📍 $GLN team is in Las Vegas for Fastmarkets
A reminder that JP Vargas de la Vega and the Galan team are on the ground at Fastmarkets Global Lithium, Battery & Critical Materials.
The event wraps up tomorrow at Red Rock Resort.
Attending? Reach out to connect.
#Lithium#ASX
#Lithium price jump despite the resumption of the CATL mine highlights that the market had already aggressively priced in the supply return, triggering a classic "sell the rumor, buy the fact" short squeeze. More fundamentally, it signals that robust downstream battery demand
CATL's Jianxiawo #lithium mine is reportedly back in production as of 29 Jun. However, GFEX price jumped 8.36% to CNY 163k the very next day. What does that tell you about the fundamentals of the lithium market? ;)
Some random thoughts on the lithium market as i sip my morning coffee!
The problem is that at the moment, there are only high quality assets that are operating. There's not a healthy spread of producers across the cost curve. There are no mid to low cost producers that can suddenly be turned on. And that's largely due to the recent rapid recovery in the lithium price and only the ones that survived the last down cycle staying online.
Even the expansions, P2000 from PLS for example, which has existing infrastructure and is lower risk, is going to take several years to come online.
The issue with this is, once the market swings into a deficit (like we are in now), due to the lack of quality assets that are able to come online, the tonnes come from marginal, high cost, price sensitive projects.
This creates major instability and is very different to how most mature commodity markets behave (copper, Iron etc.). When the price rises, the extreme marginal tonnes rush in, when it softens slightly these tonnes exit. So we are just continually adding and removing unstable high cost tonnes.
There are four main restarts/starts that are set to take place this year. DVP's pioneer dome, MIN's Bald Hill, Ngungaju and Core lithium's Finniss project. They could do a combined total of ~34kt this year.
Pioneer Dome for example is going to be a DSO project, which means they aren't processing the ore themselves, they are selling ore ~1.2% Li2O grade.
Just in June this year, they announced the FID for the start. The price assumption they've used is US$26,000/t China. Now the problem with this is, due to the recent cyclical price dip, the futures is now at US$22,000/t.
If the lithium price keeps falling, it's possible that a large majority of these restarts (~34kt of LCE) won't go ahead.
So if you take out 34kt of LCE, you're just getting higher lithium prices and repeating the same cycle.
The faster the market grows, those marginal tonnes become an increasingly smaller proportion of total demand, making each cycle harder to balance than the last. Therefore, the price needs to go higher and stay there to incentivise new low cost projects to come online (excluding some low risk expansions from existing mines). If it doesn't, then prices could boom back to 2022 levels due to the combination of the pool of readily available high cost projects becoming increasingly scarce and the lag to build new mines.
Also the fear of Jianxiawo being turned on is totally nonsensical. It's just an excuse to help drive the lithium price down. Why do we care so much about Jianxiawo coming back online (which would do about ~25kt this year), but nobody batted an eye lid when Bald Hill, Finniss, Pioneer dome and Ngungaju said they'd come online this year (which is higher at ~34kt this year).
Also, as I've said many times before, even if it does come back online, due to the rapid growth of the market, it won't have the same effect as it did last time it was operating. That lever has been pulled.
Cheers for reading!☕️
Great catching up with the @GalanLithium team at Fastmarkets.
To us, the interesting question is whether investors are still pricing Argentine brines for the Argentina of 2-4 years ago, rather than the Argentina that exists today.
What do you think? Comment below.
We think RIGI, easier capital repatriation, first LiCl sales ahead, and a high-grade, low-impurity resource at Hombre Muerto West make $GLN worth watching.
Full disclosure, we are shareholders and this is not financial advice. DYOR.
Here's our discussion: https://t.co/U2LJVFl0KA
On the sidelines of the @Fastmarkets Global Lithium, Battery & Critical Minerals Conference in Las Vegas, USIBC and Fastmarkets convened a high-level U.S.-India Critical Minerals Security Roundtable, bringing together leaders across the value chain to advance collaboration in extraction, processing, recycling, R&D, finance, and technology partnerships.
Participants highlighted opportunities across the critical minerals value chain, ranging from extraction and feedstock management to advanced battery manufacturing, while underscoring U.S.-India efforts to strengthen resilient supply chains, drive innovation, and expand industry-government collaboration.
We were honored to hear from Shri Sandeep Kadam, Joint Secretary & Head of the National Critical Minerals Mission, @MinesMinIndia, alongside representatives from India’s National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS), Khanij Bidesh India Ltd (KABIL India), and @DiversifyNevada's Mel Sheldon.
Special thanks to our @Fastmarkets partners Raju Daswani, Bansri Shah, and Hannah Burke-Tomlinson, as well as participants including Venkee Sharma (@Aquatech ), David Dickson (@lake_resources), Kunal Mamik (@MorganStanley), Michael Moats (@MissouriSandT), Mohammad Sadiq, and Sukanya Chakraborti.
@USAmbKeshap@sandymaini@KaruturiPradeep
#FastmarketsGLBCM #CriticalMinerals #Lithium #BatteryMaterials #USIndia #SupplyChains
Seasonality in cyclic sectors like Lithium and Uranium is all part of the investing landscape. A great example below from an analysis by the Uranium Insider himself, Justin Huhn. Understanding that seasonal dips like these are generally followed by sharp rises is key!
Special recording today with full team @GalanLithium@Fastmarkets.
Online next week on #RockStockChannel
✅Upstream capturing almost all the lithium margin
✅Entering the back end re-rating phase of the Lassonde curve - ie, moving from “emerging project” to “producer” on #RKEquity scoreboard…
✅ Mr market under-appreciating Argentina’s de-risking under Millei
Not advice. DYOR
$GLN.AX
Lake conducts regular water monitoring, witnessed by the local community in Catamarca. The company also presented the process for public consultation with regards to the Kachi project's EIA. Successful meetings and positive feedback from the Catamarca government!
$LKE $LLKKF
$LKE MD & CEO, David Dickson and Barbara Cozzi, Lake Corporate Affairs for Argentina, were delighted to meet recently with Catamarca Governor @RaulJalil_ok & Minister of Mining of Catamarca, Teresita Regalado, regarding the Kachi project, its EIA and power options
$LLKKF
Lithium bulls eye demand support as China heads for busy season: https://t.co/FBk5qtiCTu
"CRU sees carbonate rising to an average of $33,900 a ton in the third quarter, up from $22,800 in the current quarter, while Benchmark Minerals reckons prices could reach $30,000 this year. Citigroup’s analysts says prices could test 250,000 yuan ($36,976), most likely in August to September. That compares with China’s latest spot price at 165,500 yuan in data published by Asian Metal Inc."
It turns out that now analysts from companies that monitor lithium are beginning to approach my Dec 2023 forecast numbers, although many months later. What is most astonishing is the latest 25% jump for 2026 by Benchmark Minerals, while insisting that in 2027 there will still be an oversupply of #lithium.
“YPF y Tesla”
Porque YPF y Tesla firmaron un acuerdo para explorar oportunidades conjuntas en infraestructura de carga rápida, almacenamiento de energía e innovación tecnológica.
El acuerdo fue anunciado por Horacio Marín tras visitar la Gigafactory de Tesla en Texas.
Horacio Marín anunció un acuerdo con Tesla tras reunirse con ejecutivos de la compañía de Elon Musk en Texas.
El acuerdo firmado entre ambas empresas busca analizar proyectos vinculados a redes de carga rápida para vehículos eléctricos y sistemas de almacenamiento energético. Son dos de los negocios que más podrían crecer durante la próxima década a nivel global.
Mientras Argentina impulsa grandes inversiones en energía y Vaca Muerta, la empresa también busca posicionarse en segmentos asociados a la electrificación y la infraestructura energética del futuro.
In May our #BESS tracker surpassed 10,000 projects... this accounts for over 3TWh of utility-scale BESS, online and in the pipeline.
📈 The database has grown rapidly, the first 5,000 projects accounted for 1TWh of BESS, meanwhile the second 5,000.... nearly 2TWh!
#battery
Mysteel daily reporting on China #lithium market 20260615👇
Please click the link below if you wish to know more information about China's lithium-ion #battery industry
https://t.co/7C4Ulziw90
84% of Asia already leapfrogged the US in electrification, with electricity making up 26% of Asia's final energy mix compared to just 21% in the US
And that's just the start: Asia is now electrifying 5 times faster