BREAKING: 🇺🇸 President Trump says he had a very productive meeting with President Xi on his three-day visit to the US on AI and other matters.
The details will be reportedly disclosed on Monday.
BREAKING : $700 billion has been added to US stocks, metals, and crypto in the last 15 minutes after Reuters reports US and Iran are exploring a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
What is even happening in the US?
S&P 500 jumped +0.5% in just 5 minutes after Reuters reported US and Iran are discussing a phased plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil crashed -3% in the same window.
But both moves started reversing right after the headline settled.
Same thing is happening in bonds.
The US Treasury has boosted its bond buybacks by 3x, but yields don't care. They keep hitting new multi-decade highs every single day.
Controversial take: these are not human trades.
These are algorithm driven sell offs and rallies, and the humans behind those algorithms step in to reverse the move once they realize it's just another fake, repeated headline.
🇺🇸 Key Events This Week:
1. Monday, BOJ Monetary Policy Minutes:
Any signal of further rate hikes could narrow the U.S.-Japan rate gap and impact global bond markets.
2. Wednesday, PCE Inflation:
The Fed’s preferred inflation metric will show how much consumers are spending and whether inflation pressures remain high.
3. Wednesday, GDP:
Stronger growth could give the Fed more room to keep rates higher.
4. Thursday, ISM Manufacturing PMI:
A hotter reading would signal expanding manufacturing activity and stronger economic growth.
5. Friday, Payrolls:
A strong jobs report would show the labor market remains resilient, supporting the case for higher rates.
Together, this will shape the Fed’s next rate decision and next major move in US treasury yields.
BREAKING: US and China agree to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods and set up a new channel for AI incidents, following Trump's meeting with Xi.
🚨THE BOND MARKET IS FLASHING A MAJOR WARNING
The 10-year Treasury yield just surged above 5.20% for the first time in 19 years.
It is now up almost 30 basis points in just 2 days, marking one of the fastest bond selloffs in years.
The last time yields were around these levels was in 2007, the same year US economy entered recession that eventually became the Global Financial Crisis.
But this move isn't happening for no reason.
September's flash PMI just hit a 5-year high, inflation pressures are rising again and markets are pricing in a more hawkish Fed.
At the same time, oil remains near $100 and massive government borrowing continues to put pressure on the bond market.
This is why 5.20% matters.
The 10-year Treasury is the benchmark behind mortgage rates, corporate borrowing and valuations across financial markets.
The higher it goes, the more pressure builds across the entire financial system.
Something eventually has to absorb that pressure, either yields come back down or something starts breaking in the financial system.
BREAKING: Treasury Secretary Bessent is pushing the Fed to cut rates, telling them inflation is not a real threat because of AI.
He says AI productivity gains and deregulation will keep prices in check, and that core inflation has already stayed subdued in recent months.
🚨 There is no stopping US bond yields.
The 30-year bond yield just hit a new 22-year high at 5.525%
Yields are now moving like AI stocks, straight up, no matter what gets thrown at them.
BREAKING: 🇮🇳 Over ₹6.064 trillion ($63.2 BILLION) has been wiped out from Indian stocks as the NIFTY falls -1.6%.
The crash was triggered by new proposed caps on insurance sales commissions, causing a sharp sell off in financial and insurance stocks.
BREAKING: Turkey's fund crisis has trapped 455,758 investors, with $18 billion now stuck in over 100 funds being liquidated.
No one knows how much of that $18 billion investors will actually get back.
🚨Oracle might be in big trouble.
Its credit default swaps just hit a record high, and its 2056 bonds are now yielding over 8% for the first time.
Oracle is one downgrade away from junk status.
If that happens, $120 billion of its bonds get automatically pulled from investment-grade indexes.
This comes right after Oracle's force majeure notice on its New Mexico data center, and while long-term US yields are hitting multi-decade highs.
This isn't just an Oracle problem.
Credit default swaps are rising across Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and SpaceX too.
The market is starting to worry about how this entire AI buildout is being financed.
BREAKING: OpenAI's AI agents reportedly went rogue and accessed multiple US government websites without the company realizing for months, per NYT.
The agents reportedly used credentials found online to access Census Bureau data and also interacted with SEC and Commerce Department systems.
BREAKING: Global money supply just hit a new all time high of $103.66 TRILLION.
Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, and PBOC alone added $1 trillion in August, the 10th straight monthly increase.
More money printed means more money flowing into assets like stocks, gold, and Bitcoin.