Eric Loyall

C.S.O. The SSA Group. C.I.O. Saihbreas Fund. Wrestling with Deflation Vs Inflation. Covering the board for a guaranteed win. The waiting is almost over.

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

@PaulIlyinsky561 @unusual_whales Well, what moves us away from what we fear? The power of “zero expectations”?

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

@JackFarley96 Crazy thought, but it would be fun to see Bessent and Lavrov debate. About…..anything.

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

@me_myself_world Just continued unconditional love please. (Side dish of laughs).

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

@leadlagreport @Hunter0x_x0 100%.

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

@mattrife So you slept > 7 hours?

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

Anyone else have a feeling that GDX and SILJ etc are going to 2x over the next 6 months?

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

@RepThomasMassie Now do that exercise with the prices of food at Canobie Lake Park. :)

[Derek Trotter @DelB0yTr0tter]

SILJ

THE FACTS THAT EVERYONE IS MISSING:

Less than a year ago, average silver AISC ≈ $20/oz.

At $25 silver, miners earned $5/oz.

A 10M oz producer = $50m in annual operating profit.

At $85 silver?

Same producer’s Margin = $65/oz.
Same producer’s operating profit = $650m.

That’s a 1,200% increase in cash flow on a 240% move in the metal.

This is operating leverage in its purest form.

HISTORY IS CRYSTAL CLEAR:

2002 - 2011 silver bull market (facts):

Silver: $4.60/oz in 2002, peaking at $47.94/oz in April 2011. Approximate gain of +900% at the peak.

Pan American Silver (PAAS): approximately $3-$4 per share in 2002, peaking around $40-$45 per share in 2011. Equivalent to roughly 10-12×, or +900% to +1,100% at the peak.

Silver miners (sector wide): historically ~3× the performance of the metal at cycle peaks, driven by operating leverage and earnings re-rating.

Yet in 2025:

Silver +300%
SILJ ~+200% (relative underperformance)

WHY?

Analysts are still modelling $35-40 silver using backward looking val methods.

That changes imminently as miners report earnings at today’s price during Q4 earnings.

First Majestic is the textbook case: high beta, primary silver exposure, cost base largely fixed. Every $1 move in silver now drops disproportionately to free cash flow.

Silver lags gold.

Silver miners lag gold miners.

That lag is not permanent.

Physical demand is visible:

Absolutely nobody can buy physical for $75

This is not a “trade”.

This is a cash flow repricing event.

When earnings print, the equity gap closes violently. That’s what I expect…

Silver miners won’t just catch up after Q4 earnings… They are more than likely to overshoot and possibly lead during the next leg of this silver bull market

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

@SantiagoAuFund Agreed. I wonder if some of the holders in India are dancing.

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

Sometimes it’s ok to do that? Online is…..more casual or something? Brent, you have become a favorite online pitchfork, poking others towards alternative thinking on The Path to the future? But I bet you are all smiles and handshakes with almost all, regardless, similar to Peter? OR, maybe I just like Peter because I am so invested in metals. Dunno. I think you are both interesting and great.

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

@TaviCosta A person could just buy some options on SILJ? Is that an asymmetrical bet here? Just for fun?

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

@SantiagoAuFund I like this significantly more than your Pitchfork-extremist-thinking-Posts. But I like those too. :)

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

@SantiagoAuFund @PeterSchiff Congrats to you too. You’ve recommended gold all along, somehow some people miss this.

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

@bryan_johnson “The imagination is not up to the task of understanding unique feelings or emotions”. So unless you’ve been there, you can’t say “I understand”. You can say “I am here with you.”

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

@theUMreal @grok @NoLimitGains Fun 2 Ship

[Ben Rickert @Ben__Rickert]

Samsung in South Korea has just launched a solid state silver carbon anode battery with a 900 mile range and 9 minute charging. This will make the current lithium ion battery paradigm irrelevant.

There is already a structural mining deficit in silver. This shift represents a fundamental change in demand.

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

@hendry_hugh Yep. Drop AI into a humanoid robot - lookout.

[Gold Telegraph ⚡ @GoldTelegraph_]

BREAKING NEWS

INDIA'S LARGEST PRECIOUS METALS REFINERY RAN OUT OF SILVER STOCK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ITS HISTORY DUE TO HIGH DEMAND FROM INDIAN CUSTOMERS

Wow...

Read that again.

[Chris Marcus @ArcadiaEconomic]

And now the #SILVER's starting to get shipped back to London after the LBMA got its teeth kicked in this week....

[Eric Loyall @EricLoyall]

@jameshenryand SANGUINE. That is how you should be feeling…..and its is going to feel (something more) if this moves towards mania.