Josh

Consistently inconsistent

天行健, 君子以自强不息

Risk-Taker

Life Long Learner

[Josh @EphemeralTrade]

It's more important than ever to maximize fricition in life. Do hard things.

[Josh @EphemeralTrade]

Two trends colliding:

People hate AI — it polls worse than ICE.

People love trading — Polymarket & Hype are exploding.

One feels disenfranchising, the other egalitarian.
The opportunity: use AI not to replace traders, but to make everyone trade smarter.

[Tansu Yegen @TansuYegen]

So true☹️

📹 vetoshkin.evgeniy

[Josh @EphemeralTrade]

AI is a parasite of the human mind
Majority of ppl will be replaced by this parasite
Most will be dependent on this parasite to survive
The few will be able to control this parasite as a tool

[Yanis Varoufakis @yanisvaroufakis]

If Evil could tweet, this is what it would!

[Josh @EphemeralTrade]

The market price is always right. It only looks wrong when you're trading on a different time horizon. Don't complain that the market is wrong; figure out why you're in the wrong time frame.

[Adil Haque @AdHaque110]

What a time to be alive.

[Yat Siu @ysiu]

https://t.co/F0WgjgbBs4

[CooperBaggs 💰🍞 @edgaralandough]

you only get:
1 summer with them as a baby
3 as a toddler
5 as a child
3 as a preteen
6 as a teen
so let them run barefoot,
turn on the sprinkler,
cut up the watermelon,
chase fireflies under fading golden skies
because the summers of sticky hands, sun tired kids, and slow evenings filled with the sounds of childhood
do not last forever 🤍

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

We're at the point where we fact check the acting US president with the twitter feed of the IRGC commander.

[Josh @EphemeralTrade]

AI adoption is getting easier

Being human isn't

The hard part is finding your key human skill — and putting in the blood, sweat, and tears to make it world-class by doubling and tripling down on it

[Gavinly @Fengyi1811]

seedance2确实很厉害，可以改编记忆里最悲惨的剧情，几乎能够以假乱真，但是却不能改变已经发生的事，挽回已经失去的人。

[BRICS News @BRICSinfo]

JUST IN: 🇨🇦🇨🇳 Prime Minister Carney says Canada's partnership with China "sets us up well for the new world order."

[🇨🇳XuZhenqing徐祯卿 @XueJia24682]

✨🇨🇳China's Rushen Robot rolls out dedicated elder-care solutions. It works as your reliable home care buddy, managing medication, meal support, health monitoring and more, with full-time attentive care.

[Xie Feng 谢锋 @AmbXieFeng]

A message from China’s traffic police: No speeding, no street racing, no drunk driving!😎

[Josh @EphemeralTrade]

And here we go again

[Yat Siu @ysiu]

Proud to announce our next steps of growing and creating more impact with @animocabrands. It is our mission to deliver digital property rights as we believe it is fundamental to shaping a better future for everyone!
https://t.co/0nwEKU6Wrq

[Josh @EphemeralTrade]

The point of having money is the freedom, not trying to make more money that you don't really need.

[Cobie @cobie]

When ppl claim this I always wonder how they think it happens, or have unrealistic expectations on how much $1bn actually is.

I joined crypto with $200. If I held my initial bitcoin since then and never traded, I would have ~$300k.

If, instead, from that moment I sold the top and bought the bottom of every crypto cycle on Bitcoin, and never paid any taxes, I would have ~$6m USD.

If I put my entire net worth into the Ethereum ICO and never touched it, today I would have ~$150m pre-tax.

While it was definitely possible to have made >$1bn with the opportunities in the market, these versions of reality would also require me to make no mistakes, and have no need to spend $ in real life, or take excessive risk via leverage.

In reality, I grew up in a working class family. I didn’t have a trust fund and I had to pay off my student loan myself. I had a job at Tescos while at high school. After university, I needed to pay rent and fund cost of living and eventually buy a place to live.

I worked at startups for relatively little $ salary, and while a couple have done okay, they still are illiquid and worth nothing until some exit.

Perhaps if I erase a couple of dumb mistakes and drawdowns, or if I had a lil more grind, then my answer would be different today. But it is easy to say this with perfect hindsight vision. It’s easy to see where you could have optimised better, and decisions you made look dumb when the past makes things so obvious.

The truth is I have always optimised for enjoying my life and not going to 0. I never felt like I had a safety net, so it was never possible for me to do anything in any other way. I would probably have less money if I had tried to add more risk or chased $ harder, because being all-in with your entire livelihood is a mental battle and I feel I only win that battle when the stakes are lower.

In writing this, maybe I do understand why CT folks believe this, because modern CT sees crypto as a late-stage lottery ticket farm, where the optimal strategy is to 5x leverage up your portfolio in a hope of catching a good 20% move and then leaving. Or, literally going all-in on the next coin they heard Ansem is buying. So perhaps to them, looking back at the charts, of course that’s what successful folks did.

In reality, I use leverage close to never (and typically to reduce risk rather than add risk — have used it to add risk maybe 3 times in the last 5 years, and maybe 15 times ever). I never go all-in on anything, have only ever done that on BTC and ETH before in the last decade. When I buy other things, I limit risk to tiny amounts, because I treat it as a 0 until proven otherwise (so, always <1% liquid portfolio). Liquid portfolio is also a smaller % of overall portfolio to future-proof against my own fuckups.

Obviously I made a lot of money, I have been here 12 years! CT doesn’t want to hear about “getting rich in a decade” though. I am happy with where I am and have never really cared or optimised for maximising $ earnings, but instead having a nice life that lets me enjoy the game we play together.