Erin B.

Interests: Investment Management Research, Education & Trading.
Not an expert. Biased. No advice. Feed likes & RT ≠ Endorsement. For edutainment only. DYOR!

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

Top 2025 Lesson: The main purpose of a #HedgeFund is to minimize drawdowns in bear markets. The dream is to outperform benchmarks. This slide &🧵explains Real #Alpha and how to get it.
Happy Holidays!🎄See U in 2026
#Investing #TradingStrategy #BearMarket #SPX #Bonds #Gold #BTC

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

@SoulzBTC trading plan

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

@SoulzBTC trading

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

@BharukaShraddha Claude

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

@MarkNewtonCMT Mark, I think the real reason is a shift in allies spending from US to other sources. For example, Canada used to spend 70% of its defense budget on US companies, now it is 30%. Rising trade & other tensions among NATO allies offsets current budget, thus asking $1.5T for 2027.

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

@DrJStrategy Bragging rights: Was I generally right?
https://t.co/GlxgiJihXa

Here is how I avoided the April 2025 crash and August correction - Thanks to my mentor.

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

@DrJStrategy I understand the bullishness James, but one scenario: Election melt-up ~10%, then a correction ~ 25% before the next bull market. Why? Most underestimate the impact of Gov spending cuts +Mass deportation +tariff + GeoP on growth & sentiment= Euphoria > Panic > Recovery> Bull Run

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

For the pundits who said tariffs are not inflationary. The debate is settled = The Tariffs have inflationary impact
https://t.co/4N4iNQq5ZI

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

"What most economists miss, including Wall St & Fed staff is: Tariffs are inflationary in the beginning (force vendors to raise prices to protect profit) & deflationary later (reduce demand on less purchasing power). Timing? Depends on rate of change of tariff hikes. - Med Jones

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

2K: AI bubble
08: Private equity bubble burst
70s: Volatile inflation, oil & weak labor = stagflation = SPX & Bonds boom & bust
40s: Wars + reflating debt & YCC
-> Rolling industrial bear markets (Software, Private Equity, Recruitment,..
Alpha? Be Agile = Buy bottoms & sell tops

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

SPX down ~7% looks like a regular pullback, but under the hood there is a vicious rolling bear market. Macro is not good = combines assets & sectorial stress from 2000, 2008,1970s & 1940s (Ask how?) Be safe: When in doubt stay out, or be agile (know what to trade & for how long)

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

@AlfieJCarter Code

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

@PeterLBrandt @PeterSchiff Relief rally, but no the bottom yet.

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

And another one - in Europe this time.
https://t.co/PZ0STcLXSo

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

🚨Risk Alert: Pension funds investing trillions of dollars in Private Equity junk debt instruments, including CLO floating interest rate! Even worse, PE firms are now lobbying to access your 401K. What will happen when bankruptcies rise? Another bail out?! Beware of the risks

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

Another one!
https://t.co/IJWmiytMtP

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

Here we go again: 😅
https://t.co/r2zl3JDG0a

[Barchart @Barchart]

JP Morgan has launched a basket of credit default swaps designed to let hedge funds bet against the debt of $GOOGL, $AMZN, $ORCL, $META, and $MSFT 🚨🚨

Big Short 2 Coming? 🤔

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

OpenAI seeking new funds for its cash-burning operation, promising private equity ~18% returns + forming JVs to hide the debt off balance sheet pre-IPO. The diagram not showing all financial connections = Masking System Risk + Contagion + X = The definition of a #BlackSwan

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

Another two. Told you it was not over. Know what you own. 2026 is a flush of risky assets and cheap opportunities arise after the flush. Be careful of Wall St repackaging and masking bad credit again. DYOR!
https://t.co/gCts2s7Ccy

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

and... another one!
https://t.co/oEWgerEAsJ

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

@LukeGromen @TommyThornton Barring news cycle manipulation, all correlations go to 1 tomorrow (negative) except for VIX, $SGOV and cash equivalent. What about oil? It should be up, but not sure, considering Bessent undercover futures manipulation and news headlines games.

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt @Seeking_Alpaca @DariusDale42 @CyclesWithBach If oil supply destruction is not resolved soon & no sufficient fiscal & monetary support (due debt or fear of inflation), I would not be surprised to see global recession. International diversification will not help. Only agile idiosyncratic trades can work.

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt @Seeking_Alpaca @DariusDale42 @CyclesWithBach ST, you might get an oversold rally, you might get bullish on idiosyncratic stocks, but aggregate macro is bad until additional fiscal & /or monetary stimulus

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

@MarkNewtonCMT @Ritholtz This is normal behavior. Gold rallies on risk, when risk hits investors raise liquidity. Economy is weakening, gold will drop until the next bailout. and it will rally again to new highs.

[Erin B. @ErinEducational]

@RyanDetrick BDC ≠ Lehman, I agree. But "US economy is solid"?! You are looking in rear mirror, even then manipulated BLS data does not show solid economy. Markets are forward looking... Would not be surprised of market is -20%. Be safe!