly]

Trump called FIFA to get his striker back on the pitch. He won. Then the US lost 4-1 anyway. 😐

Here's the whole story in one line: the most powerful man in the world spent political capital to overturn a red card — and it changed nothing.

Folarin Balogun got a straight red against Bosnia. Automatic ban. He'd miss Belgium. Trump picked up the phone, called Infantino, the White House built a legal case, and FIFA did something it hadn't done in 56 years: suspended the ban. Balogun played. The whole world watched to see if the intervention would matter.

Belgium won 4-1. 🎯

This is the part that fascinates me. Belgium was the favorite going in. The market didn't care who the US had available. It priced Belgium to win comfortably — and Belgium won comfortably. One extra striker didn't move the outcome, because the outcome was never about that striker. It was about two teams, and one was just better.

You can pull every string. You can call the governing body. You can bend a 56-year-old rule. You can put your guy back on the field. And the scoreboard still doesn't care. The result was priced correctly before the first whistle, and no phone call from any capital on earth was going to reprice it.

That's the thing people miss about outcomes that are actually settled. Intervention feels powerful. It generates headlines. It changes the roster. But it doesn't change the probability. Belgium was better. The market knew. Balogun playing or not was noise around a signal that was already locked.

Power can change the inputs. It can't change the math. Ask the scoreboard. 🥸

Was the red-card fight worth it for a 4-1 loss? Drop your take. 🍿

[EdgeTooEarly @EdgeTooEarly]

Trump called FIFA to get his striker back on the pitch. He won. Then the US lost 4-1 anyway. 😐

Here's the whole story in one line: the most powerful man in the world spent political capital to overturn a red card — and it changed nothing.

Folarin Balogun got a straight red against Bosnia. Automatic ban. He'd miss Belgium. Trump picked up the phone, called Infantino, the White House built a legal case, and FIFA did something it hadn't done in 56 years: suspended the ban. Balogun played. The whole world watched to see if the intervention would matter.

Belgium won 4-1. 🎯

This is the part that fascinates me. Belgium was the favorite going in. The market didn't care who the US had available. It priced Belgium to win comfortably — and Belgium won comfortably. One extra striker didn't move the outcome, because the outcome was never about that striker. It was about two teams, and one was just better.

You can pull every string. You can call the governing body. You can bend a 56-year-old rule. You can put your guy back on the field. And the scoreboard still doesn't care. The result was priced correctly before the first whistle, and no phone call from any capital on earth was going to reprice it.

That's the thing people miss about outcomes that are actually settled. Intervention feels powerful. It generates headlines. It changes the roster. But it doesn't change the probability. Belgium was better. The market knew. Balogun playing or not was noise around a signal that was already locked.

Power can change the inputs. It can't change the math. Ask the scoreboard. 🥸

Was the red-card fight worth it for a 4-1 loss? Drop your take. 🍿

[PMDailyDispatch @PMDailyDispatch]

📊 Sunday. Prediction Markets — July 6, 2026

⚽ Brazil 1-2 Norway · R16

Polymarket had Brazil at 78% to advance. Norway was at 22%.

Haaland: 79th minute header. 90th minute low drive. 2 goals.
Neymar: stoppage-time penalty. Scored. Not enough. Brazil out.

First R16 exit for Brazil since 1990.
Norway to first ever World Cup quarterfinal.
Neymar's last World Cup match ends in the Round of 16.

🔹 Golden Boot: Haaland 7G, Mbappé 7G, Messi 7G — 3-way tie. Mbappé still favorite at 51¢ on Polymarket. Haaland surging from 2¢ pre-match to 8¢.

🔹 Other R16 results: France 1-0 Paraguay (Mbappé pen). Morocco 3-0 Canada. Quarterfinal: France vs Morocco on Friday.

🔹 Kalshi June volume: $31.5B. First month surpassing Polymarket ($13.3B). Combined $44.8B — both records. CEO says no IPO in 2026. Seeking $40B valuation.

🔹 US-Iran: Khamenei funeral concluded. Peace talks by July 31 at 66.5%. Talks by July 10 at 1.8%. Hormuz normalization: 24.5% Yes.

📅 Tomorrow: England-Mexico R16 result → Norway's quarterfinal opponent odds. Updated Golden Boot prices after Argentina plays. Same time. 8am ET.

— PM Daily Dispatch.
#GoldenBoot #WorldCup #PredictionMarket

[EdgeTooEarly @EdgeTooEarly]

@PMDailyDispatch Brazil had 62% possession and still got Haaland'd in the coldest way possible. Markets were 78% sure... turns out they were 22% correct.
First dispatch and you're already cooking up upsets Next one when?🤣

[EdgeTooEarly @EdgeTooEarly]

Haaland is the coldest player on the planet right now Best in the world?.🥶🥲

[EdgeTooEarly @EdgeTooEarly]

Brazil just had their earliest World Cup exit since 1990. A Norwegian with an ice-cold stare sent them home. 🥶

Erling Haaland. Two goals. 71st minute. 79th minute. Brazil 1-2 Norway. Five-time champions. Out. In the Round of 16. Against a country that had never — never — reached a World Cup quarter-final before this tournament.

Haaland didn't celebrate. He stood there. Arms crossed. Blank face. While Brazil's players collapsed on the pitch. The celebration went viral for what it didn't do. No screaming. No sliding. No shirt off. Just a man who expected to win. 😐

Here's the thing that gets me. Brazil had 62% possession. More shots. More corners. More of everything except goals. Haaland touched the ball maybe fifteen times all game. Two of them ended up in the net. Efficiency isn't pretty. Efficiency is cold. And Haaland is the coldest player at this World Cup.

He's now tied with Messi and Mbappé at 7 goals. Messi is 39. Mbappé is 25. Haaland is 22. The Golden Boot race is three generations fighting for the same trophy. The old king. The prince. And the terminator. 🎯

Norway vs England next. Haaland vs Bellingham. The two best players in the world right now. One of them is going home. The other is one step closer to a World Cup that Norway had no business being in — until Haaland decided they did.

Is Haaland the best player in the world right now? Drop it. 🍿
#WorldCup2026

[EdgeTooEarly @EdgeTooEarly]

Brazil just had their earliest World Cup exit since 1990. A Norwegian with an ice-cold stare sent them home. 🥶

Erling Haaland. Two goals. 71st minute. 79th minute. Brazil 1-2 Norway. Five-time champions. Out. In the Round of 16. Against a country that had never — never — reached a World Cup quarter-final before this tournament.

Haaland didn't celebrate. He stood there. Arms crossed. Blank face. While Brazil's players collapsed on the pitch. The celebration went viral for what it didn't do. No screaming. No sliding. No shirt off. Just a man who expected to win. 😐

Here's the thing that gets me. Brazil had 62% possession. More shots. More corners. More of everything except goals. Haaland touched the ball maybe fifteen times all game. Two of them ended up in the net. Efficiency isn't pretty. Efficiency is cold. And Haaland is the coldest player at this World Cup.

He's now tied with Messi and Mbappé at 7 goals. Messi is 39. Mbappé is 25. Haaland is 22. The Golden Boot race is three generations fighting for the same trophy. The old king. The prince. And the terminator. 🎯

Norway vs England next. Haaland vs Bellingham. The two best players in the world right now. One of them is going home. The other is one step closer to a World Cup that Norway had no business being in — until Haaland decided they did.

Is Haaland the best player in the world right now? Drop it. 🍿
#WorldCup2026

[EdgeTooEarly @EdgeTooEarly]

@FabrizioRomano 👏

[EdgeTooEarly @EdgeTooEarly]

Which one do you think it will be? 👀

Are you betting with the market or riding with the crowd? Drop your take below.🥲

[EdgeTooEarly @EdgeTooEarly]

I took Morocco against the Netherlands. Not because I believed in them. Because the odds made no sense. 😐

Netherlands sat at 64% to advance. Ten goals in group stage, Gakpo flying. On paper it was clean. But knockout football doesn't care about paper. Pressure hits. Legs get heavy. Favorites tighten. Dogs run free.

This Morocco side — 2022 semifinalists who pushed Portugal and Spain to the brink — wasn't a real underdog. The crowd priced reputation. I priced the format. 🎯

Gakpo scored first. 1-0. Stomach dropped. Almost closed the position right there. But the thesis held: Morocco wasn't broken, they were waiting. The Dutch celebrated too early.

Stoppage time. Diop header. 1-1.
Penalties. Bounou saves. Saibari buries it. Morocco through. Netherlands out. Earliest exit ever. 💀

The money was nice, but what I really won was proof — proof I could stand on the other side. Against the favorite. Against the group chat. Against the entire timeline.

Most people never take that side. They ride with the crowd because it feels safe. The market eats them alive every single World Cup.

The hardest move isn't calling the top. It's being right when everyone says you're wrong.

What's the one you got right that everyone said was wrong? Drop it. 🍿

[EdgeTooEarly @EdgeTooEarly]

I took Morocco against the Netherlands. Not because I believed in them. Because the odds made no sense. 😐

Netherlands sat at 64% to advance. Ten goals in group stage, Gakpo flying. On paper it was clean. But knockout football doesn't care about paper. Pressure hits. Legs get heavy. Favorites tighten. Dogs run free.

This Morocco side — 2022 semifinalists who pushed Portugal and Spain to the brink — wasn't a real underdog. The crowd priced reputation. I priced the format. 🎯

Gakpo scored first. 1-0. Stomach dropped. Almost closed the position right there. But the thesis held: Morocco wasn't broken, they were waiting. The Dutch celebrated too early.

Stoppage time. Diop header. 1-1.
Penalties. Bounou saves. Saibari buries it. Morocco through. Netherlands out. Earliest exit ever. 💀

The money was nice, but what I really won was proof — proof I could stand on the other side. Against the favorite. Against the group chat. Against the entire timeline.

Most people never take that side. They ride with the crowd because it feels safe. The market eats them alive every single World Cup.

The hardest move isn't calling the top. It's being right when everyone says you're wrong.

What's the one you got right that everyone said was wrong? Drop it. 🍿

[ライブドアニュース @livedoornews]

【号泣】ブラジル敗退…34歳ネイマールの涙が反響「もらい泣き」「これが最後かも」
https://t.co/m1GfceVgeG

ノルウェーに敗れ、98年フランス大会のリベンジならず。ネイマールのプレー時間は37分程度だったが、後半ATにPKを決め4大会連続ゴールを達成するなど、最後に見せ場を作った。

[EdgeTooEarly @EdgeTooEarly]

@livedoornews

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

⚡️ NEW: Nasdaq-listed K Wave Media has sold its remaining 88 $BTC to repay $6M in debt, exiting Bitcoin entirely after once targeting a 10,000 BTC treasury.

[EdgeTooEarly @EdgeTooEarly]

@Cointelegraph Harsh reality for corporate BTC holders.

[CZ 🔶️ BNB - Parody @czbinanceprd]

satoshi, if you're watching - it's time.

move your coins. protect bitcoin.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: Oil has officially fallen below $68.50 for the first time in 4 months.

Oil has now completely erased its US-IRAN war premium.

[OKX @okx]

It's a new day for regulatory clarity and digital assets in Europe.

We're in major cities across towns this week. Come find us.

July 1st. It's time to switch.