Telemachus

Energy strategy expert and entrepreneur/investor.

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@GreenRupertRead Is there a reason you went with a hot take before bothering to find out the journalistic ethics that would prevent broadcasting the “6th episode” and then doubled down asking people to retweet your demand that the BBC tarnish its reputation for propriety?

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@LarfUrkelle Management has consistently avoided portraying anything more than a balanced view and avoided hype.

While there is always potential for an operation to go wrong, it is very unlikely that the workover will have anything other than a positive result.

Expecting increased flow

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

$PANR, $PTHRF Some people have contacted me, asking whether I‘ve turned bearish as I was not challenging the bears.

For the record, I have not sold any shares, do not intend to sell any shares and am increasing liquidity by selling other things so I can buy more Pantheon shares

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@Patrick74854242 @David37655174 There is no pre-established selling plan as far as I know

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@David37655174 Not a lawyer but I think they would be prevented from buying (or selling) by insider trading rules? However, if they had some cleansing event, I too would hope they would be buyers at this price.

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@Ffff83638718 @GeodesRock49 @SanfordChee @BADBOOP75 Danger is to attribute too much precision and certainty to a “rule of thumb” than is merited. If a gynaecologist says human gestation is 9 months then sack them if the baby is born two weeks late? 40% is an estimate. Based on well performance mgmt thinks 60% a better estimate

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@equivestinvest @GeodesRock49 @SanfordChee @BADBOOP75 For non technical folks (which is the Equivest audience) the term unconventional seems to be used (even by Permian Basin producers) as vernacular to mean any rock that requires more than a normally perforated vertical well to produce.

Calling Alkaid u/c not biggest error

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@EdwardDiGi @MuffinmanMagic @great_wh_snark @contrarian8888 I don’t think anyone outside the company has the data to answer that question. I know I don’t but there are lots of analogues that would suggest a month after the workover would provide stabilized flows.

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@cnd077 @MuffinmanMagic @great_wh_snark @contrarian8888 Gas lift works by reducing the hydrostatic head in the vertical part of the well. It works equally in wells with laterals as in simple vertical wells.

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@RingsingC @Darcon1974 @MuffinmanMagic @great_wh_snark @contrarian8888 I expect that is why management are confident the gas rate will settle down at a lower level as clean up proceeds.

We are just walking into the tunnel after a brutal first half. Coach’s half time talk and adjustments will see us come back in the second half IMHO

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@MuffinmanMagic @great_wh_snark @contrarian8888 I certainly expect more oil production after the workover as the water cut reduces, the drawdown at the reservoir can be reduced and the gas volumes reduce

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@SmugPatHoncho @RingsingC I didn’t see you or anyone else suggesting there would be any production benefit from gas reinjection so unclear what point you are trying to make or to whom you are responding.

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

$PANR $PTHRF rarely has the expression “it’s a game of two halves” been more applicable. Not much to say until more information available but quietly confident that Alkaid well on track to exceed threshold volumes and even expectation case of 150 bopd/1,000ft

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@RingsingC Even if current gas rate representative - which mgmt indicates they are not, there would be some cost to buying compressors and drilling at least a couple of gas injection wells. However not too material in the overall development scheme to move economic threshold much

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@AF_63A3 @Wefoundloveina2 It is human nature to fill any gap in knowledge with our worst fears rather than a likely outcome (let alone our greatest hopes).

There is not enough information to conclude that either the hydrocarbon mix or the gas rate are a problem and management has not guided negatively…

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@jmrose71 Nothing in the release raises technical concerns. Final results likely to be way better. The company will be trying to work out the actual in situ GOR and W/C progression - must have some idea based on their statement.

Remember, there is always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser…

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@Scot126126 @peakoilcoming Forgive me if I am getting confused but I thought 150 bopd per 1,000 ft was their expectation. I recall Jay saying commercial threshold was a lower production rate (subject to decline rates and oil prices, of course)

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@RogerHyman1 I refer you to my earlier answer to one of the times you posted this question…🙂

[Telemachus @EnergyHobbs]

@StudioPurple2 @8750Capital @Mike59655549 @Scot126126 @MuffinmanMagic That is probably an option (more expensive than regular sand) that would be considered once the lateral continuity is proven. Probably not worth it until they know that profiteroles are off the menu