EricThe4th

“Ratio” - Chuck Grassley

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

@CZCowboy1986 @RedEaglePatriot Every poll is showing Talarico ahead or tied except for Republican internals

This is objectively looking terrible for Paxton especially if the massive spending is hardly moving the needle for him.

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

A 26 point favorability gap is absolutely insane if it is remotely true.

Cruz underperformed by a decent amount in 2024 when the favorability gap between him and Allred was 13 points according to exit polling.

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

Republicans are 6 times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably (32%) than Democrats do Talarico (5%) — Fox News Poll

Net Favs
🔵 James Talarico: +8 (52-44)
🔴 Ken Paxton: -18 (40-58)

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

@PollTracker2024 For some reason Fox LV screens in these polls have been more Republican than the RV screens.

El-Sayed also did better with RV than LV

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

@AlbertBalido @IAPolls2022 This poll was fielded after outside PACs began dropping tons of money into the race and Talarico has stayed at 51%.

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

@PollTracker2024 Abbott expanded his lead by 4 points while there was little movement in the Senate race from the last poll in July

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

@MetsFanInTexas You predicted Talarico getting the flu?

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

Imagine showing this to someone in November 2024

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

🚨 Cook Political Report moves two governor races toward Democrats

• TX GOV: Likely R → Lean R
• FL GOV: Likely R → Lean R

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

@RedEaglePatriot This just seems like anecdotal evidence since the vast majority of people don’t put up yard signs.

I can drive through a town of 20,000 people and see 10 yard signs of a candidate but that tells me pretty much nothing besides that there are 10 enthusiastic supporters.

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

@PresidentBlumph Vibes of “Ashley Hinson is expected to lead in the Marist poll”

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

@Socdem_Michael It’s an internal with an insanely partisan write-up. That doesn’t give people much confidence in putting their money on Paxton.

The Maine Senate markets moved towards Susan Collins because a non-partisan reputable pollster showed Collins +3.

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

@MattMakesItWork @RedEaglePatriot I’m entirely convinced this poll was released to push an agenda and calm the narrative that Paxton is losing

This was literally in the write-up

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

@hunter_joh80957 @BananaRep405 Yes Texas is still a fairly red state but sometimes the opposing party can pull off a win in unique circumstances.

Paxton is a very controversial Republican and this is a blue wave year. Republicans are dumping tons of money into Texas because they know the race is competitive.

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

@politics_watch1 Brown +5

Acton +3

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

@PollTracker2024 Oklahoma Senate poll wow

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

@realPrestonHill Another tie but I wouldn’t be surprised by a decent shift since their last poll since it was all the way back in June.

[EricThe4th @Eric_The4th]

@PollTracker2024 Ohio, Iowa and Alaska probably got polled as well