@Salingerblue @simpleplan90s @ChiCyph80 From a recent Silver Bulletin.
"So even if a poll thatโs known to lean toward Donald Trump or Kamala Harris gets a large weight in our forecast, itโs often being adjusted heavily on the backend to correct for that house effect."
@williamletsus@catturd2@williamletsus, A link or reference to the reports you've heard would be appreciated (I'm curious).
True that anyone can be Speaker, including Ryan, but he doesn't become so automatically.
US Const. Art. I Sec. 2 Cl. 5: "The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker..."
@BareAtheist @briantylercohen Hardline members of the Freedom Caucus who are part of the #NeverKevin McCarthy movement continue to dig their heels in and refuse to support him. The Republican majority in the House is too narrow to overcome this.
@4tybin Worth remembering that /all/ House representatives need to be sworn in. The term for the House is only two years. The fact that someone ran for the same seat (or essentially the same, 'cuz redistricting) doesn't change the fact that their previous term ended.