Eric Fine

EM economist and bond investor for 30+years

Disclosures:

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@NGurushina Great analysis as usual, thanks.

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@TallDave7 @Brad_Setser @benbawan Well, someone else will as it exhibits reserve currency characteristics.

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@Kazimierz280415 @MarioNawfal For sure. Targeting/energy use the areas for improvement.

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@rdd147 The won is stronger.

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@NGurushina Great/beautiful reference. His iconic “house” is in Brussels, Stolcman Palace.

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@NGurushina South Africa is arguably on a re-rating path. And rarely for major EM sovs these days, their USD bonds have some value! Policy matters!

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@Brad_Setser Whatever it is, the attention to demand for reserves assets is warranted. And one can take a probabilistic and diversified stance relative to most fixed income portfolios dominated by DMs subject to degrees of fiscal dominance and its implications.

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@lugaricano A great, simple, and hopeful point, thank you. I find the same in the US, fwiw.

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@Brad_Setser That’s really hilarious!

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@Convertbond @NGurushina @lisaabramowicz1 So nice!

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@Brad_Setser Yes fx should be more explicit. There are institutional barriers to openly discussing, you know better than anyone.

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@Brad_Setser @RajaKorman I feel that vibe. It’s (CNY and CGBs) a thing either way.

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

I agree intervention timing is good. Golden Week, too. Not my bailiwick, but I did meet BoJ formally over the years. I was struck by some senior folks’ concerns over “trust in banknotes”. I found it both quaint and profound. The policy rate isn’t consistent with FX stability, also. It seems a poster child for fiscal/financial dominance. If it is mapping to FX that’s kinda the definition.

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

The “de-dollarization” club was in full attendance, we RSVP’d “no”. The club was reluctant to understand that the current war scenario could be bullish US economy and USD (thought not duration). Also, EM exporters over importers, there we agree. https://t.co/Uh1GlLj0sX

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@Kazimierz280415 @StefanFSchubert @SBenzell Such an excellent answer.

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@MarekCyzio @LBalcerowicz Can’t be said enough.

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@twiggins7 @mrnobodyPZN @LBalcerowicz @sikorskiradek Agree. More must be done even though was imo. EU did a lot on structural imo. Regardless of whether the EU project is durable.

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

I just want to inject that this discussion is getting to the heart of the matter. And I’m so impressed with the overall community on X Poland (I was immersed long ago, now it’s just an awesome but smaller part of my life). This is despite/because of the blowback I received from my technocratic perspective on the early 1990s. Go Poland!

Anyway, imo It’s fair to worry about the disposition (domicile) of capital sources. But even accepting that, it seems to me that this becomes a political question…build domestic savings if that’s a concern, but don’t just complain that you’re not fit enough yet without a plan to get fit. And 1994 policies made that happen, on the margin at least, and maximally imo. And look at the debt load Poland can sustain with current ratings, whatever the prognosis.

[Eric Fine @EricFine123]

@Kazimierz280415 @michaeljmcnair I would talk to you to make sure I’m right but thanks and I get the point!