@hussmanjp Hi John, your lineup of technical factors aligns perfectly with two precise Fibonacci patterns and a quarter-century pattern, all set to resolve within ±2 weeks of last week. As a teaser, dividing the time span from 9/3/29 to the top on 1/31/25, a .382/.618 ratio points to 2/7/66
@winning177@hussmanjp Ask Ken Fisher for his track record and they will BS you about something. ΅We have no single performance records because everyone is treated individually...΅ Ha'ha'ha
@CyclesFan Probably not a good reason for stating market is nowhere near a major top. Don’t be a puppy. Look at history. There were major tops in Dec ’61, Dec ’72, and Nov ’68 with readings on SPX monthly RSI of 73.07, 71.64, and 70.63 respectively, with no divergences. Check it out!
@agbrickman Tested thesis and could not match the results—slightly different parameters. No access database of Total Issues on NYSE. TEST-SPX daily gain greater than 2.1% with a/d ratio <1.61. Since 2000, 17 occurrences, most of them insignificant eg 6-8-23, 10-15-21 BUT 3-21-00 and 3-9-00!
@hussmanjp For only the third time in the history of the NDX (NASDAQ 100), the ratio of NDX (tech) to DJIA (high caps) closed the week > 46%. The only other weekly closes > 46% occurred on March 10, 2000 and November 19. 2021. All three closes are on the attached chart as Vertical lines!!
@hussmanjp What I am not getting is the results for 2023. Are you saying the parameters were met earlier this year and these are the results? I don't think so, so why are there already results given for 2023?
@hussmanjp Fascinating chart, John, but help me with the interpretation. If I read it right, you are saying that every time since 1992 that your five parameters have been met, here are the results over the next 15 trading sessions. Those results are truly remarkable for the past 6 occasions
@hussmanjp This chart is simple—a ratio pf NDX/DJIA, spec vs conservative. Today's ratio was matched in only 2 other weeks the past 50 years or longer. March 10,2000 and November 19, 2021. WOW!
@hussmanjp For those of you who enjoy criticizing John, you should be told that he is making observations.if they are accurate, and I have found them to be very accurate, then you have no criticisms to make. His elite valuation models observe...they're not designed to call tops or bottoms.